


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX
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729 FXUS64 KHGX 161714 AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 1214 PM CDT Fri May 16 2025 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Saturday Night) Issued at 255 AM CDT Fri May 16 2025 We`re only in mid May and I`m already running out of ways to say that it`s hot, so let me just crack open the ol` thesaurus here and find a good word to use. Let`s see...steamy is a good one since high humidity is implied...there`s also sizzling but that reminds me more of fajitas than weather...oh how about this one...sweltering! Yeah we`ll go with that...sweltering conditions continue as we remain under the influence of ridging aloft that will keep us at least near record temperatures...and that`s for both daily high maximum temperatures and daily high minimum temperatures (looking at you Palacios). It`s not all bad news though as there are some slim rain chances to discuss for our northern areas, but we`ll focus on the hot topic first. High temperatures both today and Saturday will top out in the mid to upper 90s for areas along and north of I-10 with upper 80s to mid 90s south of I-10. Dew points remain VERY elevated, so we`ll continue to see heat indices peaking in the 100-105F range. The HeatRisk map through Saturday outlines most of Southeast Texas in a major risk for heat-related impacts (level 3 out of 4), so be sure to take the proper precautions to keep you and your loved ones (including your pets) safe from the heat. Heat-related illnesses typically spike during early season heat events like this...take a little bit of time to learn the signs/symptoms. There won`t be much relief during the overnight hours with low temperatures only in the mid to upper 70s. As mentioned earlier, even the low temperatures will be near record territory (high minimum temperatures). Our only sources of relief other than the A/C is that we`ll keep our southerly breeze going (albeit lighter than previous days) along with a slim chance for rain both this evening and Saturday evening. Latest surface analysis reveals a frontal boundary over central Texas and a dry line extending southwestward from that boundary into western Texas. These won`t move all that much during the day, maybe just a bit more southward. 00Z CAM guidance is in agreement on convection firing off of either one or both of these boundaries this afternoon and drifting eastward. Like we talked about yesterday, there is a capping inversion aloft that this convection would have to battle as it moves into an area of increased subsidence. So, the main question is will these storms survive long enough to bring any rain to the Brazos Valley/Piney Woods going into the evening...and the answer is maybe? Giving it about a 15-20% chance of occuring. Can you tell how desperate we are to talk about something other than the heat that I spent nearly an entire paragraph talking about a 20% chance of rain? Yeah...that`s where we`re at already... More good news! Everything I just said in the above paragraph...add 24 hours to that and apply it to Saturday. The main difference is the dry line will be a bit further west, but the latest CAM guidance still has decent consensus that at least a couple of storms could survive long enough for another round low-end PoPs for our northern areas. Is this a good time to mention that winds should subside enough tonight into Saturday morning for a decent chance of patchy fog development? No? Whelp...we`ll call that a mist opportunity :P TL;DR: Near record to record breaking heat continues with a slim chance of rain up north late in the day both today and Saturday. Batiste && .LONG TERM... (Sunday through Thursday) Issued at 255 AM CDT Fri May 16 2025 We will remain in a benign weather period through the long-term courtesy of a mid-level ridge stationed over the Gulf. This positioning of the high pressure system will result in continued southerly/onshore flow which will lead to prevailing hot and humid conditions. Daily highs will continue to run well above normal for this time of year Temperatures will generally be in the mid to upper 90s north of I-10, low to mid 90s south of I-10 and in the upper 80s to low 90s along the coast. While Heat indices are projected to be in the 100-107F range inland, the position of a stalled boundary may result in a tighter pressure gradient and lead to stronger winds. This could consequently make temperatures feel slightly cooler; however, heat impacts will still be a concern. The mid-upper level trough will move across the Plains next week. This could bring slightly cooler temperatures to portions of the area; however, highs will generally be in the 90s. Another weak front is projected to stall in Central Texas, which will lead to an increase in moisture over SE Texas (PW around 1.7-2.0"). Again, this could lead to a tightening pressure gradient and stronger surface winds for Monday and Tuesday (15-20 mph). This will provide a bit of relief with heat. Isolated thunderstorms will also be possible for the Brazos Valley and portions of the Piney woods region on Tuesday. Otherwise, the heat and humidity continues...continue to exercise heat safety by avoiding strenuous activity during the afternoon hours, staying hydrated, and LOOK BEFORE YOU LOCK! Adams && .AVIATION... (18Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 1205 PM CDT Fri May 16 2025 MVFR CIGS should scatter & lift over the next hour, ushering in VFR conditions throughout the rest of the daytime. Gusty south winds continue this afternoon, easing and becoming light this evening. MVFR CIGS should slowly fill in from the coast during the late afternoon/tonight, with IFR CIGS looking more feasible during the early morning hours of Saturday (compared to this morning), mostly in areas south of I-10. Isolated patchy fog will be possible as well during the pre-dawn hours. CIGS/Fog will scatter, lift and clear during the mid to late morning hours as gusty winds resume. 03 && .MARINE... Issued at 255 AM CDT Fri May 16 2025 Southeast winds are expected to prevail through the period as a surface high remains parked over the Gulf. Light to moderate onshore winds will prevail at least through next Wednesday. Winds and seas could reach advisory levels at times early next week. Overall, dry and warm weather will prevail within the next 7 days. Beach and Swimming Conditions: Above average water levels are expected, especially during the high tide cycles. This could result in isolated/minor coastal flooding due to elevated tides through early this evening. The risk of rip currents also continues along all Gulf-facing beaches and will likely persist into the weekend. Adams && .CLIMATE... Issued at 255 AM CDT Fri May 16 2025 With multiple days of near record to record breaking heat possible going into early next week, here`s a look at the daily high temperature records through Tuesday (May 20th). May 16th High Temperature Records --------------------------------- - College Station: 95F (2003) - Houston/IAH: 94F (2022) - Houston/Hobby: 94F (2022) - Palacios: 88F (2010) - Galveston: 90F (2022) May 17th High Temperature Records --------------------------------- - College Station: 96F (1925) - Houston/IAH: 96F (2018) - Houston/Hobby: 94F (2018) - Palacios: 93F (2003) - Galveston: 90F (2020) May 18th High Temperature Records --------------------------------- - College Station: 98F (2022) - Houston/IAH: 95F (2022) - Houston/Hobby: 94F (2022) - Palacios: 89F (2022) - Galveston: 90F (2022) May 19th High Temperature Records --------------------------------- - College Station: 94F (2022) - Houston/IAH: 95F (2003) - Houston/Hobby: 94F (2008) - Palacios: 89F (2024) - Galveston: 90F (2022) May 20th High Temperature Records --------------------------------- - College Station: 96F (2022) - Houston/IAH: 95F (2020) - Houston/Hobby: 95F (2008) - Palacios: 95F (1943) - Galveston: 91F (2022) Batiste && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 96 76 96 75 / 10 20 20 20 Houston (IAH) 95 77 95 78 / 0 0 0 0 Galveston (GLS) 87 77 86 78 / 0 10 0 0 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...High Rip Current Risk until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ436>439. GM...Small Craft Should Exercise Caution through late tonight for GMZ370-375. && $$ SHORT TERM...Batiste LONG TERM....Adams AVIATION...03 MARINE...Adams