Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL
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056 FXUS62 KMLB 261441 AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 1041 AM EDT Wed Jun 26 2024 ...New UPDATE... .UPDATE... Issued at 959 AM EDT Wed Jun 26 2024 A few showers are ongoing across the Atlantic waters this morning, mainly south of Cape Canaveral, as well as across the west coast of Florida. Surface observations and satellite imagery show some low and high level clouds streaming across the Florida peninsula. The ridge axis is just to the south, across the Florida Straits, resulting in W/SW flow across the local area today. The east coast sea breeze is forecast to form once again today and move inland. The sea breeze/outflow collision is forecast to be around the I-95 corridor, where the highest rain and storm chances (PoPs 60 percent) occur. Shower and storm activity is then expected to push the activity back towards the coast through late afternoon and into the evening. Some of the CAMs indicate redevelopment west of I-95 will be possible late this afternoon as new outflow boundaries interact with the lagging west coast sea breeze. Much like the last few days, the main storm hazards today will be occasional to frequent lightning, heavy rainfall, and gusty winds up to 35 mph. Temperatures will be hot and muggy today with a Moderate to Major Heat Risk continuing today. Afternoon highs in the low to mid 90s with peak heat indices ranging from 102-106 degrees. Forecast remains on track with only minor updates to the rain and storm chances through tonight. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFs) Issued at 720 AM EDT Wed Jun 26 2024 VFR conditions expected to continue through this morning, with scattered to potentially numerous showers and storms developing into the afternoon, producing tempo IFR/MVFR conditions. Greatest coverage of this activity will be with boundary collisions that are favored toward to just west of the I-95 corridor around mid to late afternoon. Storms will move slowly eastward toward the coast and offshore through sunset, with some isolated to scattered convection potentially lingering across east central FL into the evening. Have kept VCTS at most sites from 18Z-00Z (17-23Z at KLEE), with VCSH lingering through 03Z. HRRR guidance has been trending lower in storm coverage for this afternoon, but have went ahead and added tempo groups from 20-23Z for coastal sites that have a better chance for storms this afternoon. Light W/NW winds 5-7 knots will become E/SE around 8-10 knots along the coast from around 18Z onward as east coast sea breeze forms. && .MARINE... Issued at 359 AM EDT Wed Jun 26 2024 Today-Sunday...Seas around 2 ft gradually increase to 3 ft across the offshore waters Thursday and Friday as an onshore swell increases. Light offshore winds become onshore Saturday before developing a broad southerly component on Sunday. Winds back with the development of the east coast sea breeze each afternoon. A summertime pattern continues with high coverage of showers and storms forecast across the local waters (50-70%) each day. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 93 76 94 76 / 60 40 60 20 MCO 93 76 92 77 / 60 50 60 10 MLB 91 76 93 76 / 60 40 60 20 VRB 91 74 93 74 / 60 30 60 10 LEE 94 76 93 77 / 50 20 60 10 SFB 94 76 93 77 / 60 40 60 10 ORL 94 77 93 77 / 60 50 60 10 FPR 91 74 93 74 / 60 30 60 10 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. && $$ UPDATE...Watson AVIATION...Weitlich