912
FXUS63 KAPX 150607
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
207 AM EDT Sun Sep 15 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Rain-free weather and summer-like warmth persists through next
  week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 206 AM EDT Sun Sep 15 2024

Pattern Synopsis:

Expansive ridging will continue to dominate the pattern at large
east of the Rockies through the remainder of the weekend. Further
upstream, troughing will dig down the Pacific coast, further
reinforcing said ridging into next week. At the surface, weak
subsidence/little appreciable forcing aloft will keep high pressure
over New England and the Great Lakes through the end of the period.

Forecast Details:

Rain-free weather and warm temperatures persist -- As previous
forecaster discussed, largely a persistence forecast for
northern Michigan today and tonight with no appreciable airmass
change continuing the recent stretch of warm, dry weather across
the region. Forecast highs near 80 along the lakeshores and
low/mid 80s for interior areas are in store for this afternoon,
with localized readings in the upper 80s possible -- most
notably around the TVC area. Calm, clear conditions will once
again allow for efficient radiational cooling overnight,
dropping temperatures into the 50s for most areas tonight into
Monday morning. Typical low-lying cold spots could dip into the
upper 40s with patchy fog possible for some locations.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 206 AM EDT Sun Sep 15 2024

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast:

Troughing will continue to dig along the Pacific coast into early
next week, working to amplify downstream ridging east of the Rockies
and keep it in place through the duration of the period. Thus,
surface high pressure also largely appears to stay put through next
week -- increasing confidence in this extended stretch of summer-
like warmth and rain-free weather persisting into next weekend.
Highs in the upper 70s and 80s are expected each afternoon with
overnight lows ranging from the upper 40s into the 50s. As previous
long term forecaster discussed, warm and dry weather spanning this
long of a period brings about increasingly concerning fire weather
danger over the next 1-2 weeks. Fuels will continue to dry out over
the next week with the potential for minimum RHs dropping below 30
percent during the afternoon.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1145 PM EDT Sat Sep 14 2024

Strong ridging/subsidence/dry will maintain control thru Sunday
night. Aside from some patchy fog/IFR vsbys overnight...VFR
conditions will remain the rule for the next 24 hours. Light SE
winds tonight will strengthen AOB 10 kts on Sunday.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DJC
LONG TERM...DJC
AVIATION...MLR