299
FXUS64 KHUN 220148
AFDHUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
748 PM CST Fri Nov 21 2025

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 748 PM CST Fri Nov 21 2025

 - Medium chance of showers and thunderstorms tonight, with a very
   low chance of damaging wind.

 - Medium to high chances of showers and thunderstorms Monday
   night into Tuesday night, with a low chance of severe
   thunderstorms.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Tonight)
Issued at 748 PM CST Fri Nov 21 2025

Water vapor imagery shows an upper level wave pushing east through
the mid MS Valley with a pronounced upper jet and dry slot
beneath this from the southern PLains into the OH Valley. The TN
valley resides in a vast warm sector across the region with dew
points well into the 60s. Low pressure was located over southern
MO with a warm front extending east along the OH River valley, and
a trough axis draped southwest from the low into north TX. A lack
of daytime heating due to clouds and rain has kept temperatures
in the middle 60s to lower 70s. A 30-40kt 850 mb jet from
southwest through northeast AL into north GA was producing showers
that are shifting east this evening. Lighter drizzle was
occurring at times within the lower clouds blanketing the area. A
few isolated thunderstorms have developed over southeast MO thus
far. 00Z soundings indicated a low level inversion which is
keeping CAPE values at a minimum over the TN valley. Higher values
are found upstream to our west and southwest, but this will
likely remain above the inversion. Thus, confidence in a damaging
wind threat being realized remains quite low. Latest HRRR runs
have shown a diminishing trend in convection that develops late
this evening into the overnight. Timing has been consistent
though, so will not vary that in our forecast.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Saturday through Monday)
Issued at 748 PM CST Fri Nov 21 2025

As the center of the upper shortwave moves east into the middle
Atlantic states, a trailing trough axis and cold front will drop
southeast through the TN valley Saturday into Saturday evening.
At this time, precipitation is not anticipated. After highs in the
lower to middle 70s, temperatures will dip into the middle to
upper 40s for lows Sunday morning. As a 5h ridge axis shifts east
into the MS Valley on Sunday, surface high pressure will expand
and move into the OH and TN valleys. Highs on Sunday will be in
the 60s with dew points only in the 40s. As the high shifts into
the eastern CONUS on Monday and a stout upper trough enters the
central and southern Plains, southerly flow will develop inducing
warm advection. This will boost high temperatures back into the
upper 60s to lower 70s Monday.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through Friday)
Issued at 748 PM CST Fri Nov 21 2025

As the trough enters the MS Valley late Monday night, a 40-50kt
8h low level jet develops across the lower MS Valley. Dew points
in the 50s to lower 60s advect back into the region with a band or
line of showers and thunderstorms along a cold front. Once again,
weak lapse rates and limited CAPE values are indicated in
ensemble forecasts. Thus, confidence in a severe risk remain low
at this time. The cold front will bring a distinct cool down from
Wednesday into Friday. Highs on Thanksgiving Day and Friday will
only reach the lower to middle 50s (and cooler atop the higher
elevations). Morning lows Friday morning are projected to be in
the upper 20s to around 30.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 404 PM CST Fri Nov 21 2025

Ceilings of 020-025agl (MVFR) will lower below 015agl at KMSL and
below 010agl at KHSV (IFR). A band of SHRA and TSRA will move west
to east across north AL and southern TN from 06-11Z. The wind will
shift to the west behind a trough axis around 15-17Z which will
bring ceilings above 030agl (VFR), with clearing following during
the afternoon hours.

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...17
SHORT TERM....17
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...17