717
FXUS63 KFGF 141725
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1125 AM CST Fri Nov 14 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- There is a signal for precipitation chances heading into next
  week. At this time, the chance for minor winter impacts is
  around 10 percent.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1120 AM CST Fri Nov 14 2025

Upper level clouds continue across the area. Temperatures are
rapidly rising this late morning and will continue to rise to
near record highs. Limited weather impacts are expected today.

UPDATE
Issued at 936 AM CST Fri Nov 14 2025

High level clouds will continue to filter into the area this
afternoon. As mixing has begun to increase, temperatures have
begun to rise into the 40s and even low 50s. Southwest winds
will continue to rise through the afternoon today, aiding in
warming. Record highs remain possible this afternoon.

UPDATE
Issued at 650 AM CST Fri Nov 14 2025

Forecast is on track, with winds increasing from the south and
high (mostly transparent) clouds across the north. WAA in the
925-850MB layer has been increasing all morning, and once we
start mixing we should see temperature increase quickly. High
temperatures in the 60s still seems reasonable even with some
pockets of thicker high level cloud cover this afternoon and
climate sites are likely to be near or over daily records.
Current update was just to match near term temp trends this
morning.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 331 AM CST Fri Nov 14 2025

...Synopsis...

Large scale pattern continues to feature broad shortwave ridging
over the Northern Plains/Upper Midwest  with a split trough pattern
upstream over the Western US and Canadian Rockies. Rising heights
and a west-southwest competent to the cross mountain flow is
resulting in an anomalously warm air mass advecting into our
region, and highs today may reach daily records for some locations
(daily records are in the low to middle 60s). The mid level trough
over the Canadian Rockies eventually pushes east, and with the main
synoptic forcing remaining north and drier air in place measurable
precipitation chances are low late this afternoon into Saturday
morning, and predominantly tied to the associated cold frontal
passage (more likely just sprinkles than measurable showers).
Temperatures trend closer to seasonal ranges due to falling heights
and at least a period of brief northwest flow behind this shortwave.
Temperatures and precipitation chances/impacts become much less
certain as we head into next week as we transition to more of a
split-flow pattern.

...Low chance winter impacts next week...

The second split in the southern upstream trough evolves into a
cutoff low off the western US coast and gradually tracks east across
the Rockies an Plains next week. As is often the case with cutoff
features like this there is high ensemble spread in track/evolution
of the system and the interaction of this upper low and any
weak waves in the northern flow that may be closer to our CWA
would determine any wintry precipitation potential. The cutoff
low itself is associated with a much warmer air mass, with the
northern stream associated with colder airmasses. The ensemble
members that show any light to moderate snowfall or a wintry mix
in our CWA are often resolving slightly stronger embedded waves
in the northern stream where it is colder or just a little
stronger CAA as the cutoff low glances by our CWA Wed-Thu. These
amount to around 10% of members and match pWSSI probs for minor
category/advisory impacts. More likely scenario based on a
larger consensus of ensemble members is us remaining within the
gap of the split flow lowering the chances for any measurable
precipitation substantially.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1120 AM CST Fri Nov 14 2025

VFR conditions will prevail during the TAF period. Southwest
winds will increase through the afternoon. As a front sweeps
through this evening and overnight, winds will shift to
northwesterly with the chance for a few rain showers, but
aviation impacts should remain limited. Behind this, skies will
clear out to mostly clear by the end of the TAF period.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Perroux/DJR
DISCUSSION...DJR
AVIATION...Perroux