301
FXUS63 KICT 162310
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
510 PM CST Sun Nov 16 2025

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Above normal temperatures continue through Thursday followed
  by near normal temperatures.

- Mostly dry conditions will prevail through Tuesday with shower
  and storm chances returning Wednesday to Friday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 251 PM CST Sun Nov 16 2025

Current water vapor imagery shows weak upper-level ridging
influencing the Northern and Central Plains with an upper low over
the southwestern CONUS. At the surface, high pressure sits over the
Upper and Middle Mississippi Valley.

Tonight into Monday morning, a shortwave trough is progged to move
into the Central Rockies. The chances of drizzle are very low given
the lack of low-level saturation and drier air near the surface.
However, it is possible for low clouds to develop Monday morning in
our area, shifting east as we move into Monday afternoon. The
associated surface low to the aforementioned trough will move into
western Kansas by Monday afternoon, increasing southerly winds in
our area with highs rising into the lower 70s. The surface low
should move into Missouri by Tuesday morning. This will make a small
chance of drizzle possible Monday night into Tuesday in southeast
Kansas as dewpoints rise back into the upper 50s. Higher chances
will remain east of our area where better low-level moisture is
forecast.

Weak upper-level ridging will influence our area Tuesday and
Wednesday with above normal temperatures persisting. Afternoon highs
will continue to be in the 60s to low 70s Tuesday and Wednesday. The
next upper-level trough is progged to move into the Desert Southwest
on Wednesday night. Chances for rainfall will start to increase on
Wednesday night as WAA/moisture advection increases. Dewpoints are
likely to rise into the upper 50s to lower 60s as the ECMWF and GDPS
recent runs indicate. However, there is a notable between these
models compared to the GFS. The GFS keeps richer moisture generally
south of our area with higher dewpoints only in southeast Kansas.
Similarly, instability follows the same trend with ECMWF showing
values of 1500+ J/kg MUCAPE in south-central KS versus the GFS is
roughly around 500 J/kg MUCAPE in southeast KS. Effective wind shear
is generally between 35-45 kts making a severe storm possible if
instability can be obtained. The best chances for widespread
precipitation seem to be Thursday into Friday, as ensembles have the
highest probabilities generally along and south of the turnpike, but
variability in models has lead to low confidence in timing.
Outside of precipitation, near normal temperatures are forecast
to return late this week with highs in the 50s on Friday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 500 PM CST Sun Nov 16 2025

Some impacts to aviation interests are possible over the next 24
hours.

Currently, VFR conditions are dominating the region, and these
conditions should continue into the early morning hours of
Monday. Then, some low ceilings potentially MVFR to IFR in
spots, may impact some TAF sites during the morning hours across
the area. Low clouds should clear the region by midday.

Currently, winds are light and out of the east or southeast this
evening, and will slightly shift to southeast or southerly over
the next 24 hours. Wind speeds and gusts should increase Monday
afternoon with gusts potentially around 20 to 25 knots at times
across the area. Additionally, some marginal low-level wind
shear is possible Monday morning across portions of central
Kansas.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...GC
AVIATION...JC