450
FXUS63 KFGF 130004
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
704 PM CDT Mon May 12 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A Red Flag Warning is in effect for critical fire weather in
  eastern North Dakota and northwest Minnesota into this
  evening. Critical fire weather conditions will continue into
  Tuesday, with a fire weather watch in effect.

- Winds will continue to gust up to 40 to 50 mph this afternoon
  and evening. Blowing dust will drop visibility down to a mile
  or less in a few spots.

- Widespread rain Wednesday night though Friday with a low (5%)
  chance for severe weather Wednesday late afternoon into
  Wednesday night.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 704 PM CDT Mon May 12 2025

Red Flag Warning continues for the next few hours. RH values are
still in the teens with a few low twenties west of the Red River
Valley. Winds remains strongest in the corridor from southeast
ND through the central Red River Valley into northwestern MN.
While blowing dust is still occuring, especially in this
corridor of stronger winds, visibilities are improving.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 340 PM CDT Mon May 12 2025

...Synopsis...

Southwesterly flow aloft continues through today and tomorrow as
the main upper trough digs into the Rockies. Surface trough
will remain fairly deep to our west, with a good pressure
gradient bringing strong southerly winds. A lead shortwave
coming out on Wednesday will bring increasing precipitation
chances west of the Red River, but at least some locations will
continue to see strong southerly winds and very warm
temperatures into mid-week. The true change in pattern will be
Thursday as the upper low starts to move out into the Plains and
Upper Midwest. An abrupt change to below average temperatures
for Friday and Saturday as northwesterly flow sets up behind the
trough and cold front moves through. Signs of another trough
approaching next Monday, although details uncertain at this
point.

...Critical fire weather conditions this evening and tomorrow...

See fire weather discussion below.

...Winds gusting this evening with blowing dust...

Strong mixing with many locations gusting up to 40 mph, and some
spots even getting above 45 to 50 mph. No sites have been
getting down to half a mile at this time, but a few locations
are down to 1 or 2 miles for a short period. Think that the
mention of blowing dust in the wind advisory should be
sufficient.

...Rain chances and severe weather possibility...

The shift in the pattern will bring the chance for some
precipitation late Wednesday and into the end of the week.
Timing of the lead shortwave on Wednesday looks like the the
best instability and lift will be to our west during peak
heating. However, any convection firing to our west will sustain
itself at least a little with elevated CAPE over 1200 J/kg in
the southern RRV and the low level jet kicking in and helping
deep layer shear get up to 40 kts. There is about a 5 percent
chance of some hail up to an inch and damaging winds Wednesday
night, mainly south of the Highway 200 corridor. The upper low
wraps up to our south and east by Thursday, and there is always
the possibility of some surprises in that kind of setup.
Widespread wetting rain is more certain, with high confidence of
over a tenth of an inch, and a 60 to 95 percent chance for over
a quarter of an inch. There is even a 50 percent chance for an
inch or more by Friday morning. Good cold air advection behind
the system on Friday into Saturday, so not out of the question
that a few snowflakes could mix in although confidence is low
and impacts look minimal.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 704 PM CDT Mon May 12 2025

Blowing dust reduced visibilities this afternoon, and will
likely reduce visibilities again Tuesday afternoon. The most
severe plumes of blowing dust seemed to orient themselves
through KGFK and KTVF today. With similar wind speed and
direction forecasted for Tuesday afternoon, MVFR visibilities
were added in KGFK and KTVF. Elsewhere, blowing dust may impact
visibility, but should remain VFR. LLWS is also a concern
overnight as a low level jet once again resides overhead,
dissipating just after sunrise. Southerly winds will remain
gusty through the whole period, but be strongest Tuesday
afternoon.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 340 PM CDT Mon May 12 2025

Afternoon relative humidity values will continue to be down in
the 15 to 20 percent range with gusts to 40 to 50 mph, so
certainly will keep the Red Flag going. Some recovery overnight
but not a lot as winds will continue to keep the boundary layer
mixed. Some spots may be below 40 percent but others will see
overnight RH values in the 40 to 50 percent range. Will let the
red flag go this evening but with temperatures again in the 90s
tomorrow and gusts over 40 mph again, a fire weather watch is
needed. Expecting slightly better dew points for Wednesday, but
again will be fairly breezy and warm ahead of the cold front, so
will just keep an eye out of things for now.

Finally Thursday will see widespread precipitation and cooler
temps suppressing the fire weather threat for late week.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 243 PM CDT Sat May 10 2025

Record High Temperatures:

May 12 (Monday):
NWS FGF/UND: 95/1900
KGFK: 91/1977
KFAR: 96/1900
KPKD: 89/1906
KBDE: 85/1991

May 13 (Tuesday):
NWS FGF/UND: 92/1932
KGFK: 93/1977
KFAR: 95/1894
KPKD: 91/1900
KBDE: 88/1932

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for NDZ006>008-
     014>016-024-026>030-038-039-049-052>054.
     Wind Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for NDZ008-016-
     026>030-038-039-049-052>054.
     Fire Weather Watch from Tuesday morning through Tuesday
     evening for NDZ006>008-014>016-024-026>030-038-039-049-
     052>054.
MN...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for MNZ001>009-
     013>017-022>024-027>032-040.
     Wind Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for MNZ001>005-007-
     008-013>015-022-027-029.
     Fire Weather Watch from Tuesday morning through Tuesday
     evening for MNZ001>009-013>017-022>024-027>032-040.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Rafferty
DISCUSSION...Riddle
AVIATION...Rafferty
FIRE WEATHER...Riddle/TT
CLIMATE...TT