Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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FXUS64 KHGX 250513

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1213 AM CDT Sun Aug 25 2019

.AVIATION [06Z TAF Issuance]...
A few lingering thunderstorms persisting in the vicinity of CXO,
CLL, and UTS tonight, although these storms should dissapate over
the next couple of hours. VFR conditions are expected overnight
and into tomorrow at all terminals, aside from the possibility of
some fog development to produce brief MVFR to IFR visibilities at
CXO. Tomorrow, the redevelopment of SHRA/TSRA over the coastal
waters is again expected with a weak to moderate onshore flow
pattern remaining in place and strong low level moisture present.
Precipitation should make its way to the coastal terminals by
12Z, reaching metro sites by 16 to 18Z. Remaining with VCSH/VCTS
language in TAFs, as confidence in exact coverage and extent of
developing SHRA/TSRA remains low.



PREV DISCUSSION /Issued 321 PM CDT Sat Aug 24 2019/...

Short term and global models have done a poor job initializing
conditions today and showers and thunderstorms have been slow to
develop. Convective temperatures are in the middle 80`s and this
threshold has been met. Upper level winds are also broadly
divergent so am a little perplexed as to why convection has not
developed. Think the Texas Tech WRF has initialized the best and
this model suggests that there will be development in the next
hour or so. Will maintain chance PoPs inland for this evening.
SHRA/TSRA over the Gulf will continue overnight and this should
impinge on the coast and will carry likely PoPs along the
immediate coast. Weak low pressure over the Gulf has remained
disorganized and whatever is left of the low will likely get
gobbled up by a trough over the central plains/MS delta on Sunday.
PW values on Sunday remain between 1.90 and 2.25 inches.
Convective temperatures are in the lower 90`s which looks
reachable so am expecting shra/tsra to develop with heating. Upper
level winds still look favorable on Sunday before subsidence
kicks in Sunday night and Monday. 43

The upper level trough over the central US will shift east Sunday
night and upper level ridging over the western US will move back
into the area. Subsidence associated with the upper ridge will
bring drier conditions and much warmer temperatures through mid
week. The ridge breaks down a bit and retreats west Thu/Fri. A
weak front will slide into East Texas on Thursday but pressure
rises behind the front don`t look too impressive so it is unclear
if the front will make it all the way across SE TX or stall across
the area. The front will bring a renewed chance of precip Wed
night into Friday. 850 mb temps cool a bit so would expect
slightly cooler daytime highs Thu/Fri. 43

High moisture within a continued unsettled maritime environment will
likely allow for the redevelopment of late Saturday through early
Sunday scattered showers and thunderstorms. High pressure over the
northern Gulf will maintain a generally weak onshore wind field
through Sunday afternoon. A slight deepening of Texas Panhandle
pressure will create a tight enough onshore pressure gradient to
produce more moderate early work week southerlies. Caution level
winds are forecast late tomorrow through Monday morning. Overnight
Tuesday morning winds may also perk back up to around Caution
criteria mainly due to the localized mix down of slightly stronger
mid level winds. Early week average sea heights will gradually pick
up by another foot or so, to 3 to 4 feet, but then fall back to
around 2 to 3 feet mid to late week. Mid to late week high pressure
at all levels will maintain weak onshore winds and low seas. 31


College Station (CLL)      77  97  79 100  78 /  30  20  10  10   0
Houston (IAH)              77  94  80  97  80 /  30  50  10  20  10
Galveston (GLS)            81  91  84  92  85 /  60  70  20  20  10



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