025
FXUS64 KFWD 100556
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
1256 AM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024

...New Short Term, Aviation...

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
/Overnight through Tuesday/

Regional radar imagery and surface observations indicate a cold
front is sliding southward through North Texas at this hour and is
very near the I-20 corridor. Scattered thunderstorms along the Red
River continue to weaken at this time with renewed convection
occurring farther to the northwest. For the remainder of the
night, the front will continue to push southward while additional
thunderstorm chances will generally remain north of I-20 and
across parts of our far western counties. PoPs will be around 20%
for the rest of the night.

On Monday, the frontal boundary will be located south of I-20 but
will lose some of its forward momentum. This should become a focus
for renewed convection as the atmosphere destabilizes throughout
the day. While the convection allowing model guidance is really
all over the place with respect to timing and coverage, a general
consensus is that the frontal boundary should be the primary focus
for additional scattered thunderstorms. That being said, we`ll be
fairly liberal in area with PoPs across the region ranging from
20-50% and try to confine the highest rain chances where we think
the boundary should end up. A band of 40-50% PoPs will be located
south of the Metroplex and into some of our Central TX counties
during peak afternoon heating. Most of this activity will be
diurnally driven and should taper off in coverage pretty quickly
this evening. The threat for severe weather is low, however a few
storms could briefly pose a severe wind threat or hail threat.
Otherwise, frequent lightning and locally heavy rainfall will be
the main threats.

Monday night should be fairly quiet as afternoon heating wanes and
thunderstorm coverage diminishes. It`ll be a bit cooler as well
with lows ranging from the mid 60s across the north to lower 70s
in our central TX counties. While the frontal boundary will
become a little more diffuse on Tuesday, an upstream shortwave
will eject out of the Four Corners and into West Texas. Increasing
forcing for ascent and ample deep layer moisture should lead to
another afternoon of scattered showers and thunderstorms,
particularly west of I-35 where a semi-organized cluster of storms
may develop within the modest instability. We`ll have our highest
PoPs confined to areas west of I-35 into the evening hours.
Increased cloud cover and rain chances will mean cooler afternoon
highs both Monday and Tuesday with temperatures topping out in the
mid/upper 80s.

Dunn

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 400 PM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024/
/Tuesday Through Next Weekend/

A shortwave trough will slowly transit the region Tuesday and
Wednesday, bringing additional chances for showers and
thunderstorms. With the dissolution of the frontal boundary,
outflow from earlier convection will be the main features to focus
renewed development. A rather languid wind field will allow such
boundaries to linger. While the disturbance aloft will introduce
some directional shear, the flow will be seasonally subdued. This
will both limit the severe potential and reduce the speed of
individual cells. But there will still be enough instability and
forcing aloft to allow for some strong or marginally severe
storms, with hail and wind the potential hazards. Despite the
directional shear aloft, the weak flow within the boundary layer
should largely eliminate the tornadic potential. With considerable
precipitable water values, slow-moving downpours could reaggravate
flooding issues.

The mid-week event will likely feature two main rounds: one driven
by daytime heating Tuesday afternoon and a second resulting from
nocturnal forcing within the core of the shortwave early Wednesday
morning. Guidance is in better agreement with the timing and
evolution of the feature, the downglide portion of which should be
in place by midday Wednesday. Another extended rain-free period
will begin Wednesday afternoon.

A West Coast low will move inland late in the week and trek
through the Rockies. This will cause the meridionally oriented
ridge axis to our west to gain a positive tilt, nosing into the
Lone Star State. This will reduce cloud cover and steadily raise
temperatures into the upcoming weekend. Rich Gulf moisture should
keep highs in the 90s, but heat index values will approach 100 by
late in the week. Tropical easterlies may introduce some sea
breeze showers/storms during the weekend, but the bulk of the
activity should remain to our southeast.

25

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/6Z TAFs/

VFR will prevail through much of the night before some MVFR cigs
develop in the post frontal airmass across the D10 airspace early
Monday morning. North-northeast winds around 10 kt can be expected
for much of the day as the frontal boundary will remain to the
south of the major airports. We should see an uptick in afternoon
showers and thunderstorms on Monday and we`ll include a VCTS from
19Z into the early evening. Given the scattered nature of these
storms, will hold off on any TEMPO for now, but there`s a decent
shot of at least scattered storms disrupting mid/late afternoon
arrivals/departures. Convection should begin to diminish in
coverage by evening with loss of daytime heating.

Dunn

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    75  85  71  86  71 /  10  40  20  20  20
Waco                74  88  72  87  71 /   0  50  30  20  20
Paris               71  83  64  86  65 /  30  20   0   5   5
Denton              74  83  67  85  68 /  20  40  10  20  30
McKinney            74  83  67  86  68 /  20  30   5  20  20
Dallas              76  86  71  87  71 /  10  40  20  20  20
Terrell             74  85  68  86  68 /   5  40  20  10  10
Corsicana           75  88  71  88  71 /   0  40  20  20  20
Temple              74  90  72  88  70 /   5  40  30  20  20
Mineral Wells       72  85  69  85  69 /  20  40  20  40  40

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$