461
FXUS63 KICT 020502
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1102 PM CST Mon Dec 1 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Near-normal temperatures return Tuesday before another
  cooldown for Wednesday and Thursday.

- Minimal opportunities for precipitation over the next seven
  days.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 306 PM CST Mon Dec 1 2025

Current water vapor imagery and RAP analysis indicate strong zonal
in the mid/upper levels spanning from the southern Rockies to the
Ohio River Valley as a secondary northwesterly jet max weakens over
Wyoming and Montana. Broad synoptic ascent from upper forcing
resulted in snowfall throughout the forecast area earlier today
and will continue shifting eastward through the afternoon and
evening. Increasing midlevel thicknesses overnight into the
morning hours will allow for the return of warmer temperatures
Tuesday, though light snow cover over the area will likely keep
temperatures Tuesday afternoon in the 40s. Decided to hedge more
toward NBM50th for highs at this time, though these may be too
cool if snow melts quicker than anticipated.

A mid/upper wave diving southeast across Manitoba and Ontario will
shunt a strong cold front through the region late Tuesday into
Wednesday morning. Arctic air and its associated impacts behind this
boundary continue to be expected further to our northeast within the
Upper Mississippi River Basin. However, chilly air along the
southern fringe of the airmass is still anticipated to knock
daytime temperatures largely back into the 30s and low 40s on
Wednesday. Mid-range models also highlight a modestly-tight
surface pressure gradient as the boundary passes through the
area, which will support breezy northerly winds through
Wednesday afternoon. Limited column moisture will largely
preclude chances for precipitation with this frontal passage as
below-normal temperatures (upper 20s and low 30s) hold on
through Thursday.

Seasonably cool to near-normal high temperatures (40s and low 50s)
will return once again to close out the week before the arrival of
another cold front late Saturday night into Sunday. Global models
keep better forcing for wintry precipitation to our north and east
with this system for now, though this will bear watching as
additional information becomes available.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1102 PM CST Mon Dec 1 2025

MVFR ceilings will gradually mix out from west to east as we
move through the overnight hours with VFR prevailing across the
region thereafter. Light westerly winds will prevail tonight
becoming southwesterly on Tuesday at 10-15 mph at times during
the afternoon hours.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JWK
AVIATION...MWM