081
FXUS63 KICT 102020
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
220 PM CST Tue Feb 10 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Mild temperatures persisting through the next 7 days.

- Chance of rain late Friday night through early Sunday morning.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 212 PM CST Tue Feb 10 2026

Water vapor satellite and RAP 500 mb analysis early this
afternoon shows mainly zonal upper flow across the central
plains with a weak shortwave trough over northern Mexico, and a
more vigorous deep layer trough approaching the California
coastline. The presence of the system over northern Mexico is
leading to some high cloud cover across the area, but any
precipitation will stay well to the south today and Wednesday.
Meanwhile, the system moving over California will be the one to
track over the next few days for potential rain chances this
weekend. Closer to home, a cold front pushed through the area
this morning, and relatively cooler temperatures are filtering
across the region in its wake. Still, afternoon highs today will
be slightly above average for this time of year. Despite a
couple more weak cold fronts sagging across the region between
Wednesday and Friday, temperatures are anticipated to remain on
the mild side for the time of year.

The aforementioned west coast trough will phase with another system
embedded within the subtropical jet stream and beginning progressing
eastward late this week into the weekend. Mid-range global
deterministic and ensemble models continue to disagree about the
progression of this shortwave trough. The ECMWF/EPS continues
to show a weaker, progressive open wave that quickly skates
across the southern plains Friday and Saturday resulting in a
drier solution for the forecast area. It`s possible with this
solution that much of central and southern Kansas don`t much
rain at all! In contrast, the GFS/GEFS continue to show a
stronger closed system that moves slower across the southern
plains which results in a wetter solution of the forecast area.
That being said, trends in the GFS/GEFS over the past couple of
runs are for the system to take a more southerly track. Should
this occur, it would prevent ideal moisture and upper level
diffluence from overspreading Kansas. As a result of the recent
trends in guidance, both rain chances and total QPF from Friday
night through Sunday morning have been decreased. Further
decreases in both rain chances and QPF will likely be needed in
future forecasts should trends continue.

After Sunday, long range models continue to show a strong signal for
potent mid/upper ridging overspreading the central plains. This will
support above average temperatures across the central portions of
the CONUS. Should rainfall be on the lighter side this weekend,
there`s also a fairly good signal for fire weather concerns
heading into the beginning of next week as well.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1117 AM CST Tue Feb 10 2026

VFR conditions are expected through this TAF period.
Breezy/gusty northerly winds will continue through this
afternoon, and diminish to under 10 kts around 00z. Calm winds
will shift to southerly after 12z at all sites except at CNU
where light winds will become easterly.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 113 AM CST Tue Feb 10 2026

THIS AFTERNOON...Stout/gusty north winds in wake of a cold
front moving south may support lower-end VERY HIGH grassland
fire danger areawide. Cooler temperatures though will prevent
Red Flag/critical fire danger.

NEXT MONDAY-TUESDAY...A return to well above average
temperatures looks probable by early next week, along with the
potential for stout/gusty south winds. This combination should
support a return to elevated grassland fire danger.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JC
AVIATION...GC
FIRE WEATHER...ADK/JC