539
FXUS63 KICT 060004
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
604 PM CST Fri Dec 5 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Near normal temperatures forecast for Saturday followed by
  much colder temperatures on Sunday.

- Seasonably warm temperatures returning early next week with
  highs in the mid to upper 50s on Tuesday.

- Dry conditions are expected to continue through the weekend
  and the upcoming work week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 238 PM CST Fri Dec 5 2025

Current water vapor imagery shows an upper-level shortwave moving
into the Central Rockies with upper ridging over the western CONUS.
At the surface, troughing extends from Minnesota through the Central
Plains into Texas.

Tonight, skies will clear briefly as surface ridging moves into the
area. This will lead to radiational cooling along with weak winds
into Saturday morning, allowing fog to develop in southeast KS with
some areas possible in south-central KS. A surface low will move
into western Nebraska by late Saturday morning, increasing winds in
our area Saturday afternoon as the low moves southeast. This will
mainly impact central KS with sustained winds between 15-20 mph and
gusts up to 30 mph. Slightly warmer temperatures are expected on
Saturday as low-level WAA brings highs into the lower 50s. Any
precipitation chances with this system will stay well north and
northeast of our area. The aforementioned surface low will push
southeast through Nebraska Saturday afternoon into northeast Kansas
by Saturday night. Given southerly surface winds will advect some
moisture into southeast Kansas Saturday night, its possible for
some low clouds and/or fog to develop late Saturday night. This
window would be brief before the surface low pushes a cold
front through our area, bringing colder and drier air by Sunday
morning. Northerly winds will be breezy on Sunday morning,
diminishing into the afternoon as the tighter pressure gradient
moves east/southeast from our area. High temperatures will be
in the mid to upper 30s on Sunday.

Monday and beyond... Northwest flow aloft is forecast to persist in
our area through mid-week as upper-level ridging sits over the
western CONUS. Confidence remains high that dry conditions will
continue through the upcoming work week. A warming trend will start
on Monday as close to normal temperatures return with highs in the
40s on Monday afternoon. Warmer than normal 850 mb temperatures are
forecast for Tuesday, aiding in the return of above normal surface
temperatures. Highs are expected to range from the mid 50s in
southeast KS to the upper 50s in central and south-central KS on
Tuesday, which is about 10-15 degrees above normal. Given model
discrepancy after Tuesday, uncertainty increases on
temperatures. The ECMWF continues to trend notably cooler than
the GFS especially for Wednesday but these trends will be
monitored as we move closer.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 529 PM CST Fri Dec 5 2025

Light and variable winds are expected overnight and into early
Saturday morning. Winds are expected to become southerly between
09-15Z and then increase with gusts between 20-25 knots between
16-19Z. Winds will diminish just beyond the forecast period.

After about 10Z, fog/mist looks likely to develop across
southeast Kansas, mainly impacting CNU. Low ceilings and reduced
visibility will lead to IFR conditions through about 15Z. Some
lower clouds and mist could work it`s way far enough west to
bring some impacts to ICT, but guidance continues to keep the
greatest impacts east of I-135.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...GC
AVIATION...AMD