Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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FXUS63 KAPX 151747

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
147 PM EDT Thu Mar 15 2018

Issued at 955 AM EDT Thu Mar 15 2018

Morning composite analysis reveals deep troughing from the the
Great Lakes into New England...downstream from sharp ridging
across the central CONUS. Surface cold front that slipped through
our area yesterday is now down in the Ohio Valley with NNW flow
and a chillier airmass through the Great Lakes today. With colder
air continuing to spread into the region...we`ve seen an uptick in
lake effect/lake induced snow showers across northern Michigan
this morning...including a heavier but transient band of snow
showers slipping through NW lower Michigan this morning.

NNW flow Lake effect parameters are not too shabby through the
afternoon and a good part of core of neg 14C to neg
16C H8 air slides down through the region (lake induced CAPE
values running a few hundred J/KG) and we retain some better
moisture and cyclonic curvature through the region. Have already
beefed up PoPs through the afternoon across eastern upper and NW
lower MI to account for better coverage and some minor snow
accumulations. Suspect I will have to do the same heading into


.NEAR TERM...(Today through Tonight)
Issued at 246 AM EDT Thu Mar 15 2018

High impact weather potential: None.

Pattern synopsis and forecast:

Weak low pressure and an initial cold front was crossing nrn
Michigan early this morning, associated with a shortwave trough
coming straight out of the north. The antecedent air mass is very
dry per the 00Z APX sounding (0.18" PWAT), and the weak snows seen
on radar were not reaching the ground. The low level air mass has
not gotten cold enough for a lake response just yet, but a secondary
cold front with temperatures sinking toward -12C in stronger
northerly winds was pushing through Lake Superior. There have been
some better reflectivities seen on MQT radar, but only some spotty
observations reporting mainly flurries. Even further upstream was
fairly strong high pressure centered over far nrn Manitoba.

Pretty quiet weather today and tonight. The low level air mass will
continue to cool this morning as the secondary cold front drives
through nrn Michigan. The overall air mass remains very dry, but as
H8 temps fall into the negative teens later today and tonight, there
should be enough overlake instability/moisture flux off the Great
Lakes for the development of lake effect. The moisture profile looks
rather marginal at best, while inversion heights only topping out
around 4kft as a weak shortwave/sheared out vorticity drops in today.
This is likely to only result in light lake effect snows/flurries
with minimal accumulations. The NNW flow regimes which will be
targeted, may not even reach an inch in any one location, despite
fairly unidirectional flow. Later tonight as the wave departs, the
colder low level air pushes east. Already low inversion heights sink
further, and any remnant snows will either just turn to flurries or
end completely. All-in-all rather quiet weather.

Highs today in the mid to upper 20s, with lower 30s in downsloping
areas near Saginaw Bay. Lows tonight will be quite chilly, in the
single digits in eastern upper to the teens in lower Michigan.


.SHORT TERM...(Friday through Saturday)
Issued at 246 AM EDT Thu Mar 15 2018

...Quiet weather this weekend...

High Impact Weather Potential: None.

Pattern Forecast: Shortwave troughing across the western Great Lakes
region during the day Thursday will push eastward Thursday night
into Friday with rising heights aloft becoming the rule to wrap up
the week. Expansive area of surface high pressure will gradually
push atop northern Michigan by Friday afternoon through the
remainder of the weekend, all while one area of low pressure crosses
the Ohio Valley early Saturday and another north of Lake Superior by
late Saturday. Associated areas of deeper moisture will pass to our
south and north, respectively.

Primary Forecast Concerns/Challenges: High temps.

Little in the way of sensible weather is expected through the
forecast period as Canadian high pressure drifts atop the region
Friday into Saturday. Partly to mostly sunny skies will be the rule
for both Friday and Saturday with gradually warming temperatures.

High temps Friday expected to vary from the low 30s north of the
bridge and across the Tip of the Mitt...up to the mid 30s along and
south of M-72. Several degrees warmer for Saturday with mid 30s
north and into the low 40s across much of northern lower.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 246 AM EDT Thu Mar 15 2018

High Impact Weather Potential: Minimal.

Quiet weather is expected to continue right through the end of the
weekend and for much of next week. However, the primary feature of
note through the extended forecast period remains a moisture starved
cold front expected to drop north to south across the area early
next week. Despite little in the way of a QPF signal for any lake
effect, the currently progged temperatures may remain just
marginally cold enough for lake induced rain and/or snow showers to
develop during the late Monday - Tuesday time frame, but either way
it doesn`t look to be like an impactful event by any stretch.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 147 PM EDT Thu Mar 15 2018

Colder air has once again overspread the region over the last 12
to 24 hours...leading to fairly widespread lake and heating
induced snow showers across northern lower Michigan. VSBYs and
CIGs remain mixed...teetering between MVFR and VFR at the terminal
sites (and the occasional IFR for good measure). Generally...MVFR
snow showers will remain dominant through the afternoon followed
by a diminishing trend through tonight.




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