128
FXUS63 KICT 062346
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
646 PM CDT Thu Aug 6 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated strong to severe storms are possible later this
  afternoon/evening across far southern Kansas.

- More numerous showers and storms expected late tonight into
  Friday morning. A few strong to severe storms capable of
  producing large hail and locally heavy rainfall are possible.

- Dry and hot conditions continue to be expected this weekend
  into next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 158 PM CDT Thu Aug 6 2026

Current water vapor imagery and RAP analysis highlight an upper-
level wave tracking across the Northern Plains as high pressure
aloft continues to the build across the Desert Southeast. At the
surface, a stationary front spans from southeast Kansas into north
central Oklahoma. With this boundary expected to slowly shift
northward, we continue to see the potential for a handful of
thunderstorms developing later this afternoon into the evening
hours across far southern Kansas given increasing convergence
amid weakly capped conditions. While these should remain
isolated in nature and primarily along/south of US-54, plenty of
instability and ample shear may promote strong to severe
activity capable of producing large hail and damaging winds.
However, it remains unclear how much destabilization will be
allowed to take place as ongoing elevated showers and storms
observed across portions of south central Kansas continue early
this afternoon. If these are able to persist into the evening,
chances for activity associated with the surface boundary should
diminish.

Guidance over the past several days has been fairly consistent with
highlighting a mid-level baroclinic zone setting up over the area
later tonight. Showers and storms are forecast to develop
along/ahead of this feature as the LLJ strengthens, and with solid
elevated thermal and wind profiles at/above 700 mb, strong to severe
storms will be possible particularly east of Interstate 135 and
south of Interstate 70. The strongest activity will likely be
initially capable of producing large hail, though as storms cluster
the main threat will shift toward heavy rainfall producing localized
flooding concerns.

Storms will gradually shift southeast throughout the night into
Friday morning with some lingering activity possible across far
southeast Kansas perhaps even into the early afternoon per the
HREF/REFS. Otherwise, dry and hot conditions are forecast to return
to the area beginning Saturday as the upper ridge builds eastward.
Resultant increasing thicknesses will promote high temperatures
ranging from the middle 90s to low 100s throughout the area through
at least Tuesday. Long range guidance is beginning to come into
agreement in a sagging front arriving Tuesday night into Wednesday
as a mid-level shortwave races over the Great Lakes. This may bring
rain chances back into the area and knock temperatures back into the
low to mid 90s by midweek. Stay tuned as additional information
becomes available.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 643 PM CDT Thu Aug 6 2026

Widely scattered showers and storms may develop once again after
05Z in parts of east central KS. This activity may expand
southward through the predawn hours and linger into the morning
on Friday before diminishing from west to east. Some reduced
flight categories are possible under the heavier activity. Light
and variable winds this evening will become southerly as we move
into the day on Friday.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JWK
AVIATION...MWM