859
FXUS63 KGLD 250459
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1059 PM MDT Mon Jun 24 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Potentially damaging wind gusts with decaying
  showers/thunderstorms through much of tonight.

- Continued hot Tuesday with Heat Advisories continuing in
  Norton and Graham counties.

- Less hot with increasing chances for beneficial rainfall late
  Wednesday afternoon/overnight and again overnight Thursday.

- Quite a bit cooler (slightly below normal daytime
  temperatures) Saturday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 140 PM MDT Mon Jun 24 2024

Tonight...a weather system is forecast to move off the Cheyenne
Ridge and Palmer Divide areas and through parts of the area through
about 3 AM MDT. The primary hazard from any thunderstorm will be
strong, sudden and potentially damaging outflow wind gusts in the 65
to 75 mph range, possibly up to 80 mph per latest WINDEX wind gust
guidance. There could be a few heat bursts, especially overnight and
during the dissipating stages of any showers and/or thunderstorms as
they bring down rather hot temperatures aloft. Low temperatures are
forecast to be in the lower 60s to lower 70s.

Tuesday-Tuesday night...there could be a few thunderstorms a few
hours either side of 00z, in the vicinity of some moisture in the
700-500mb layer and near a frontal boundary. High temperatures are
forecast to be in the upper 90s to around 103 degrees with low
temperatures in the 60s.

Wednesday-Wednesday night...a pretty organized weather system moves
off the Colorado front range and into far eastern Colorado by late
afternoon, supporting 20%-30% chances for showers and thunderstorms.
Overnight, this system continues moving east across the remainder of
the forecast area with 40%-50% pops currently advertised. PWAT
values increase into the 1.3-1.9" range, supporting some beneficial
rainfall. High temperatures are forecast to be in the lower to
middle 90s with low temperatures in the 60s.

Thursday-Thursday night...showers/thunderstorms across the east in
the morning move off with some drying aloft and subsidence with only
20% chances for thunderstorms in the afternoon. Overnight, another
weather system moves through, supporting 40%-60% chances for showers
and thunderstorms. GFS PWAT values through midnight peak in the 1.2-
1.9" range before decreasing. 0-6km winds are generally 15-25kts,
supporting another chance for beneficial rainfall. High temperatures
are currently forecast to be in the 90s. There could be some stratus
lingering across the northeast half of the area through the day
which would greatly impact the temperature forecast with lower
temperatures. Low temperatures are forecast to be in the lower 60s
to lower 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 1231 PM MDT Mon Jun 24 2024

The upper-level ridge looks to remain in place over Texas for the
long-term, potentially moving a bit farther east over the weekend,
but retrograding Sunday evening. A 250mb low pressure system over
northern Montana will cut into the high and cause a southwesterly
jet over the northern Rockies Friday. These features look to move
east throughout the day, but could interact with our area enough to
produce some showers and storms Friday afternoon.

Saturday will see the flow return to zonal as the trough and low
move out of the area to the east. A weak 500mb shortwave looks to
provide us forcing for diurnal showers and storms Saturday and
Sunday. Sunday looks less likely for convection due to the 250mb
ridge returning to the area by Sunday evening.

Guidance is showing a pretty strong signal that another trough will
work into the northwestern CONUS Monday, causing southwesterly flow
during the mid-day Monday. This trough could cause enough forcing,
and remove the ridge just long enough, to cause some moderately
organized convection Monday afternoon and evening, but there is a
lot of uncertainty this far out.

A far as temperatures, Saturday looks to be the coolest, with highs
in the low to mid 80s with Sunday being about 5 degrees warmer. For
Friday and Monday, 90s to near 100 high temperatures look likely.
Monday has potential for being the next very hot day. Overnight
temperatures will only cool into the 60s, with Saturday night being
the coolest.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1054 PM MDT Mon Jun 24 2024

For KGLD & KMCK... VFR conditions are forecast through the
period. The only potential hazard is severe storms tomorrow
afternoon. KMCK has a slightly better chance that KGLD, but both
chances are currently low as guidance varies if there will be
enough moisture and forcing for storms to develop. If they do,
lightning and wind gusts around 55-75 mph would be the main
threats. Otherwise, winds will shift from out of the south, to
out of the west during the morning, then to out of the north
late in the day. If storms do form, be alert for sudden wind
shifts with outflow.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 246 AM MDT Mon Jun 24 2024

Dry conditions are expected over western portions of the Tri State
area this afternoon and again on Tuesday afternoon. The main area of
focus each day will be those locales along/west of Highway 27.

Elevated to near critical fire wx conditions will crop up in these
areas as humidity will lower into the mid and upper teens. Winds
will not reach criteria, but up to 20 mph could occur at times.
There will be southerly flow this afternoon, but a shift to
northerly on Tuesday.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 247 AM MDT Mon Jun 24 2024

With hot conditions expected over the area today, with highs at
least 100F to 106F, there could be some locales coming within a few
degrees of at least tying the daily record(s). The records for
Monday, June 24th listed below are for comparison to the expected
forecast.

                      Monday, 6/24


Goodland KS           109F in 2012

Burlington CO         107F in 1954

Hill City KS          114F in 2012

McCook NE             107F in 1943

Colby KS              107F in 2012

Tribune KS            109F in 2012

Yuma CO               103F in 2002

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Heat Advisory from 1 PM to 8 PM CDT Tuesday for KSZ004-016.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...CA
AVIATION...KAK
FIRE WEATHER...JN
CLIMATE...JN