451
FXUS63 KDDC 280920
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
420 AM CDT Tue Jul 28 2026

...Updated Aviation...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A heat advisory is in effect for Tuesday along and south of a
  Stafford to Greensburg to Liberal Line. In this area
  afternoon heat index values as high as 106 can be expected.

- Thunderstorm chances will improve across southwest Kansas from
  Tuesday night through early Friday.

- A cooling trend will return to southwest Kansas late week and
  over the upcoming weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1112 PM CDT Mon Jul 27 2026

Scattered evening thunderstorms which developed ahead of an
upper level disturbance moving around an unseasonably warm upper
level high located over northern New Mexico. These storms were
occurring along and north of a surface boundary extending from
north central Kansas into eastern Colorado. While this
convection is expected to weaken overnight, a few isolated to
scattered thunderstorms will still be possible through Tuesday
morning, mainly near the I-70 corridor as the upper level wave
crosses western Kansas and as the surface boundary moves across
southwest Kansas. Severe weather risk through Tuesday morning is
not expected but some isolated gusty winds will be possible.

During the day on Tuesday this surface boundary will remain
nearly stationary south of a Stafford to Dodge City to Liberal
line. This will result in keeping the the warmest 850mb
temperatures (+30C) confined to areas near the Oklahoma border
and south central Kansas. As a result highs are once again
expected to climb back into the 100 to near 105 degree range in
this area with afternoon heat index values between 105 and 110
being possible, mainly along the Oklahoma border. Latest models
remain similar to previous runs on the location of this wedge of
warmer air so the current heat advisory that was issued earlier
today still looks on track (roughly along and south of a
Stafford to Liberal line). Whether Dodge City, Hugoton or
Elkhart will meet heat advisory criteria remains unclear.
Currently looks very marginal so we will continue to monitor
this closely overnight and adjust the advisory as needed.
Despite these areas not being under a Head Advisory on
Tuesday...anyone with outdoor activities should continue to
practice heat safety. Further north models suggest that 850mb
temperatures will be between 3 and 6C cooler so a break in the
105 to 110 degree heat can be expected during the day. Even so,
afternoon temperatures will still range from the upper 90s to
around 100.

Scattered thunderstorm will again be possible Tuesday night as
another upper level wave moves out of the Central Rockies and
approaches southwest Kansas along a developing mid level
baroclinic zone where a low level moisture axis is forecast to
be located. These storms are expected to weaken as they cross
southwest Kansas overnight, however am a little concerned that
the models might be weakening/dissipating these storms too
quickly given the moisture axis over southwest Kansas Tuesday
night. At this time confidence is not high enough to deviate far
from the current model forecast and base on the models timing
of the upper level wave it currently appears that storms will be
likely west of highway 83 before midnight. These storms will
then weaken as they move further east with the best chance of
overnight storms being north of a Garden City to Larned line.
Locally heavy rainfall may accompany a few of these storms
Tuesday night given the forecast precipitable water (PWAT)
values of 1.5" or greater, especially near the Colorado border.
Isolated gusty winds also can not be completely rule out.

Mid week the upper level high over the Central and Southern
Rockies will weaken and shift westward as a more significant
upper trough rotates around this upper ridge. This setup will
provide another opportunity for scattered thunderstorms across
southwest Kansas Wednesday night as the upper level trough
approaches from the west. Chance for convection appear highest
west of highway 83 before midnight, with this activity spreading
across the remainder of the area through early Thursday
morning.

With the passage of this upper level trough Wednesday night into
Thursday, a cold front is then expected to move into southwest
Kansas late week. This will bring a better chance for a relief
in the heat to southwest Kansas by Friday but especially over
the upcoming weekend. During this period the temperatures will
be primarily in the 90s which should be a welcome relief to the
100 to 110 degree temperatures observed earlier in the work work
week.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 420 AM CDT Tue Jul 28 2026

VFR will continue through this TAF period, with variable amounts
of mid/high clouds. Winds will remain light, generally less than
12 kts, and variable in direction. Thunderstorms moving
southeast out of Colorado 00z Wed are expected to dissipate
before reaching any airports Tuesday night. Kept this TAF update
dry with no convection mentioned, with weakening showers and
thunderstorms most likely near GCK by 06z Wed.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 8 PM CDT this
evening for KSZ066-080-081-086>090.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Burgert
AVIATION...Turner