Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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FXUS64 KHGX 190542

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1142 PM CST Sun Nov 18 2018

Some minor changes to the current package...IFR/LIFR ceilings
continue over the areas mainly CXO southward. A few showers and
patches of light rain developing to the west and southwest
spreading northeastward into the region. Isentropic upglide will
continue across the region and shortwave near DRT will be tracking
toward the area leading to an increase in lift of the saturated
column between the surface and 700mb this should bring increasing
coverage of light rain and possibly some embedded showers.
IFR/LIFR conditions should prevail through mid morning then slowly
lift with the last shot of showers departing the area. The
afternoon should be MVFR with a clearing line moving in from the
northwest and north. A cirrus expanse should spread into the area
during the afternoon.



Winds offshore remaining in the 10-15 knot range tonight but
tomorrow as the lower pressure area along the frontal boundary
pulls out to the east and weak CAA may see a period of SCEC
conditions in the afternoon.


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 946 PM CST Sun Nov 18 2018/

The cold front appears to have finally made it off the entire SE
TX coast this evening...with overrunning rains persisting across
the area. We should see an uptick in coverage/strength with this
activity overnight through early Mon morning with the passage of
another shortwave (embedded in the upper flow). These rains will
be moving off the coast by late Mon afternoon. In the meanwhile,
the best rain chances (along with isolated thunderstorms) should
be over the southern half of the CWA and the coastal waters. The
current forecast/grids look on track and no major changes are on
tap for this update. 41

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 625 PM CST Sun Nov 18 2018/

Deep weak isentropic lift continuing across the area with very
light rain ongoing over parts of the region. An area of deeper
showers and an isolated thunderstorm southwest of Matagorda Bay.
Cold front has pushed through GLS although just barely. Wide swath
of IFR/LIFR ceilings and IFR/MVFR visibility between CXO-LBX-PSX
right behind the front. The front should continue to creep
southward but not much tonight. Shortwave moving in from the west
will likely provide another shot of lift after midnight through
late morning leading to redevelopment of light rain and possibly
showers over the IAH area south to the coast. Close to the coast
can`t rule out a thunderstorm or two. Expecting ceilings and
visibility to fluctuate quite a bit tonight/Monday morning with it
bouncing around between LIFR and MVFR. Drier air spreads into the
area Monday afternoon with rains ending and ceilings on the
increase to VFR by late afternoon/evening. 45

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 208 PM CST Sun Nov 18 2018/

The cold front is located from near PSX to HOU and will continue
to push SE at a slower pace than we saw this morning. W/NW areas
have remained in the upper 40s today while upper coastal areas
have been in the upper 60s. Areas of mainly light rain continue to
develop across all of SE Texas. There have been a few TSRA near
the coastal bend this afternoon and it is possible we will some
isolated TSRA near the coast overnight. Showers are likely across
the eastern 2/3 of southeast Texas through Monday afternoon, then
drier air will filter in from the NW and the shower activity will
gradually shift offshore.

We will see ample sunshine on Tuesday with highs warming into the
60s. Global model guidance is in agreement that the next round of
precipitation will begin around mid-day Wednesday and expand
inland and in coverage Wednesday evening, then shift east of the
area late Wednesday night. This will allow for a mostly dry
Thanksgiving...still a slight chance of a few showers near the
coast during the morning. Model guidance begins to diverge
on Friday regarding the intensity and speed of another
approaching mid/upper trough. Have opted for a compromise at this
point with a slight chance of rain and max temps in the mid 60s to
lower 70s. Not much confidence on the pop/temp forecast for next
weekend yet. 33


College Station (CLL)      44  53  41  62  41 /  40  30   0   0   0
Houston (IAH)              49  53  45  62  44 /  70  70  10   0   0
Galveston (GLS)            57  59  52  62  54 /  70  70  20  10   0




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