Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL
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058 FXUS62 KMLB 251812 AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 212 PM EDT Tue Jun 25 2024 ...New AVIATION... .AVIATION... (18Z TAFs) Issued at 211 PM EDT Tue Jun 25 2024 TAFs begin with TEMPO TSRA groups this afternoon at KMCO KISM, KSFB, KDAB, KLEE with VCTS at the other coastal sites. Showers/storms are expected to increase in coverage into the afternoon/evening as boundary interactions occur between sea breezes and outflow from previous storms. E/SE winds at 5-10kts into this evening back offshore overnight into Wed AM at 5kts. && .UPDATE... Issued at 953 AM EDT Tue Jun 25 2024 Mostly quiet on the KMLB WSR-88D radar this morning, with only a couple isolated light showers over the Atlantic waters south of Sebastian Inlet. Satellite and local observations shows some low and high level clouds streaming over the peninsula. Deep moisture remains over central Florida, with GOES-16 PWATs showing PWAT values between 1.8-2.0" across ECFL this morning. This along with the typical summertime diurnal heating pattern will support scattered to numerous showers and scattered lightning storms today. Light west to southwest winds today will allow the east coast sea breeze to form and push inland. The sea breeze collision is forecast to occur across the interior this afternoon, where the highest coverage of showers and storms (PoP 60-70 percent) is located this afternoon and into early evening. Have maintained PoP 40-50 percent along the coast through the evening hours, since steering flow should be light enough to limit a higher coverage of showers and storms being pushed back towards the coast. Similar to yesterday, main storm hazards for any storms today will be locally heavy rainfall, occasional to frequent lightning strikes, and gusty winds up to 35 mph. Slow moving to stationary storms will be capable of a quick 1-3" of rain in a short 60-90 minute time frame. Temperatures will continue to be hot and muggy today, with afternoon highs in the low to mid 90s with peak heat indices ranging from 102 to 106 degrees. Any lingering activity should dissipate or move out of the local area by midnight, with mostly dry conditions expected over land tonight. Forecast remains on track with only slight adjustments to this afternoon and overnight rain and lightning storm chances. && .MARINE... Issued at 353 AM EDT Tue Jun 25 2024 Today-Saturday...Light offshore flow shifts southward each afternoon as the east coast sea breeze develops. Background flow then becomes southerly on Saturday, backing onshore with a developing sea breeze in the afternoon. Winds remain light through the period, generally 10 kts or less. Seas of 2 ft persist with occasional seas up to 3 ft across the far offshore waters. High coverage of summertime showers and storms are forecast each afternoon. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 75 93 75 94 / 30 70 40 60 MCO 75 93 77 93 / 50 70 30 60 MLB 75 92 75 93 / 30 70 40 60 VRB 74 91 74 93 / 40 70 40 60 LEE 76 93 77 93 / 40 70 30 60 SFB 76 93 76 94 / 50 70 30 60 ORL 76 93 77 94 / 50 70 30 60 FPR 74 91 74 93 / 40 70 30 60 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. && $$ UPDATE...Watson AVIATION...Fehling