931
FXUS63 KFGF 251212
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
712 AM CDT Tue Aug 25 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- There is a level 1 out of 5 risk for severe thunderstorms
  mainly this afternoon in north central Minnesota from Baudette
  thru Bemidji to Wadena. Hail to 1 inch and wind gusts 60 mph
  the main threats.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 447 AM CDT Tue Aug 25 2026

Scattered storms have moved east/northeast well ahead of a cold
front which is still back west of Baudette thru Crookston to
west of Fargo. Light winds make the exact location difficult and
dew points are such that there isnt a big drop off right behind
the front. One storm did intensify enough to warrant SPS for
wind gusts 40-45 mph and hail 1/2 to 3/4 inch over Lower Red
Lake. Plus nudger to issue is summer fishing season is ongoing
and resorts in the area are busy. So played it more cautious.

For later today.... a narrow zone of 1000-1500 j/kg instability
is forecast to exist from near Dryden Ontario to near
International Falls, Baudette areas south along the DLH/FGF
border region. Enough for SPC to maintain a level 1 out of 5
severe risk. HREF indicates higher instability and better
helicity tracks over the MN arrowhead region this afternoon/eve.

Otherwise upper low in east central Saskatchewan will move
east/southeast toward Winnipeg midday and then to near Kenora by
this evening. Expect wraparound clouds and a few showers and
t-storms to develop to the west and south of the upper low late
morning thru the afternoon and evening, primarily along and
north of Highway 2.



UPDATE
Issued at 1137 PM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026

Currently, the cold front is pushing through the Devils Lake
Basin. Earlier storms have waned in intensity or pushed entirely
out of the FA. A few storms have tried to form on the cold
front. Despite the relatively favorable parameter space (45
knots of effective shear, 2000 J/Kg of MUCAPE), these storms
have remained sub severe. Therefore, the window for an
additional severe storm or two seems to be closing. Rather,
general thunderstorms seem more likely overnight in the weakly
forced WAA regime or occasionally along the stronger forcing
provided by the cold front. Recent CAM solutions are also
coming into agreement on this idea. Severe Thunderstorm Watch
#625 remains in effect for another 90 minutes or so for portions
of eastern ND and adjacent areas of MN, and at this time
expansion/extension seems unlikely.

UPDATE
Issued at 628 PM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026

Severe thunderstorm watch #625 has been issued for much of
eastern North Dakota and northwestern MN. Deep convection has
initiated on a cold front across central ND. Further north,
satellite shows little cumulus development in our far western FA
and adjacent portions of Manitoba, so we likely still have an
hour or two until storms even initiate. Long, straight
hodographs with effective shear of up to 50 knots will promote
splitting supercells, with hail being the predominate threat.
Current thinking is that the cluster of supercells north of
Jamestown will continue to track east/southeastward towards
southeastern ND with time. Additional storms will develop in an
hour or two across southern Manitoba and northeastern ND. This
area of convection will also eventually track east/southeast
this evening into early tonight, impacting northern portions of
watch #625. The watch is in effect until 1 AM CDT.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 242 PM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026

...Synopsis...

A shortwave and associated cold front will move across the area late
today into Tuesday. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to form
along and ahead of the front, with scattered severe thunderstorms
possible during the late afternoon, evening, and overnight. Heading
into Tuesday, the lingering frontal boundary could still be situated
in northwest Minnesota, where there is a chance for isolated severe
thunderstorms, primarily east of the Red River Valley. In the post
frontal environment, cooler highs in the 70s to low 80s are expected
Tuesday through Thursday, with warmer temperatures this weekend as
weak ridging builds across the western CONUS and High Plains.
Additional shortwaves bring showers and thunderstorms back into the
forecast for Saturday and Sunday.

...Scattered Severe Storms This Evening and Overnight...

Instability is slowly building this afternoon as warmer temps and
higher moisture levels work into the area. Dew points have increased
into the lower to middle 60s in most areas, with SBCAPE values
generally in the 1500 to 2000 J/Kg range early this afternoon. Model
soundings show the potential for 2500 to 3000 J/Kg by early evening.
Mid level shear is present, but unidirectional above 700 mb, leading
to straight hodographs and a continued support for splitting
supercells. It is worth noting, however, that given the tendency to
split, these supercells are also likely to interact and eventually
form clusters. The primary hazard during the afternoon and early
evening will be large hail to the size of golf balls, with a low
chance for an isolated tornado. Due to relatively weak low level
shear, tornado risk will be dependent on longer lived supercells
that avoid interaction with nearby cells. With DCAPE in the 1100 to
1400 J/Kg range, damaging wind gusts to 70 mph are supported
late this afternoon through mid evening.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 709 AM CDT Tue Aug 25 2026

Starting off mostly clear except around Baudette and Waskish MN.
Will watch clouds build mid to late morning and into the
afternoon as colder air aloft moves southeast due to an upper
low moving toward Winnipeg. Looking at CU developing with bases
around 4-6k ft agl this afternoon and BKN coverage looks to be
north half of the area so kept Fargo SCT coverage thru the day,
with BKN elsewhere. NW Wind late morning and afternoon 12-25
kts, a few gusts over 25 kts. Scattered showers and a few
t-storms as well developing northern areas with the BKN CU but
at this time timing and coverage are uncertain enough to
preclude mention.





&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Rafferty/Riddle
DISCUSSION...Lynch
AVIATION...Riddle