267
FXUS61 KBUF 300624
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
124 AM EST Sun Nov 30 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Snow will transition to a rain-snow mix today, mainly for lower
elevations. It will become quite breezy to windy this afternoon, and
then turn colder as a cold front sweeps through the region. Lake
effect rain-snow develops northeast of the lake this evening before
focusing east and southeast of the lakes through Monday morning.
Mainly quiet weather for Monday ahead of the next system which
arrives Monday night with the potential for some accumulating snows
through Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Isentropic lift with the advancing mid-level warm front will bring a
period of snow to the region, with overall light accumulations (1-
3") expected through this morning. As lower levels warm snow will
mix with and/or change over to rain for lower elevations by early
this afternoon from west to east. All snow is expected across higher
terrain, and further east for the Tug Hill.

As the surface low passes to west and the north today it will push
its cold front east into and through much of the Lower Lakes by this
evening. A colder air mass will then wrap back in across the area
with lake effect precipitation developing northeast of Lake Erie
first and then Lake Ontario a bit later on. Initially...lake effect
may be a rain/snow mix but will change over to snow resulting in
some minor accumulations (1-2") northeast of the Lake Erie before
the band pushes quickly south. Once the band pushes south, it will
focus across the S. Tier (Chautauqua and Cattaraugus Co.) and also
weaken as drier air begins to filter in overnight. Overall...light
accumulations expected east-southesat of Lake Erie, with a few
inches possible across higher terrain (1-3").

Elsewhere...mainly for the higher terrain of the Tug Hill where all
snow is expected today, expect 2 to 4 inches. Lake effect will add
some additional accumulations this evening and tonight. A Winter
Weather Advisory remains in place for Lewis County where the
greatest potential for higher elevation snow is expected.

Wind...

Winds will pick up today as the cold front nears and then crosses
the Lower Lakes. The strongest winds again will be found northeast
of Lake Erie (Niagara Frontier), S. Erie, Wyoming and Chautauqua
counties. This will come as a strong LLJ (+50 knots) aligns with the
long axis of the lake, and CAA picks up late this afternoon and into
this evening. Wind Advisories remain in effect for the
counties/locations above, with timing shown below in the
Watch/Warning/Advisories section. For areas east of these advisory
areas, wind gusts to 40 MPH will be possible at times, mainly from
mid afternoon into this evening.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
A transient area of high pressure over the Ohio Valley early
Monday morning will rapidly build into the lower Great Lakes
Monday morning and into western New England by Monday evening.
This will quickly shut down and lingering snow showers across
the area with dry weather and even some breaks of sunshine
expected. Winds will become light, however with 850mb temps
hovering around -12C/-13C, it will be a chilly day with daytime
highs averaging some 10-15 degrees below average on the first
day of meteorological winter.

High pressure quickly shifts east off the New England coast Monday
night, while an elongated area of low pressure moves from the west
Gulf Coast into the Southeast states. Low pressure is then forecast
to continue moving northeast to just off the Mid Atlantic coast on
Tuesday, then strengthen while moving northeast along the northeast
Atlantic coastline Tuesday night. Big question continues to be just
how close to the coast, as that will have large implications on our
weather across western and northcentral NY. Model guidance continues
to struggle with the track of this system, although consensus
continues to favor a track far enough to our south and east to spare
our area from the heavier snows, although at least some accumulation
will be possible, with the best potential for near advisory (>= 4")
amounts across our southeastern areas. Stay tuned.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Late Wednesday through Thursday morning a mid level trough will
advance east across Ontario and Quebec, with an associated cold
front crossing the eastern Great Lakes. Wednesday will start mainly
dry, outside of a limited chance of some light lake effect east of
the lakes. Later Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday night, lake
induced equilibrium levels will rise with the start of cold
advection aloft and arrival of synoptic scale ascent and moisture
along the cold front. This will support expanding areas of lake
enhanced snow east/northeast of Lake Erie and Ontario. What remains
of this will move southeast of the lakes and weaken by Thursday
morning as dry air and ridging build quickly into the area. This
system is fast moving and associated lake effect will be brief, but
nonetheless may support some accumulating snow east/northeast of the
lakes.

Forecast uncertainty increases by Friday and Saturday with more
significant timing and track differences showing up in operational
and ensemble guidance. A split flow regime across North America will
bring at least the potential for a partially phased system by the
start of next weekend, but equally likely is the northern and
southern streams remaining unphased with just a weak system passing
through the Great Lakes. At the very least, expect a chance of some
light snow each day through the end of the week with passing weak
synoptic features and lake effect potential.

Temperatures will continue to run below average next week and beyond
with a longwave trough well established and re-loading several times
across central and eastern North America.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Isentropic lift with the advancing mid-level warm front will bring a
period of lower vsbys and cigs to area terminals through this
morning.

A low pressure system passing to our west and then north today will
then send a cold front east through the region this afternoon-
evening. With the front...rain-snow showers along the front will
begin filling back in from the west as well with IFR vsbys possible,
mainly west of KROC. A mix of VFR/MVFR cigs at the lower elevations
(spotty IFR higher terrain S. Tier) will gradually trend towards
more towards MVFR as the front moves through.

Behind the front, precip will transition back to mainly snow with
localized bands of lake enhanced snow developing northeast of both
lakes. There remains some uncertainty in the exact transition times,
but localized IFR will be possible for a time at KIAG and especially
KBUF. The band off Lake Erie should move south of KBUF around 23z
this evening.

Wind...

A strong LLJ (+50 Knots) will bring strengthening southwest winds
today. Winds will quickly pick up with the arrival of the front and
then post-frontal, with gusts over 40kts possible at KBUF and KIAG
through this evening.

Tonight...lake effect snow bands will push south of KIAG/KBUF, and
become focused southeast of both lakes with localized restrictions.

Outlook...

Monday...Mainly VFR.

Tuesday...VFR/MVFR. Chance of snow showers.

Wednesday...Mainly VFR with some scattered snow showers possible.

Thursday...MVFR/VFR with snow showers expected.

&&

.MARINE...
A low pressure system passing by to west and then north today will
send a cold front through the lakes. A strengthening wind field with
it will bring a period of gales to both Lake Erie and Ontario
through this evening. Surface high pressure then builds in from the
west Monday with lighter winds through Monday night. A low pressure
system passing by to south Tuesday will prompt increasing winds with
Small Craft conditions developing on area lakes.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...Wind Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 10 PM EST this
     evening for NYZ001-002-010>012-085.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 1 AM EST Monday for NYZ008.
     Wind Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for NYZ019.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 10 PM EST this
         evening for LEZ020.
         Gale Warning from 7 AM this morning to 1 AM EST Monday for
         LEZ040-041.
         Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 4 AM
         EST Monday for LOZ030.
         Gale Warning from 10 AM this morning to 4 AM EST Monday
         for LOZ042>045-062>065.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...AR
SHORT TERM...EAJ
LONG TERM...EAJ/Hitchcock
AVIATION...AR
MARINE...AR/SW