Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
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937 FXUS64 KFWD 081843 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 143 PM CDT Wed May 8 2024 ...New Short Term, Aviation... .SHORT TERM... /NEW/ /Through Thursday night/ An active afternoon and evening is in store for portions of North and Central Texas as scattered storms are expected to develop ahead and along a dryline/cold front. At 1 pm, surface analysis show the cold front just to our northwest near Wichita Falls and the dryline ahead of the front farther east and southwest. These should continue to move eastward through the evening as the associated shortwave moves across the southern Plains. The combination of both boundaries and efficient surface heating should eventually break the cap resulting in the development of scattered storms. We are monitoring two areas for convective initialization over the next 2-4 hours. First: There is a 20% chance of isolated storms across western Central TX, closer to the dryline. Second: areas across the northeast closer to the cold front/dryline intersection should see storms develop around 5-6 pm. Latest high-res models are in fairly good agreement that storms will develop south like a zipper along the boundary through the evening. Areas generally near/east of I-35W and north of I-20 still have the best chance to see storms and severe weather. Given a highly unstable environment with steep lapse rates and 70s dewpoints (resulting in 4000-5000 J/kg MLCAPE), very large hail and damaging wind gusts will be the main threats. There is a potential for the hail to exceed 3 inches in diameter in some areas. While the tornado threat is lower over our area due to slightly weaker low-level shear and veered flow, boundaries can interact with each other and increase this threat. Most of the activity should be east and outside of our area between midnight and 2 am, but cloudy and patchy fog conditions are anticipated for areas south of I-20 as the front becomes nearly stationary. Thursday`s storm chances will be highly dependent on where the surface boundary settles overnight. However, most of the high-res guidance is showing the potential for scattered storms pretty much anywhere across North and Central Texas in the afternoon and evening. Due to uncertainty on exactly when and where storms will develop, PoPs have been capped to 30-40%. Like today, ingredients will be present for severe storms. Furthermore, forecast instability appears to be even higher which may increase the coverage and threat for very large hail and damaging winds. Forecast details will continue to be adjusted as new data arrives. Otherwise, a very warm afternoon is expected today with many locations reaching low/mid 90s. For tomorrow, the clouds and rain may keep daytime highs ranging from the upper 70s and low 80s in North Texas and up to upper 80s in Central Texas. Sanchez && .LONG TERM... /Issued 253 AM CDT Wed May 8 2024/ /Friday Onward/ Cooler, drier, and breezy conditions will be in place on Friday as surface high pressure builds south through the Southern Plains in the wake of Thursday/Thursday night`s cold front. Dewpoints should remain in the 50s through Saturday night, making for a great start to the weekend. Highs in the mid and upper 70s will be generally 5 to 10 degrees below normal on Friday, with only a slight warm-up expected on Saturday. Friday night`s lows in the 50s to lower 60s may be some of the cooler air we will experience until fall. Return flow will commence on Sunday as the post-frontal surface ridge heads for the central Gulf Coast. Scattered showers and occasional thunderstorms will also be on the increase starting Sunday as the next upper low approaches from the west. Rain chances will begin across the southwest zones as early as Saturday night, then increase from southwest to northeast as isentropic lift strengthens in advance of the upper low (and deep layer moisture increases). Thursday`s front will have become stationary along the Gulf Coast by the weekend, keeping thunderstorms elevated in nature as the upper low continues east through the Plains Sunday night and Monday. This will limit the severe weather threat, though some storms will be capable of hail and locally heavy rain. The greater concern may again be the threat for flooding due to the saturated soils in place across the region and the slow eastward progression of the upper low. Model solutions deviate considerably after Monday regarding the evolution of the upper level system. The stronger and more progressive solutions end rain chances by Tuesday as the low moves east, while the slower, weaker solutions keep rain chances going through the middle of next week. Will remain conservative with POPs after Monday at this time and narrow the window as better resolution data arrives in the coming days. In either case, it looks like an unsettled weather pattern will persist through at least the middle part of the month. 30 && .AVIATION... /NEW/ /18Z TAFs/ Concerns...Scattered storms, some severe this afternoon and evening. Low cigs early Thursday morning with another round of storms possible in the afternoon. VFR cigs and breezy south-southwesterly winds will persist this afternoon ahead of an approaching cold front. Winds will shift to the north-northeast this evening but will stay below 10 kts. The main impact with the front will be the potential for storms developing along the boundary this evening. Confidence has increased that some of this activity will initiate near the I-35 corridor and impact some of the TAF sites. The main window will be between 00-04Z this evening. A TEMPO TSRA has been introduced to all the DFW Metroplex sites except for KAFW where probabilities are slightly lower at this time. Coverage of storms will remain isolated across Central TX so will keep VCTS between 23-02Z. Also, some of these storms may be severe with large hail and damaging winds the main threat. Once the front moves south of each location storm chances will come to an end. The next round of MVFR/IFR cigs will arrive around 09-10Z tonight and continue through most of the morning. There is a chance of scattered storms after 18Z Thursday, and may impact some if not all the sites. Forecast details/timing will continue to be adjusted. Sanchez && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 70 83 63 80 62 / 30 40 20 0 5 Waco 72 86 64 77 61 / 20 40 20 5 5 Paris 65 82 60 79 56 / 60 40 30 0 0 Denton 65 82 60 79 58 / 10 40 20 0 5 McKinney 67 82 61 79 58 / 40 40 20 0 5 Dallas 70 83 64 80 61 / 40 40 20 0 5 Terrell 69 84 62 79 58 / 50 40 30 0 5 Corsicana 73 86 65 81 61 / 20 40 30 0 5 Temple 72 87 65 79 61 / 20 40 20 5 5 Mineral Wells 66 83 61 80 58 / 5 40 20 0 10 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$