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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL
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410 FXUS62 KMLB 301847 AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 247 PM EDT Sun Jun 30 2024 .DISCUSSION... Issued at 239 PM EDT Sun Jun 30 2024 KEY MESSAGES: - Turning hotter through the week, with a Moderate to Major HeatRisk each afternoon. Increasing risk of heat-related health impacts from Independence Day into next weekend as high pressure settles over the state. - A 40% to 60% chance for showers and storms through midweek; storm coverage may lessen somewhat toward Independence Day and Friday. Deep tropical moisture will remain in place over the next 72 hours, with PW values exceeding 2" at times. As a trough digs into the Northern Rockies early this week, heights will build across the Southeast U.S. and over Florida. This is forecast to steer Hurricane Beryl, currently east of Barbados, through the Caribbean Sea and to the south of Florida. More information on Beryl can be found at hurricanes.gov. Near the surface, the axis of high pressure will generally hold near or north of Central Florida through late this week before settling southward next weekend. Within this regime, there will be daily chances for showers and lightning storms. However, coverage may lessen later this week as the influence of the ridge is felt over Florida. This would also allow temperatures to turn hotter from the Independence holiday and into next weekend. Thru Tonight...Early start to convection today thanks to deep moisture through the column. Both early morning and late morning Cape soundings showed precip water vales of 2.39". Deep layer North and NE flow will keep the bulk of the convection inland from the coast with a steering flow toward the S/SW. Heavy rain accumulating up to 3 inches in a short period will cause temporary flooding issues. Have not seen strong downbursts in the cells though frequent lightning strikes will be common. Boundary collisions in such a moist (low LCL environment) may be able to spin up a brief funnel. Much of the interior has already been or is being worked over currently. The last will be Lake county as combination of east coast breeze and outflow propagate westward. Have drawn the highest PoPs (50 percent) there early this evening then a quiet, muggy night is forecast. Mon-Wed (previous)... Southeasterly flow will tend to prevail with an embedded daily sea breeze. Near-to-above-normal available moisture will support a rinse- and-repeat pattern of daily scattered storms, with 40-50% coverage near the coast and 60-70% coverage over the interior, including Greater Orlando. Beach-goers will likely find quite a bit of dry time. Ridging looks to build across the state, so mid-level temperatures will increase through the period, leading to poorer lapse rates and somewhat less impressive storm cores. Fairly widespread low to mid 90s are forecast, with peak heat indices 102- 107F. Overnight lows will range in the mid 70s, except upper 70s over portions of Greater Orlando and the coast. Thu-Next Weekend (previous)... The global ensemble suite strongly suggests that deep-layer ridging will extend across the Sun Belt, with its axis potentially retreating southward toward Florida by next weekend. This should steer Hurricane Beryl on a WNW track through the Caribbean, well south of Florida. In this scenario, the primary concern appears to be a period of above-normal temperatures while many folks are outdoors. As H85 temperatures approach +20C, statistical guidance is indicating low/mid 90s Thu-Fri and more widespread mid 90s next weekend. As surface high pressure drifts southward, light southerly flow will begin to take shape, pumping in more muggy air (dew points in the mid 70s F). Heat indices may drift closer to our Heat Advisory criteria (108F), particularly next weekend. Our HeatRisk guidance is already reaching into the Major category along and north of Interstate 4. Storm chances during this period drop into the widely scattered range (35-55%), focusing over the interior most afternoons. A handful of ensemble members indicate some mid-level dry air may get kicked southward over the state, which may further limit storm chances on one or more days during this period. Subsidence and warm temperatures aloft will also tend to hinder sustained, deep convection through at least Saturday. && .MARINE... Issued at 239 PM EDT Sun Jun 30 2024 A ridge of high pressure will remain just north of the local Atlantic waters, with predominant south to southeast breezes increasing 10-12 KT each day behind the sea breeze. Winds will turn offshore around 5 KT near the coast in the overnight hours. Seas generally 2 FT or less through Tuesday, then 2-3 FT on Wednesday & Thursday. Scattered showers and isolated lightning storms are possible each day, though there will be a lot of dry time. Offshore-moving storms appear unlikely. Intracoastal and inshore boaters will find a light to moderate chop each afternoon. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFs) Issued at 155 PM EDT Sun Jun 30 2024 The east coast sea breeze has moved inland of the coastal terminals. Low confidence in lightning at the coastal terminals, and have kept mention of VCSH late this afternoon. VCTS continues through the afternoon and evening at the interior terminals with TSRA TEMPOs for reduced VIS/CIGs in convection. VCSH lingering across the interior terminals through the evening until around 03Z. Easterly winds around 7-9 kts become light and variable overnight. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 75 93 77 91 / 20 40 20 50 MCO 74 92 76 92 / 30 50 20 70 MLB 75 92 77 91 / 20 50 20 50 VRB 74 92 76 91 / 20 50 20 60 LEE 76 93 77 93 / 50 60 30 70 SFB 75 94 77 93 / 30 50 20 60 ORL 76 93 77 93 / 30 50 20 60 FPR 74 91 76 91 / 20 60 20 60 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Kelly AVIATION...Law