058
FXUS63 KFGF 281505
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1005 AM CDT Fri Mar 28 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- There is an 80 percent chance for at least 0.01 inches of ice
  and 20 percent chance of 0.10 inches of ice in the areas near
  the Canadian border.

- There is a 20 percent chance for minor (advisory) impacts due
  to snow west central Minnesota Saturday night.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1005 AM CDT Fri Mar 28 2025

Temperatures have remained warmer than expected along the
Highway 2 corridor from Grand Forks to Bemidji. While some
additional precipitation is expected to develop along mid-level
frontogenesis later this afternoon, think at this point that at
least our southern and southeastern portions of the current
advisory will be all liquid rain. Further north and west, it
will be cold enough for FZRA and the possibility of snow to
continue, so will keep the headline going.

UPDATE
Issued at 702 AM CDT Fri Mar 28 2025

Area of light rain is quickly moving east and extends from
Hallock to New Rockford at 12z. This produced about 0.03 inch at
Langdon...trace in Devils Lake. Temps in this area are in the
30-32 range....some some icing but overall road temps in the
impacted areas 32-33 as well. Road temps farther west Clyde to
Bottineau upper 20s. So when it went thru earlier likely some
icing. Precip area is moving very fast so impacts for most are
limited. 32 to 36 in the north valley at 12z with GFK at 36 and
CKN at 37 and TVF at 34. So would expect light rain and limited
to no issues with icing. Snow Warroad and Angle Inlet. On
regional radars the area of precipitation is moving east quickly
with limited precipitation or nothing west of Devils Lake. There
are some showers along MT/SK border and models do move this east
and as 850 mb temps cool some light snow remains possible this
aftn in parts of NE ND along the border.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 328 AM CDT Fri Mar 28 2025

...Synopsis...

500 mb short wave (not well defined on water vapor) will move
east-northeast into the Red River valley by 00z Sat. Surface
with this is to our south and will move from western into
eastern South Dakota. The next 500 mb will move from southern
California into Nebraska with sfc low forming in northern
Kansas. This 500 mb short wave will move into central Minnesota
by 12z Sunday with surface low in Iowa.  Another 500 mb short
wave is forecast to move into Nebraska into Minnesota Tuesday
night-Wed. So an active period ahead. With surface temperatures
in the 30s during precipitation, it will make precipitation type
highly uncertain.

...Ice & Snow Potential Today...

To our north in southern Canada is the remains of a strong 850
mb baroclinic zone and 850 mb warm advection/isentropic lift
zone that produced and is producing snow from Saskatoon to
Winnipeg with the south edge skirting Angle Inlet MN but not
Baudette and Roseau. In this area SPC meso page indicates mid
level frontogenetical forcing Winnipeg area southern parts of NW
Ontario at 12z but weakening and moving southeast as the day
progresses. Thus anticipate this band of snow to overall weaken
in time. But past snow and future snowfall fcsts indicate a 24
hour period snowfall of at least 4 inches is likely locally
higher right at Angle Inlet. Risk of 4 inches of snow into
Warroad and Baudette is less than 15 percent. Risk of at least
an inch of snow is generally 35-50 percent today from Langdon to
Hallock then highest around Baudette. Outside of areas around
Lake of the Woods, snow impacts today look minimal.

For icing potential. Main frontogenetical forcing with this
500 mb wave moving thru the area remains just north of the
border. And there has been freezing rain overnight in areas
south of Brandon Manitoba and near and just north of the
International border. Some spotty light rain northwest of
Bismarck but this precipitation is falling where temps are
above freezing. Thoughts are today potential for freezing rain
will remain highest along Manitoba border and mainly this
morning into early afternoon. But the longer the precipitation
and forcing remains north of the border and not south the less
ice impacts there will be.

Temperatures at 08z at above freezing over all but far northwest
fcst area. Not expecting a further drop thru morning and near
steady temps or rise a degree or two today far north where icing
has higher chance. With air temps around 30-33 though in favored
icing area impacts may be muted and limited to colder surfaces
and objects vs highways. Especially since the majority of any
precipitation will be after sunrise.

Uncertainty about midday thru the afternoon as models differ on
strength of sfc low as it moves into Minnesota. GFS remains
more bullish in having a second frontogenetical forcing band
form in part of northwest MN back toward Grand Forks. Other
models less aggressive but they all have an increase in
precipitation in the central RRV into Bemidji area this
afternoon. Temperatures though do look to be in the 34-37 range
in this precipitation area, at least as forecast, so highly
uncertain if any icing will be possible along Hwy 2 zone from
Grand Forks to Bemidji. If temps would cool enough and rain
heavy enough then could see temps fall to 31/32 this aftn along
Hwy 2 in MN and if so some travel impacts may occur.

So with all this will leave the advisory as is today.


...Saturday night snow chance west central MN...

Long range models for days have been having issues in tracking
this system and how north or south it will bring precipitation.
WPC and NBM precip and snow probs would indicate chance for more
than 3 inches (advisory range) to be less than 15 percent Elbow
Lake and Wadena. Now ensemble model probs for more than 3 inches
are higher with GEFS showing 30 pct chance of this, GEPS 45
percent chance, and European model 40 percent. So will need to
monitor for potential minor (advisory) impacts the next 24 hours
to see if better agreement will occur.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 702 AM CDT Fri Mar 28 2025

Easterly winds and dry air preventing lower ceilings forming in
most areas, except BJI. 12z TAFs issued may be way too
pessimistic as models blends indicate MVFR cigs mid morning and
after but high uncertainty in that. East to northeast wind
10-20 kts today.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...Winter Weather Advisory until 4 PM CDT this afternoon for
     NDZ006>008-014>016-026-054.
MN...Winter Weather Advisory until 4 PM CDT this afternoon for
     MNZ004-005-007-008.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for MNZ006-
     009.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Riddle/JR
DISCUSSION...Riddle
AVIATION...Riddle