990
FXUS61 KBUF 300639
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
239 AM EDT Sat Aug 30 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will build into the region through the holiday
weekend, providing day-to-day warming and fair dry weather into the
start of the new work week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Morning satellite imagery is showing lake clouds continue to slowly
clear out across the forecast area and areas of valley fog are
starting to form. Temperatures early this morning range from the low
40s to near 50.

Today, morning valley fog is expected for areas of the Western
Southern Tier, with some areas of fog also possible east of Lake
Ontario. Dry weather with partly to mostly sunny skies is expected
as high pressure builds into the region. The best chance for more
clouds is expected east of Lake Ontario where the closer proximity
to the departing trough will increase the cloud cover some. Guidance
does also increase clouds across far WNY this afternoon as well as a
weak piece of shortwave energy drops south across the area.
Temperatures will warm some from Friday afternoon values with highs
reaching the low 60s to low 70s from the higher terrain to the lower
elevations respectively. West to northwest winds will increase
during the afternoon to the 5 to 15 mph range with the stronger
winds expected closer to the southeast shore of Lake Ontario.

Tonight, dry with areas of valley fog possible for the Western
Southern Tier. Winds will become light. Any lingering clouds during
the evening are expected to clear out later in the night. Low
temperatures will drop to near 40 over the higher terrain to near 50
for the lower elevations.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
An expansive area of high pressure will gradually slide east across
the lower Great Lakes and New England before exiting into the
Atlantic Ocean late Tuesday. This being said, a few days of dry
weather is on tap through the extended holiday weekend and into the
start of the new work week. Along with the dry weather, expect a
gradual day to day warming trend with high temperatures Sunday in
the low to mid 70s and climbing up into mid to upper 70s and near 80
Monday and Tuesday.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The next strong trough will dig into the upper Midwest, with
downstream height falls beginning to spread east across the Great
Lakes. Some timing differences with this system begin to show in
deterministic and ensemble guidance, with just a low chance of a few
showers arriving by late in the day across Western NY.

The pattern remains progressive and amplifies significantly across
North America late next week, with a strong ridge over the Rockies
and a deep longwave trough carving out across the Great Lakes. Large
scale forcing ahead of the trough and associated cold front may
phase with an additional southern stream shortwave rounding the base
of the trough to support a cold front to pass from west to east,
resulting in a period of widespread rain potential Thursday,
followed by a few more showers Friday. It will turn notably cooler
again behind the cold front by Friday.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
This morning, mainly VFR conditions for all terminals. Areas of
valley fog, mainly across the Western Southern Tier will bring the
potential to lower VSBYs at KJHW at least briefly to IFR at times.

Today, dry weather with VFR expected for all terminals, some morning
valley fog may cause early IFR VSBY as KJHW. Increasing clouds in
the afternoon east of Lake Ontario and across far western NY should
remain at VFR levels. Otherwise some fair weather cumulus clouds
will be possible with afternoon heating.

Tonight, dry weather continues with mainly VFR conditions with
weakening winds and clearing skies. Some valley fog will be possible
for the Western Southern Tier once again, which may cause some VSBY
reductions at/near JHW.

Outlook...

Sunday through Wednesday...Mainly VFR. Local IFR in river valley fog
each late night and morning across the Southern Tier.

&&

.MARINE...
Gentle to moderate westerly to northwesterly winds over the lakes
will bring choppy conditions to both lakes at times through the day
today. Winds across the eastern half of Lake Ontario will increase
this afternoon approaching Small Craft Advisory levels and an
advisory may be needed for the areas east of Hamlin Beach.

With high pressure building into the region, winds and waves will
diminish later in the evening and are expected to then remain below
SCA levels through at least the remainder of the holiday weekend.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SW
NEAR TERM...SW
SHORT TERM...EAJ
LONG TERM...EAJ/Hitchcock
AVIATION...SW
MARINE...SW