547
FXUS63 KFGF 100427
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1127 PM CDT Sun Aug 9 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Low confidence chances for strong to severe storms through
  Tuesday night.

- Seasonable weather with daily highs in the 70s and low 80s
  this week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1127 PM CDT Sun Aug 9 2026

Mostly clear skies prevail heading into the overnight
period, with only scattered mid level cloud cover along and just
south of the International Border. Mid level smoke remains
evident, with near surface smoke becoming possible overnight as
calm winds prevail into Monday. Temperatures are in the 60s
across the area.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1156 AM CDT Sun Aug 9 2026

...Synopsis...

Zonal flow across the northern plains continues through the
week with transient shortwave activity. The axis of greatest
instability looks to mainly stay south of the area keeping only
general thunderstorm chances for our forecast area, but cant
rule out some strong to severe storms through the period. As the
Hudson Bay low begins to break down later in the week by
Thursday, Montana/Western ND ridging amplifies with decent
latitudinal differences among cluster analysis and degrading
synoptic flow agreement overall by Friday. Scenarios range from
riding over the area to SW flow or zonal/WNW flow flow across
the Canadian prairies and northern plains. While the confidence
in the long term evolution of the pattern is shaky the chance
for significant weather impacts through next weekend still
appears low even with a spread in models.

Best chance in the near term for impacts will be via
thunderstorms Monday and Tuesday, but overall the environment
is not terribly concerning from a severe perspective. Maybe just
some heavy rain and lightning with gusty winds and small hail.
Per cluster analysis chances for greater than 0.10" are 40% or
less for any given spot in a 24 hour period through Thursday.
Precip chances look to increase for next weekend but that will
depend on the how the synoptic pattern unfolds.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1127 PM CDT Sun Aug 9 2026

VFR conditions prevail through the period at all TAF sites.
Light and variable winds will continue overnight, then increase
very slightly heading into Monday. Mid level smoke is expected
to continue overnight, with a low chance for near surface smoke
heading into Monday morning.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Lynch
DISCUSSION...TT
AVIATION...Lynch