Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
163 FXUS65 KFGZ 221625 AFDFGZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ 925 AM MST Sat Jun 22 2024 .SYNOPSIS...Look for daily chances for showers and thunderstorms over the weekend and into the middle of next week. Otherwise, muggy and hot conditions will continue. && .DISCUSSION...Arizona is essentially bisected by a rich plume of sub-tropical moisture this morning, with drier conditions to the west. The moisture plume is well populated with cloud cover and a rain cooled boundary layer, it may be tricky to get much going under this cloud cover until later today. It is where the cloud cover runs out and the moisture is still present that may the focal area for stronger storms today. This area can be roughly defined as Prescott to Flagstaff to Happy Jack to Payson and the I-17 corridor that is in between. This is the area that will maximize solar heating and available moisture. The previous shift manually added PoPs for this area and parts of Yavapai County and this looks good. No imminent updates are needed right now, we will watch convection development as the day wears on. Daily storm chances will persist through the forecast period thanks to the high setting up and bringing in monsoonal moisture. Similar to today, limited shear will result in a more pulse storm threat, though lingering, training thunderstorms will provide a flash flood threat. Late next week PoPs due become very limited and confined to the far east as a passing trough in the NW U.S. will shift our high east. At this time, ensemble guidance does build the high back in late in the weekend/early the following weekend. As long as that happens, monsoonal flow will return and increase rain chances once again. && .AVIATION...Saturday 22/12Z through Sunday 23/12Z...Mainly VFR expected. MVFR possible in SHRA/TSRA between 18Z-03Z, mainly along and south of KRQE-KFLG-KPRC line with ISO SHRA through 06Z/Sun. S-SW winds 5-15 kts becoming light and variable after 03Z. Erratic and gusty winds in the vicinity of storms. OUTLOOK...Sunday 23/12Z through Tuesday 25/12Z...Mainly VFR expected. Expect SHRA/TSRA between 18Z-03Z each day. S-SW winds 5-15 kts each afternoon. Erratic and gusty winds in the vicinity of storms. && .FIRE WEATHER...Today and Sunday...Scattered to widespread showers and thunderstorms expected through the weekend. Wetting rains are likely with any storms, as well as gusty and erratic outflow winds up to 45 mph. Outside of outflow winds, expect southerly winds at 10 to 215 mph today, becoming more southwest to west on Sunday. Monday through Wednesday...Chances for showers and thunderstorms continue through midweek, mainly along and south of the Mogollon Rim and the White Mountains. A gradual warming trend will bring above normal temperatures by Tuesday. Light southwest to west winds around 10 to 15 mph each afternoon. && .FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None. && $$ PUBLIC...Peterson/RKR AVIATION...Meola FIRE WEATHER...Meola For Northern Arizona weather information visit weather.gov/flagstaff