729
FXUS64 KHGX 161714
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1214 PM CDT Fri May 16 2025

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday Night)
Issued at 255 AM CDT Fri May 16 2025

We`re only in mid May and I`m already running out of ways to say
that it`s hot, so let me just crack open the ol` thesaurus here and
find a good word to use. Let`s see...steamy is a good one since high
humidity is implied...there`s also sizzling but that reminds me more
of fajitas than weather...oh how about this one...sweltering! Yeah
we`ll go with that...sweltering conditions continue as we remain
under the influence of ridging aloft that will keep us at least
near record temperatures...and that`s for both daily high maximum
temperatures and daily high minimum temperatures (looking at you
Palacios). It`s not all bad news though as there are some slim
rain chances to discuss for our northern areas, but we`ll focus on
the hot topic first. High temperatures both today and Saturday
will top out in the mid to upper 90s for areas along and north of
I-10 with upper 80s to mid 90s south of I-10. Dew points remain
VERY elevated, so we`ll continue to see heat indices peaking in
the 100-105F range. The HeatRisk map through Saturday outlines
most of Southeast Texas in a major risk for heat-related impacts
(level 3 out of 4), so be sure to take the proper precautions to
keep you and your loved ones (including your pets) safe from the
heat. Heat-related illnesses typically spike during early season
heat events like this...take a little bit of time to learn the
signs/symptoms.

There won`t be much relief during the overnight hours with low
temperatures only in the mid to upper 70s. As mentioned earlier,
even the low temperatures will be near record territory (high
minimum temperatures). Our only sources of relief other than the A/C
is that we`ll keep our southerly breeze going (albeit lighter than
previous days) along with a slim chance for rain both this evening
and Saturday evening. Latest surface analysis reveals a frontal
boundary over central Texas and a dry line extending southwestward
from that boundary into western Texas. These won`t move all that
much during the day, maybe just a bit more southward. 00Z CAM
guidance is in agreement on convection firing off of either one or
both of these boundaries this afternoon and drifting eastward. Like
we talked about yesterday, there is a capping inversion aloft that
this convection would have to battle as it moves into an area of
increased subsidence. So, the main question is will these storms
survive long enough to bring any rain to the Brazos Valley/Piney
Woods going into the evening...and the answer is maybe? Giving it
about a 15-20% chance of occuring. Can you tell how desperate we are
to talk about something other than the heat that I spent nearly an
entire paragraph talking about a 20% chance of rain? Yeah...that`s
where we`re at already...

More good news! Everything I just said in the above paragraph...add
24 hours to that and apply it to Saturday. The main difference is
the dry line will be a bit further west, but the latest CAM guidance
still has decent consensus that at least a couple of storms could
survive long enough for another round low-end PoPs for our northern
areas. Is this a good time to mention that winds should subside
enough tonight into Saturday morning for a decent chance of patchy
fog development? No? Whelp...we`ll call that a mist opportunity :P

TL;DR: Near record to record breaking heat continues with a slim
chance of rain up north late in the day both today and Saturday.

Batiste

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 255 AM CDT Fri May 16 2025

We will remain in a benign weather period through the long-term
courtesy of a mid-level ridge stationed over the Gulf.

This positioning of the high pressure system will result in
continued southerly/onshore flow which will lead to prevailing hot
and humid conditions. Daily highs will continue to run well above
normal for this time of year Temperatures will generally be in the
mid to upper 90s north of I-10, low to mid 90s south of I-10 and in
the upper 80s to low 90s along the coast. While Heat indices are
projected to be in the 100-107F range inland, the position of a
stalled boundary may result in a tighter pressure gradient and lead
to stronger winds. This could consequently make temperatures feel
slightly cooler; however, heat impacts will still be a concern.

The mid-upper level trough will move across the Plains next week.
This could bring slightly cooler temperatures to portions of the
area; however, highs will generally be in the 90s. Another weak
front is projected to stall in Central Texas, which will lead to an
increase in moisture over SE Texas (PW around 1.7-2.0"). Again, this
could lead to a tightening pressure gradient and stronger surface
winds for Monday and Tuesday (15-20 mph). This will provide a bit of
relief with heat. Isolated thunderstorms will also be possible for
the Brazos Valley and portions of the Piney woods region on Tuesday.

Otherwise, the heat and humidity continues...continue to exercise
heat safety by avoiding strenuous activity during the afternoon
hours, staying hydrated, and LOOK BEFORE YOU LOCK!

Adams

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1205 PM CDT Fri May 16 2025

MVFR CIGS should scatter & lift over the next hour, ushering in
VFR conditions throughout the rest of the daytime. Gusty south
winds continue this afternoon, easing and becoming light this
evening. MVFR CIGS should slowly fill in from the coast during the
late afternoon/tonight, with IFR CIGS looking more feasible
during the early morning hours of Saturday (compared to this
morning), mostly in areas south of I-10. Isolated patchy fog will
be possible as well during the pre-dawn hours. CIGS/Fog will
scatter, lift and clear during the mid to late morning hours as
gusty winds resume.

03

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 255 AM CDT Fri May 16 2025

Southeast winds are expected to prevail through the period as a
surface high remains parked over the Gulf. Light to moderate onshore
winds will prevail at least through next Wednesday. Winds and seas
could reach advisory levels at times early next week. Overall, dry
and warm weather will prevail within the next 7 days.

Beach and Swimming Conditions: Above average water levels are
expected, especially during the high tide cycles. This could result
in isolated/minor coastal flooding due to elevated tides through
early this evening. The risk of rip currents also continues along
all Gulf-facing beaches and will likely persist into the weekend.

Adams

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 255 AM CDT Fri May 16 2025

With multiple days of near record to record breaking heat
possible going into early next week, here`s a look at the daily
high temperature records through Tuesday (May 20th).

May 16th High Temperature Records
---------------------------------
- College Station: 95F (2003)
- Houston/IAH: 94F (2022)
- Houston/Hobby: 94F (2022)
- Palacios: 88F (2010)
- Galveston: 90F (2022)

May 17th High Temperature Records
---------------------------------
- College Station: 96F (1925)
- Houston/IAH: 96F (2018)
- Houston/Hobby: 94F (2018)
- Palacios: 93F (2003)
- Galveston: 90F (2020)

May 18th High Temperature Records
---------------------------------
- College Station: 98F (2022)
- Houston/IAH: 95F (2022)
- Houston/Hobby: 94F (2022)
- Palacios: 89F (2022)
- Galveston: 90F (2022)

May 19th High Temperature Records
---------------------------------
- College Station: 94F (2022)
- Houston/IAH: 95F (2003)
- Houston/Hobby: 94F (2008)
- Palacios: 89F (2024)
- Galveston: 90F (2022)

May 20th High Temperature Records
---------------------------------
- College Station: 96F (2022)
- Houston/IAH: 95F (2020)
- Houston/Hobby: 95F (2008)
- Palacios: 95F (1943)
- Galveston: 91F (2022)

Batiste

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  96  76  96  75 /  10  20  20  20
Houston (IAH)  95  77  95  78 /   0   0   0   0
Galveston (GLS)  87  77  86  78 /   0  10   0   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...High Rip Current Risk until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ436>439.

GM...Small Craft Should Exercise Caution through late tonight for
     GMZ370-375.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Batiste
LONG TERM....Adams
AVIATION...03
MARINE...Adams