496
FXUS63 KFGF 182000 AAA
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
200 PM CST Tue Nov 18 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Widespread weather impacts are not expected through this
  weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 114 PM CST Tue Nov 18 2025

...Synopsis...

Weak flow aloft with water vapor imagery revealing a weakening
cut off low over the Midwest, broad upper ridging over the
Northern Plains into central Canada, as well as a well
established cut off low off of the California coast. A low
amplitude upper shortwave trough is also seen near the Northern
Rockies/southern Canadian Rockies. This weak flow regime also
translates to the surface, with broad surface high pressure over
northern MN into the Red River Valley. Some light rain
showers/sprinkles exist in eastern ND this afternoon into early
evening with weak instability utilized by weak warm air and
moisture advection.

The subtle shortwave trough in the Northern Rockies/southern
Canadian Rockies will slide eastward through the southern tier
of Canada tomorrow and Thursday. This will bring light
precipitation to our area Wednesday night into Thursday. Fog is
also forecast in areas outside of the Red River Valley as low
clouds move in, scraping against the surface.

Temperatures are forecast tonight into early Wednesday to be
just warm enough to keep precipitation type as dominantly a
cold, but non- freezing rain. However, there may be a very local
and brief overlap where precip initially falls as snow before
quickly transitioning to rain within portions of north- central
MN. The brevity of potential wintry mix will greatly limit
potential for impacts, with none forecast at this time. There is
an absence of mesoscale forcing/influence with this wave, thus
confidence is higher in this outcome.

Late this week into the weekend, ensemble guidance agrees
deepening broad upper troughing over Ontario into the Great
Lakes region and eventually over the Northeast, inducing flat
northwesterly flow aloft, with increasing winds aloft/jet. The
cut off low over the California coast is also strongly agreed to
survive while slowly migrate eastward into the Southern Plains
by late weekend. This pattern would generally promote
progressive surface frontal passages, and a general lack of
moisture to keep conditions mostly dry. Generally warmer than
average temperatures are forecast through this pattern despite
the frontal passages, with highs in the 30s and 40s. Some
locations are liable to reach into the 50s this weekend should
skies remain mostly sunny.

Ensemble guidance greatly diverges in synoptic evolution getting
into next week. This mainly stems from uncertainty in how the
cut off low now in the Southern Plains will interact and evolve
with the overall synoptic pattern, including interaction with a
potential shortwave trough out of the Pacific Northwest moving
into the central CONUS. Should both of these features interact
in a way that promotes more amplification of the pattern,
including troughing over the CONUS, the chance for
precipitation and colder air increases for our area (conversely
less amplification/interaction and/or ridging would promote
drier, warmer conditions). Overall, the chance for snow/wintry
precipitation into our area mid-next week (around Tuesday-
Wednesday) is around 20% as supported by NBM guidance as well as
cluster analysis of global ensembles, with no appreciable
signal for significant accumulations exceeding 3 inches present
at this time. The chance for advisory-level winter impacts is
around 10%, accounting for uncertainties around surface
temperatures promoting/hindering potential impacts from
potential accumulations.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 114 PM CST Tue Nov 18 2025

VFR conditions are forecast until around 06Z to 12Z where
lowering ceilings move into the region. MVFR to IFR ceilings are
forecast at all sites by 12Z, with lowest ceilings forecast at
sites like KDVL, KTVF, and KBJI. Lowered ceilings are forecast
to last through 18Z, likely into the afternoon Wednesday. Fog
may also develop at these aforementioned sites starting also
around 06Z, although confidence is low in how dense for may or
may not be. Should fog become dense, ceilings into VLIFR will
likely accompany visibility reductions less than half a mile.
Winds will be generally light through the TAF period, less than
10kt.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CJ
AVIATION...CJ