292
FXUS63 KICT 071950
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
150 PM CST Sun Dec 7 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Seasonal temperatures returning Monday with well above normal
  temperatures expected on Tuesday.

- Mostly dry conditions are expected to continue through the
  work week.

- Colder temperatures are expected to return to the area late in
  the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 149 PM CST Sun Dec 7 2025

Upper-level ridging persists over the western CONUS with an upper-
level shortwave moving into the Middle Mississippi Valley. At the
surface, high pressure has moved into the Upper Mississippi Valley
with Arctic air sitting over much of the Plains and Midwest. In our
area, breezy northerly winds continue in southeast KS with low
clouds over eastern KS. Tonight, northwesterly flow aloft will
return to our area as the upper shortwave moves farther east. The
surface high will shift east on Monday morning, allowing southerly
flow to return to the surface. Seasonal temperatures will return on
Monday afternoon with highs ranging from the lower 40s in southeast
KS to the lower 50s in central KS. A surface low will move across ND
on Tuesday afternoon as a upper-level shortwave moves into the
Northern Plains/Upper Mississippi Valley by late Tuesday night.
Southerly/southwesterly winds at the surface will increase, aiding
in warming temperatures on Tuesday. This combined with warm low-
level westerly winds will lead to highs in the upper 50s in
southeast KS to the lower 60s in central KS on Tuesday afternoon.

The northwesterly flow aloft over the Central Plains will generally
persist through the upcoming work week, resulting in multiple
shortwaves and clipper-like systems. The shortwave over the Upper
Mississippi Valley will shift southeast on Wednesday, deepening the
upper trough over the eastern CONUS. This will usher in cooler
temperatures bringing highs on Wednesday back to seasonal averages.
Highs on Wednesday will generally be in the low 50s across much of
the forecast area. Discrepancies in model guidance start to increase
late in the work week, increasing uncertainty with temperatures. By
Thursday afternoon, the ECMWF shifts the upper low over Ontario and
Quebec farther east whereas the GFS keeps the strong low in place.
On Friday morning, another upper shortwave will move into the Upper
Mississippi Valley. The GFS is notably stronger with this wave
compared to the ECMWF, resulting in it deepening the upper low. The
GFS surges in Arctic air on Friday while the ECMWF brings it in on
Saturday. This model discrepancy yields about a 15-20 degree
temperature difference for Friday across our area. However, as we
move into Saturday, there is better model agreement for below normal
temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1138 AM CST Sun Dec 7 2025

Widespread MVFR ceilings will persist across the region through
at least early evening, as low-level cold advection persists in
wake of a strong cold front. Thinking ceilings will gradually
scatter out from west to east by early evening, although
uncertainty remains high on exactly how fast this clearing
process will occur. Latest model trends suggest low clouds may
hang around a bit longer than expected. Low clouds will hang
around the longest for CNU TAF site, possibly past sunrise
Monday.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...GC
AVIATION...ADK