810
FXUS64 KHGX 121124
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
624 AM CDT Thu Jun 12 2025

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Through Friday Night)
Issued at 505 AM CDT Thu Jun 12 2025

It probably suffices to say that the short term forecast is
dominated by the current storms across Southeast Texas, carrying a
threat for both severe weather and flooding. For lack of time,
this discussion will primarily be a rough summary of the situation
and a sketch of expectations going forward. Please see warning,
watch, and advisory text for details on specific storms and
flooding impacts.

Currently, a flood watch is in effect for a large majority of
Southeast Texas, and is coincident with a moderate risk (threat
level 3 of 4) for excessive rain. Flash flood warnings are in
effect from Matagorda Bay northeastward across most of Matagorda
County. Flood advisories are in place for the upper portions of
the Houston Ship Channel and Baytown northwestward to IAH and
Kingwood.

Strong storms with heavy rain and some isolated potential to
become severe will continue today. Late this afternoon or this
evening, we`ll see this round of storms make their way off to the
east, and we will get another short break until we move into the
next opportunity for storms late tonight into Friday.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 505 AM CDT Thu Jun 12 2025

Active weather continues this weekend with periods of showers and
thunderstorms likely into next week. Midlevel ridging over the
Desert Southwest/North Mexico is progged to gradually shift E/NE and
amplify over the next several days, though it`ll remain distant
enough such that a few disturbances & shortwave impulses will be
able to wedge their way south and pass through the region,
particularly over our north/eastern zones across the Piney Woods
area. With deep moisture and high PWs of 1.8-2.4 inches still
expected, there will be a daily risk of heavy downpours from the
strongest of these storms. WPC maintains a Marginal (level 1/4) risk
of Excessive rainfall over the weekend, and may extend this risk
into early next week as this deep moisture remains in place.
Additional rainfall amounts from Saturday through Wednesday will
generally be under 0.75 inches during this period, though isolated
higher amounts will be possible each day, especially in areas
further north/east. Rainfall from earlier this week will likely
increase soil saturation, making them more prone to runoff. Rises in
creeks and streams are likely as a result. Minor to Moderate river
flooding is still ongoing over portions of the Trinity river and
will likely continue as a result of this additional rainfall.

The aforementioned midlevel ridge shifts east of the state on
Wednesday, providing a lull in rainfall as it axis passes over the
region. Uncertainty grows thereafter as global models shift out of
phase, but overall rain chances look to be on the rise are more PVA
intrudes into the region.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 624 AM CDT Thu Jun 12 2025

Difficult morning of flight conditions across SE Texas as storms
move across the area. UTS/CXO/IAH are actually in a slight lull at
the moment, but should fill in after an hour or two for another
bout of showers and storms into the mid-day. In the early
afternoon, storms make their way out with a few hours of lingering
showers before we get a break this evening and much of the night
with fair weather and generally southerly winds. However, showers
and storms look to redevelop again late tonight, and give most or
all of the area another crack at TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 505 AM CDT Thu Jun 12 2025

Mariners should be on the lookout for the next disturbance and
associated line of storms to approach the waters this morning. Wind
gusts to gale force, reduced visibility in rain, and higher chaotic
seas will be possible in and around thunderstorms Thursday morning
as they pass through the area. Light to moderate onshore winds will
prevail over the next several days, warranting caution flags at
times. Scattered showers and storms will be possible daily, some of
which could be strong, capable of producing strong winds around 30
to 40 knots, tropical funnels & waterspouts.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  81  73  90  75 /  90  30  40  10
Houston (IAH)  84  75  90  77 /  90  30  50  10
Galveston (GLS)  88  80  88  82 /  80  40  40  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Flood Watch through this evening for TXZ163-164-176-177-195>199-
     210>213-226-227-235>238-313-335>338-436>438.

GM...Small Craft Should Exercise Caution until 10 AM CDT this morning
     for GMZ330-335-350-355.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Luchs
LONG TERM....03
AVIATION...Luchs
MARINE...03