Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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FXUS64 KHGX 071143
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
543 AM CST Sun Mar 7 2021

.AVIATION [12Z TAF Issuance]...

Latest visible satellite shows nothing more than a few areas of
high cirrus, with cloud cover expected to remain at a minimum
through the duration of the TAF period. Conditions should remain
within VFR thresholds, with winds gradually shifting from the east
to the southeast over the next 24 hours. Wind speeds should remain
near or below 10 knots.

Cady

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 334 AM CST Sun Mar 7 2021/

DISCUSSION...

It wasn`t quite quickly enough, but thoughts of winter will fade
away this week. First, the weekend is cooler after last Friday`s
cold front, but only modestly so. And we now begin a warming trend
that will bring low temps up into the 60s and highs up into the
lower half of the 80s later this week. While some short spritzes
may crop up here and there as moisture builds through the week,
solid rain chances won`t really show up on the scene until the end
of the week.

SHORT TERM [Through Monday Night]...

With recent satellite imagery showing only a few areas of cirrus
aloft, surface high pressure/upper ridging dominating the synoptic
pattern and light east-northeasterly winds continuing to provide
cooler and drier air to SE TX, Sunday is shaping up to be another
pleasant day across the area. Cloud cover should remain minimal and
afternoon highs once again look to reach the vicinity of 70 degrees
at most locations. With conditions remaining largely cloud-free
through the evening, nocturnal cooling will remain efficient and
lows will dip into the upper 30s to 40s again overnight.

The beginnings of what will be an extended period of warmer and more
humid weather will begin to take hold on Monday as the dominant
surface high pushes further eastward towards the southeastern CONUS.
As winds concurrently shift to the southeast and moisture
transport/WAA increase, look for a modest increase in afternoon
highs (low/mid 70s) and a slightly more substantial increase in
surface dewpoints. With this pattern shift promoting the development
of a broken/overcast deck overnight on Monday (combined with the
aforementioned WAA), overnight lows will stay in the mid to upper
50s at most locations.

LONG TERM [Tuesday Through Sunday]...

The story of the long term will be the amplification of a stacked
eastern US ridge and western US trough pattern, putting us
underneath southwest flow aloft. Surface flow will be dominated
by high pressure to the east, giving us persistent onshore flow
through the week. As a result, we should expect the seasonable
weekend temperatures to gradually drift further upwards through
the 70s and into the 80s for highs by late week. Similarly, the
increasing humidity from the low level moisture return will make
for low temperatures increasing into the middle 60s. So, yes, late
week low temps will be getting dangerously close to average high
temperatures for this time of year. My sweet winter child, summer
is coming.

As we move towards the weekend, the deep western trough will
slowly begin to make its way east. The GFS has started to join the
Euro in being not nearly as progressive with the main trough - not
particularly a surprise given the amplitude of the upper pattern.
As we discussed in the office a little earlier - when the waveys
get really long, they tend to not move so fast. So, while a
surface low is still expected to spin up in the Plains and make
its way northeast, the trailing cold front isn`t likely to pose
any threat of working into our forecast area. Again, perhaps
unsurprisingly, the NBM deterministic numbers continue to be
overcorrected. In chatting with the neighbors, we all thought it
best to continue to shooting more towards the NBM median values,
thanks to the persistent onshore flow and no front expected.

Eventually, the deep trough will drop off the Rockies and spin up
a lee cyclone of its own. This should be powerful enough to push a
front into our area. But, it`s probably still too early to get
real specific on timing with this. But, we should be thinking more
late weekend/early next week rather than late this week/early this
weekend.

MARINE...

Buoy observations across the coastal waters continue to report wind
speeds between 15 and 20 knots overnight, prompting an extension of
the Small Craft Exercise Caution for all zones aside from Matagorda
Bay through mid-morning. With the dominant area of surface high
pressure drifting eastward this evening and into Monday, a return to
moderate onshore winds is expected. These winds will strengthen by
mid-week as a deepening surface low along the leeside of the Rockies
tightens the synoptic pressure gradient. Global models continue to
show the passage of our next cold front late next weekend, though a
great deal of uncertainty remains regarding this feature`s
development.

FIRE WEATHER...

Another seasonable and dry day is expected. Look for temperatures
to be around or a little below 70 degrees, with minimum RH
falling below 30 percent for the large majority of the area. Winds
will slowly become more onshore later today, which will keep
humidity modestly higher at the coast. Mitigating the low humidity
values inland will be relatively light winds, of 5-10 mph for
most. Some gusts near the coast may push towards 15 mph as a weak,
early season sea breeze sets up. Winds will continue to take on a
greater onshore component into the new week, which will spur a
trend to warmer and more humid conditions.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)      69  40  72  53  77 /   0   0   0   0  10
Houston (IAH)              70  45  71  55  76 /   0   0   0   0  10
Galveston (GLS)            63  56  66  60  70 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Luchs
SHORT TERM...Cady
LONG TERM...Luchs
AVIATION...Cady
MARINE...Cady
FIRE WEATHER...Luchs


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