314
FXUS62 KTAE 240119
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
919 PM EDT Sun Jun 23 2024

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 919 PM EDT Sun Jun 23 2024

No significant changes to the previous forecast appear necessary.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Through Monday)
Issued at 307 PM EDT Sun Jun 23 2024

Hot temperatures will once again be present across the entire area
as the region remains on the eastern periphery of a deep upper level
ridge centered over Texas with 588-594 dm 500mb heights over the tri-
state area. 850mb heights around 18-20 degrees Celsius will also
allow for deep mixing and high temperatures to reach the upper 90s
to near 100 degrees once again on Monday. This mixing has so far
kept much of the areas dewpoint temperatures from reaching the low
to mid 70s areawide, which has effectively kept advisory level heat
indices at bay so far today. This deep layer mixing is expected to
occur again on Monday, which has swayed the decision to not issue a
heat advisory for portions of Florida. These temperatures will
continue to be monitored closely this afternoon as the seabreeze
surges north and brings with it higher dewpoints. If advisory level
heat index values develop later this evening, this will increase the
confidence to issue one for Monday as well in subsequent forecast
updates.

Another wrench into the forecast for Monday`s high temperatures is
the passage of a cold front from an upper level system currently
moving that is expected during the afternoon and evening hours.
through the northeast today. This cold front is expected to increase
rain chances, and bring a broken line of showers and thunderstorms
through the region during the afternoon and evening hours. The
greatest chances for thunderstorm coverage appears to be in the
Florida Panhandle and Big Bend as the front converges with higher
dewpoints from an inland surge of moisture from the seabreeze. The
largest impact from these storms will likely be gusty winds and
frequent lightning, but will overall bring much needed rain to the
region.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Monday night through Tuesday night)
Issued at 307 PM EDT Sun Jun 23 2024

Upper level ridging to our west and semi-zonal flow ridging gives
way due to a trough building to our north. This will lead to light
northwesterly flow through the period. At the surface, high
pressure sits just to our northeast which should squander
widespread shower and thunderstorm developing while nurturing
unseasonably hot conditions. The best chance for rain and
thunderstorm chances should be along the seabreeze. Highs for
Tuesday along the coast will be in the low to mid 90s and the
increase to the upper 90s to near 100 along and north of I-10.
The heat indicies will generally range from 100 to 110, which may
lead to another Heat Advisory for the FL counties and and up into
the first tier of counties north of the FL/GA and FL/AL border.
Confidence is too low to hoist one now as we need to see how dew
points trend on Monday. Opted to lower them a hair based on how
this afternoon (Sunday afternoon) performed.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 307 PM EDT Sun Jun 23 2024

Broad upper level troughing will hold through at least the work
week, with the cluster analysis showing some weak zonal or weak
ridging trying to develop Friday into Saturday. Expect
northwesterly flow aloft to hold while southwest to westerly flow
comes in at the surface. The toasty trend continues through this
period, though precip chances increase a hair over land due to the
potential disturbances passing overhead. This could tweak the
temperature forecast a bit, but for now left general NBM guidance
in. In terms of precip, generally scattered afternoon showers and
thunderstorms are forecast, with scattered to widespread storms
being possible if those disturbances make it to us.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 746 PM EDT Sun Jun 23 2024

Convection has dissipated for tonight and will not be of concern
again until Monday. Highest confidence in TSRA on Monday is at
DHN and ECP per the CAMs. Have indicated VCTS for all terminals
except VLD on Monday afternoon and evening; VLD remains on the
edge of all the activity attm. West to Southwest winds around
5-10 kts thru the period.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 307 PM EDT Sun Jun 23 2024

Mainly southwesterly winds should hold through Monday before
teetering between westerly and southwesterly afterwards. Seas
will generally be between 1 to 3 feet, with the 3 foot waves
being favored west of Apalachicola. However, long-period swells
will continue through the period as a disturbance sits off
northeast Mexico. Nightly chances of showers and storms will be
possible over the waters with the highest chances east of
Apalachicola.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 307 PM EDT Sun Jun 23 2024

The main fire weather concerns over the next few days will be the
ongoing hot temperatures expected during the afternoon and evening
hours across the region. Along with hot temperatures, mixing heights
will surge to around 6000 feet for much of the area. This combined
with transport winds around 10-15 mph will lead to high dispersions,
especially along the I-75 corridor where headline values are
expected. Overall, expect southwesterly transport winds on Monday
with the potential for a broken line of scattered thunderstorms to
develop along the Florida state line and push south throughout the
afternoon and evening.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 307 PM EDT Sun Jun 23 2024

No major changes to the forecast as moisture will continue to
infiltrate the region due to. A large trough will sit over the
east, while high pressure retrogrades west. Daily chances for
showers and thunderstorms will be possible, some of which could
produce heavy rain. Overall, widespread rainfall totals of 1-2
inches is expected over the next 7 days.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   77  97  77  97 /  10  50  10  40
Panama City   78  91  79  92 /   0  40  10  30
Dothan        76  96  75  99 /   0  40  10  30
Albany        77  96  75 100 /   0  30  20  30
Valdosta      76  98  76  99 /  10  40  20  50
Cross City    75  94  76  94 /  20  40  20  50
Apalachicola  78  90  79  89 /  10  30  10  30

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through late Tuesday night for FLZ108-112-
     114-115.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DVD
NEAR TERM...Bunker
SHORT TERM...KR
LONG TERM....KR
AVIATION...LF
MARINE...KR
FIRE WEATHER...Bunker
HYDROLOGY...KR