Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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FXUS64 KHGX 230456
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1156 PM CDT Tue Jun 22 2021

.AVIATION [06Z TAF Issuance]...
A band of stratoCU from Galveston Bay up through IAH and likely
expanding north in the next few hours. Strong cap at around 500mb
should hamper any convective development until after 14z but MVFR
ceilings will spread over the northern sites 07-10z. Fairly
typical summer diurnal pattern takes over with scattered showers
in the morning spreading inland and becoming widely scattered
thunderstorms. For now will only carry VCSH becoming VCTS 15-18z.
Short term guidance focusing over HOU/IAH in the afternoon though
am skeptical that it will be quite the focused. Drier air expands
over the area with warmer column and mostly clear skies should
prevail by late evening.
45


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /Issued 817 PM CDT Tue Jun 22 2021/...





.SHORT TERM [Tonight Through Wednesday]...

Storms blew up along the seabreeze late this afternoon and are
still chugging along to the west-northwest. Convergence has been
localized mainly Houston westward but expect to see a few start
developing to the east of Houston. These have been fairly slow
moving with rainfall rates of 1-2"/hr but outflow has kept them
from parking and piling it up quite like last night except in
Wharton county. These should start to scatter out and dissipate
in the next hour or two with loss of heating and weakening
convergence on the boundary. It should be quiet overnight with
skies clearing out by around midnight then starting to cloud back
up with the remains of the cold front still draped over the area.
Storms overnight should focus over the Gulf along the windshift
then gradually lift north. Showers over the Gulf in the morning
spreading into the coastal counties and following the typical
summer pattern of destabilization late morning/afternoon with a
seabreeze and scattered showers and thunderstorms.
45


.LONG TERM...[Thursday through Tuesday]

A weak upper level ridge centered over West Texas will bring
slightly warmer temperatures to the region for the second half of
the work week. MaxT values will range from the middle to upper
90`s most areas for Thursday and Friday. There looks like there
will be enough moisture trapped beneath the ridge to allow for
mainly diurnally driven showers and thunderstorms especially over
the eastern half of the CWA. By Saturday, a well defined short
wave over the northern plains will dig SE and phase with a second
short wave over the central Rockies. This will aid in creating a
long wave trough that will stuck between an upper level ridge
over Nevada and another ridge over the SE US. Over the Gulf, an
inverted upper trough will be moving westward toward the Texas
coast. The inverted upper trough should arrive on Sunday and areas
east of the trough axis should have the higher rain chances on
Sunday afternoon. Went cooler on Sunday as clouds and precip
should keep MaxT values in the lower 90`s. A closed upper low will
form over Iowa by Monday night and this feature coupled with the
inverted upper trough over S TX should provide the area with a
good chance of precipitation. SE TX will lie in a weakness aloft
Tuesday-Thursday of next week with a good chance for showers and
thunderstorms each day with MaxT values near or slightly below
climo. 43


.MARINE...

High pressure over the eastern Gulf will maintain a light to
moderate onshore flow through the end of the week. Despite the
light winds, seas will remain slightly elevated tonight. A weak
coastal trough will develop off the South Texas coast over the
weekend and this feature could induce more of an east wind
Sat/Sun. 43

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

College Station (CLL)  75  93  77  95  77 /   0  20  10  10   0
Houston (IAH)          77  92  78  95  78 /  40  40  20  30  10
Galveston (GLS)        81  90  81  91  83 /  20  40  20  20  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

TX...High Rip Current Risk until 1 AM CDT Wednesday for the following
     zones: Bolivar Peninsula...Brazoria Islands...Galveston
     Island...Matagorda Islands.

GM...None.

&&

$$


SHORT TERM...45
LONG TERM...Batiste


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