735
FXUS64 KHUN 251701
AFDHUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
1101 AM CST Tue Nov 25 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1018 AM CST Tue Nov 25 2025

-Strong to severe storms will be possible this afternoon for areas
 east of I-65 with a threat for damaging winds and a tornado.

-Cooler conditions will build in behind the cold front and remain
 for the remainder of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Rest of Today and Tonight)
Issued at 1018 AM CST Tue Nov 25 2025

Our weather today will be driven by an approaching surface cold
front prompting high rain chances and some strong to severe storms
this afternoon. Our main forecast challenge for this event will
be evaluating how parameters change throughout the day. Currently,
stratiform rain and overcast conditions, which plagued the area
most of the night, are beginning to both dissipate and push east
out of our area. In its wake, some clearing and subsequent heating
is expected. How much clearing we see will dictate how unstable
we get. The 12Z CAMS that have come in support around 1000 J/KG of
CAPE in NE AL. This could be more or less depending on how long
cloud cover sticks around, increasing/decreasing our severe
threat.

While the amount of CAPE is still somewhat uncertain, the
remaining parameters have become pretty clear. Storms are expected
to fire slightly ahead of the front with the cold front acting as
the main forcing. While the front will move through our entire
area from NW to SE, it will remain weak through its duration in
our area. Associated with the frontal boundary, we look to have
plenty of shear through the afternoon. Based on the available 12Z
models 0-1 KM shear will be around 40 KTs with 0-6 KM shear
between 40-50 KTs. Along and ahead of the front SE surface flow
will support some moisture return with dew points looking to rise
back into the 60s in NE AL by this afternoon. Based on all of
these parameters it appears convective initiation will happen
somewhere in NW AL to north central AL in the late morning. The
shear and boundary orientation show the potential for some
discrete supercells, but storms will likely congeal into multicell
clusters as they move SE. Available CAMs show the best
thermodynamics in NE AL this afternoon (highest CAPE and moisture
overlapping with sufficient shear and forcing). This area will be
most favorable for damaging winds and, with low LCLs forecast, a
tornado or two and hail. A secondary threat will be urban flooding
especially with any clogged drainage from fallen leaves. We will
be keeping an eye on surface observations and satellite trends to
refine our convective initiation timing through the morning.

Storms look to exit the area around 6 PM with rain chances
dropping significantly through the night. With the departure of
the front surface winds will veer to the west with zonal flow
taking precedence both at the surface and aloft. While temps look
to drop into the high 40s to low 50s, cloud cover does look to
remain through most of the night. Paired with winds remaining
elevated, this will dissuade any additional cooling from
radiational cooling.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Wednesday through Friday)
Issued at 1018 AM CST Tue Nov 25 2025

Surface high pressure will build behind the front and remain
dominant through the short term forecast. This will present a
significant pattern change from or recent warm days as NNW flow
along the base of high pressure will usher in much cooler and
drier continental air. As high pressure builds in the northern
Plains, NNW flow will be maintained through the end of the week.
This will significantly drop both temperatures and dew points. Dew
points look to drop through the day on Wednesday from the 50s to
the high 20s. Temperatures will see a similar drop through the day
on Wednesday with our high temps in the low 50s likely being
observed before noon with temps steadily dropping through the
afternoon. The remainder of the week will maintain these cool
temps with highs in the 40s on Thursday and Friday and overnight
lows in the 20s and 30s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Monday)
Issued at 1010 PM CST Mon Nov 24 2025

As we dive into the weekend, dry and warming conditions are forecast
under the influence of sfc high pressure residing over the Southeast
US. High temperatures are forecast to reach the 40s on Friday before
warming into the mid 50s by Sunday. Saturday night, sfc high
pressure begins to shift eastward as an upper level trough begins to
slowly push into the Mississippi Valley, bringing medium chances of
showers on Sunday and Monday. As an upper level closed low pushes
more eastward towards our area, a cold front is forecast to bring
increased shower chances (50-60%) ahead of it Monday evening into
Tuesday. Due to this system being almost a week out, we will have to
continue to monitor trends throughout the week. However, as of now,
looks to be showers with potentially heavy rainfall. If you have
post- holiday travel plans early next week, check back in for
forecast updates as we approach the weekend!

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1100 AM CST Tue Nov 25 2025

Ceilings will improve slightly in the next hour or two before
storms initiate again around noon. Uncertainty remains on where
storms will initiate however we have higher confidence in HSV
seeing storm impacts than MSL. Should a storm move directly over
the radar both ceiling and visibilities will lower to MVFR or
briefly IFR with both convective gusts and lightning possible.
Best timeframe for this will be 19-23Z at HSV. Storms will exit
the area by 0Z, however MVFR ceilings look to remain through most
of the night. Conditions will clear around 12Z tomorrow with gusty
NW winds with gusts up to 20KTS possible throughout the day.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 545 PM CST Mon Nov 24 2025

Moderate Risk for Much Above Normal Precipitation:

The Climate Prediction Center has included all of north Alabama
and southern middle Tennessee in a Moderate risk for Much Above
Normal Precipitation for December 2nd. Precipitation exceeding
1.5 inches is possible during this period.

More information on the CPC U.S. Hazards Outlook can be found at:
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/threats/threats.php

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...RAD
SHORT TERM....RAD
LONG TERM....HC
AVIATION...RAD