297
FXUS63 KFGF 211136
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
536 AM CST Thu Nov 21 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Snow in the forecast for Saturday and Sunday, mainly along and
  north of HWY 200. Probability for 1" accumulations or higher
  greater than 40% in this area.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 317 AM CST Thu Nov 21 2024

...Synopsis...

Over eastern ND and MN this morning, stratus from the departing
system continues to linger. Snow on the ground is keeping
temperatures cooler, in addition to the cooler air mass. A trough is
expected to come through on the weekend, followed by NW flow aloft
over the state of North Dakota for the remainder of the period. The
weekend system will usher in more colder air, putting our highs next
work week in the teens and 20s.

...Weekend Snow...

As for the weekend system, the consensus on the track location
currently is north of the international border. Some guidance has
heavier snow further south than others, but the general area for
greatest snowfall is along and north of HWY 200. Probabilities for
1" of accumulation or more are 40 - 50% along the HWY 200 corridor,
and increase to 80%+ along the international border. If we bump up
probabilities to 2" or more, the 40 - 50% line moves north to HWY 2,
and 70 - 80% along the international border. Uncertainty still
remains on quite a few aspects of this system, but it looks to
affect eastern ND more than NW MN. Everyone looks to see at least a
dusting except our far southern counties (closer to the SD border).

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 536 AM CST Thu Nov 21 2024

Conditions should improve to MVFR or better by this afternoon as
the stratus clears. The exception to this is MN TAF sites, which
look to stay below MVFR into Friday morning. Winds will lessen
and go light and variable this afternoon and tonight.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...AH
AVIATION...AH