962
FXUS64 KFWD 240409
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
1109 PM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024

...New Short Term, Aviation...

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
/Overnight through Monday Night/

The large scale weather pattern will remain unchanged to start the
work week with a mid-level ridge anchored from the Desert
Southwest to the Lower Mississippi Valley. Temperature and
humidity trends will be very similar to today with most spots
reaching the upper 90s to around 100 Monday afternoon. The deepest
low level moisture will reside near and east of the I-35
corridor, resulting in afternoon heat index values around or just
above 105. Most other locations will see max heat index values in
the 100 to 104 degree range. We will maintain the current Heat
Advisory configuration and start time. The good news is that a
clear sky at night will allow for steady cooling, with most
locations dropping into the 70s before sunrise. A south wind in
the 5 to 10 mph range will also provide a bit of relief from the
heat.

79

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 154 PM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024/
/Monday Night through Sunday/

A stout mid level ridge will remain in place across the Southern
Plains Monday night through much of the week resulting in
increasing heat and humidity. The center of the ridge axis will
temporarily shift across West Texas on Tuesday in response to
deepening troughing across the eastern CONUS. While this won`t
have much impact on our temperatures, it may briefly allow
increasing northerly flow aloft to send a remnant Plains storm
complex southward toward the Red River late Tuesday and again
Wednesday. None of the major model guidance shows any noteworthy
precipitation making it into North Texas, but perhaps some
increased cloud cover can provide some temporary relief throughout
the day. Otherwise, our ridge will expand back to the east late
Wednesday through the remainder of the week and into next weekend.
This will support continued hot temperatures with highs near 100
each afternoon. Light synoptic scale flow will likely result in
less afternoon mixing Wednesday through Friday and should help
keep dewpoints in the lower 70s. This will result in heat indices
above 105 each afternoon and a likely continuation of heat
headlines through the week.

Dunn

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/06Z TAFs/

...VFR and south flow...

A ridge of high pressure aloft will continue to produce excellent
flying weather across North and Central Texas through Monday with
a mostly clear sky at night and a few daytime Cu. A south wind
will remain in the 5 to 11 knot range along with occasional
higher daytime gusts.

79

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    79 100  80  99  81 /   0   0   0   0   5
Waco                76  96  77  97  78 /   0   0   0   0   0
Paris               77  98  78  97  78 /   5   5   0   5  10
Denton              76  99  78 100  79 /   5   5   0   0   5
McKinney            77  99  78  99  79 /   5   5   0   0   5
Dallas              79 100  80 100  81 /   0   0   0   0   5
Terrell             75  98  77  97  77 /   0   0   0   0   5
Corsicana           77  98  78  97  79 /   0   0   0   0   5
Temple              74  97  75  97  76 /   0   0   0   0   0
Mineral Wells       74  99  78  99  79 /   0   0   0   0   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory from noon Monday to 7 PM CDT Tuesday for
TXZ092>095-103>107-118>123-133>135-145>148-158>162-174-175.

&&

$$