082
FXUS61 KBUF 021058
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
658 AM EDT Fri Oct 2 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Only minor changes to the forecast with this
update.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) A cold front brings a round of beneficial rain showers through
the first half of today, followed by dry weather and seasonable
temperatures this weekend.

2) Below average temperatures with frost potential early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...A cold front brings a round of beneficial rain
showers through the first half of today, followed by dry weather and
seasonable temperatures this weekend.

A mid level trough digging across the upper Great Lakes is forcing a
cold front southeast through western and northcentral NY this
morning, with the main area of anafrontal rain showers slowly
sagging southeastward into the area. Ahead of the front, PWAT values
are near the 100th percentile for this time of year, along with a
stout 35-45 knot southwesterly LLJ. However, with the showers being
mainly anafrontal in nature, this activity will not be able to take
full advantage of the more plentiful moisture and much stronger
forcing for ascent along and ahead of the low level portion of the
front. Thus, while there will be a period of beneficial showers, the
heavy rainfall/flooding threat will be near zero. The main window
for more persistent showers will be this morning through
midday/early afternoon, just behind the surface cold front. Rainfall
amounts of a half to three-quarters of an inch are expected across a
good chunk of the area, with lesser amounts expected across the
interior Southern Tier, Finger Lakes, and southern Tug Hill region.
A few widely scattered light showers may linger in the wake of the
cold front this afternoon, especially toward the North Country,
otherwise dry and seasonable weather is on tap for the upcoming
weekend.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Below average temperatures with frost potential
early next week.

A few showers may accompany a strong cold front forecast to cross
the area Sunday night, ushering in the coolest airmass we`ve seen
since last spring. 850 mb temperatures are expected to plunge to
near 0C to -2C during the first part of next week, with daytime
highs not climbing out of the 50`s for much of the region, and
possibly only upper 40`s for highs across the Tug Hill and western
Dacks by Tuesday.

The axis of a strong upper level trough axis will cross the area
Monday, possibly producing a few additional showers, otherwise
mainly dry weather is expected. The main impact will be frost
potential Monday night, and possibly again Tuesday night, especially
inland of the lakeshores.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Cold front moving through northern portions of the forecast area as
of this writing. The main area of anafrontal rain showers is slowly
sagging southeastward through northern portions of the forecast
area. The main window for more persistent showers will be this
morning through midday/early afternoon just behind the surface cold
front, with predominantly light to moderate intensities yielding
mainly MVFR VSBYs, although brief IFR VSBYs will be possible within
any heavier showers. The more impactful element for flight ops will
be a period of widespread IFR/LIFR CIGS from early this morning
through midday/early afternoon. A return to mainly VFR flight
conditions will then take place from northwest to southeast from
early to mid afternoon.

Mainly VFR tonight, although late night through mid morning
localized fog is possible along/near the river and lake valleys.
There will also likely be some VFR lake clouds south and southwest
of the Lakes.

Outlook...

Saturday through Sunday...Dry weather and mainly VFR likely. Morning
fog is possible, especially along/near the river and lake valleys.

Sunday night through Monday...Periodic rain showers with MVFR
or worse possible.

Monday night through Tuesday...Dry weather and mainly VFR
likely. Morning fog is possible, especially along/near the river
and lake valleys of the Western Southern Tier, Finger Lakes,
and North-Central NY.

&&

.MARINE...
Winds veer NWerly this morning with wind speeds 10-15 knots through
around midday, before increasing during the second half of the day
bringing a period of low-end SCA conditions from the Niagara River
to near the Saint Lawrence River later this afternoon through
tonight, for which SCAs are in effect.

Otherwise, high pressure will bring a return to lighter winds and
lower wave action on the Lakes this weekend, before a strong cold
front plows across the lower Great Lakes Sunday night, with
freshening NWerlies likely bringing a round of solid Small Craft
Advisory conditions later Sunday night into Monday night. Conditions
will improve by Tuesday with a weakening pressure gradient as high
pressure moves over the eastern Great Lakes.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 2 AM EDT
         Saturday for LOZ042.
         Small Craft Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 5 AM EDT
         Saturday for LOZ043>045.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JM
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...JM