Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX
820 FXUS64 KHGX 072352 AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 552 PM CST Sat Feb 7 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Warm weather is expected through at least midweek next week. - A chance showers and thunderstorms on Tuesday as a weak disturbance moves through the region. Will need to monitor for the potential for some of these storms to be on the stronger side. - Potential for fog and sea fog increases tonight, and will be possible nightly through at least midweek next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1055 AM CST Sat Feb 7 2026 A weak backdoor cold front (a cold front moving in from the NE rather than the W/NW) has moved through the region, but this will not really be noticeable other than an easterly wind shift for today. Passing upper-level ridging is keeping us dry and warm (despite the passing cold front) for today with high temperatures likely rising into the mid to upper 70s for most of the region. Afternoon high temperatures will remain in the mid to upper 70s through Tuesday, but a warming trend in the overnight temperatures is expected thanks to southeasterly flow bringing moisture back to the region. Overnight temperatures will be in the upper 40s to low 50s tonight, then mid to upper 50s Sunday night, and the upper 50s to low 60s Monday night through at least midweek next week. An upper-level low will be passing through Texas Tuesday into Tuesday night, bringing our next chance for some showers and thunderstorms. We may begin to see some light showers beginning as early as Tuesday morning as weak shortwaves ahead of the main disturbance passes through the region, but the chance for rain increases late Tuesday/Tuesday night. There will be decent amounts of shear in the area, so will have to monitor for the potential of isolated strong thunderstorms - but, as of now, instability looks to be relatively low. This will be something to monitor in the next couple of days as short-range guidance comes into play. The disturbance exits to the east by early Wednesday morning with a strong upper-level ridge building in behind it Wednesday afternoon into Friday. The rising heights and mostly sunny skies will lead to high temperatures into the low to potentially mid-80s Wednesday through Friday. Another thing to monitor beginning tonight into at least midweek next week will be the potential of patchy, dense fog developing nightly. Fowler && .AVIATION... (00Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 552 PM CST Sat Feb 7 2026 Clear skies and southeasterly to easterly winds will persist going into the evening hours. The main story for the overnight into Sunday morning timeframe will be the potential for patchy fog and low ceilings. Upper level cloud cover gradually increases overnight, but there may be enough breaks in the cloud cover paired with light and variable winds for IFR ceilings/visibilities to develop. LIFR conditions cannot be entirely ruled out, especially between 10Z-15Z. Any fog that develops will dissipated by 15Z-16Z leading to the return of VFR conditions. Winds will pick up out of the south-southwest around 7-10 kt through the afternoon with a gradual transition to southerly towards the end of the TAF period. There will be potential for another round of fog and low ceilings Sunday night into Monday morning. Batiste && .MARINE... Issued at 1055 AM CST Sat Feb 7 2026 Light to occasionally moderate easterly winds will continue through this afternoon with southeasterly to southerly winds developing tonight and remaining in place through the next several days. Fog will become a concern beginning as early as tonight, and remain possible nightly through at least midweek next week. Fog potential tonight looks to be greatest in the northern parts of the Bays as radiational fog spills over into the waters, but sea fog becomes more likely beginning Sunday night as the southeasterly winds usher in moisture. Fog coverage will be greatest during the overnight to morning periods, but cannot out rule some patchy fog lingering into the afternoon in the near shore waters on Monday. A disturbance moving through the area will bring a chance of showers and thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday night for the coastal waters. Fowler && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 49 79 56 81 / 0 0 0 0 Houston (IAH) 51 77 57 80 / 0 0 0 0 Galveston (GLS) 55 67 58 72 / 0 0 0 0 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Fowler AVIATION...Batiste MARINE...Fowler