840
FXUS62 KMLB 260550
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
150 AM EDT Wed Jun 26 2024

...New AVIATION...

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFs)
Issued at 150 AM EDT Wed Jun 26 2024

Mainly VFR. A weak offshore flow will be present across the area
today, with W/NW winds around 5-7 knots this morning. This will
still allow the east coast sea breeze to form toward early
afternoon, with winds along the coast becoming E/SE around 8-10
knots near to after 18Z. Scattered to numerous showers and storms
will develop across east central FL, with greatest coverage
occurring with sea breeze/storm outflow collisions near to west of
I-95. Weakening offshore steering winds will still be able to
push storms offshore into early this evening, but some lingering
scattered convection will continue across the area into the
evening hours. For now have VCTS at most TAF sites from 18-00Z
(17-23Z at KLEE), with VCSH then continuing through 03Z. Tempo
IFR/MVFR conditions will occur with any of this activity.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 925 PM EDT Tue Jun 25 2024

Forecast held up very well this afternoon and evening, with no
significant changes needed. Storms stayed west enough of Kennedy
Space Center for the GOES-U rocket launch to sneak out just before
anvil moved in aloft. Slow moving and stationary storms produced
widespread rainfall amounts 1-2" and locally high amounts 3-5"
along a fairly contiguous band from Harmony to Orange City, the
latter of which also saw the strongest storm of the day that
briefly produced nickel sized hail. Locally high rainfall amounts
up to 3" were also seen from near Kenansville to near Country Hill
Estates. A couple stubborn storms near Leesburg and area of debris
showers linger on early tonight, but should all dissipate by
midnight. A quiet rest of the night is forecast.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 307 PM EDT Tue Jun 25 2024

Current-Tonight... Surface ridge axis will continue to shift
slightly south and eastward. SW flow today has shifted SE/S this
afternoon behind the sea breeze, and will shift back to SW
overnight. Wind speeds will remain light, with 10 KT or less. Seas
will be 2 ft across the nearshore waters and 2-3ft in the offshore
waters. Scattered showers and lightning storms will be possible this
afternoon through the overnight, especially in the offshore waters.

Wednesday-Sunday... (Modified Previous Discussion) Light offshore
flow shifts SE/S each afternoon as the east coast sea breeze
develops. Background flow then becomes southerly on Saturday and
Sunday, backing onshore with a developing sea breeze in the
afternoon. Winds remain light through the period, generally 10 KT
or less, increasing slightly on Sunday with speeds around 10 KT.
Seas of 2 ft persist with occasional seas up to 3 ft across the
far offshore waters. Scattered to numerous showers and scattered
lightning storms are forecast each afternoon and early evening.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  93  76  94  76 /  60  40  60  20
MCO  93  76  92  77 /  60  50  60  10
MLB  91  76  93  76 /  60  30  60  20
VRB  91  74  93  74 /  60  30  60  10
LEE  94  76  93  77 /  50  20  60  10
SFB  94  76  93  77 /  60  40  60  10
ORL  94  77  93  77 /  60  40  60  10
FPR  91  74  93  74 /  60  30  60  10

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Haley
AVIATION...Weitlich