445
FXUS63 KICT 190808
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
308 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Lingering spotty showers/thunderstorms this morning, but
  severe weather unlikely. Hit-or-miss shower/storm chances
  continue tonight over southeast, but severe weather once
  again unlikely.

- Below average temperatures Tuesday through Thursday, warming
  trend Friday and beyond.

- Periodic off-and-on showers/thunderstorms Wednesday evening
  through the weekend, but especially Wednesday night through
  Friday night. Widespread severe weather unlikely.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 303 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026

RAIN/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES:

PREDAWN HOURS--THIS MORNING...Line of thunderstorms continues to
advance east-southeast, and will exit far southeast KS before
sunrise. While isolated pockets of 50-60 mph winds remain possible,
widespread severe weather is no longer expected.

Further west-northwest in back of this line of storms over portions
of central, eastern, and southern Kansas, persistent weak to modest
lift in the vicinity of the 850-700mb trough/moist axis should
support spotty hit-or-miss showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms
through this morning. This activity will likely not be widespread,
and marginal instability will prevent strong or severe storms or
heavy rain.

TONIGHT--EARLY TUESDAY...Should see isolated to scattered showers
and perhaps a few thunderstorms tonight through early Tuesday over
far southeast KS, underneath the right entrance region of the upper
jet, and in vicinity of the persistent 850-700mb trough/moist axis.
Marginal instability will prevent strong/severe storms or
widespread heavy rainfall.

WEDNESDAY EVENING--WEEKEND...A train of shortwaves traversing Mid-
America will support periodic on-and-off shower/thunderstorm chances
Wednesday evening through the weekend, but probably most widespread
Wednesday night through Friday night. While a few strong storms and
pockets of heavy rainfall are possible, marginal instability
combined with relatively weak shear and forcing should preclude
widespread chances for severe weather and heavy rainfall, although
any rainfall will be beneficial given the steadily worsening drought
conditions the past month or two.

TEMPERATURES:

Below average temperatures are likely today through Thursday, as
Canadian high pressure exerts its influence on Mid-America, along
with periodic cloud cover and precipitation. Daytime highs mostly in
the 60s are expected, with overnight lows in the 40s and 50s. As we
head into Friday and beyond, a warming trend back to above average
temperatures is expected, as heights/thickness gradually increase
over the Heartland. Widespread daytime highs in the 80s are probable
by Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1231 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026

A broken line of thunderstorms will continue marching east-
southeast across southeast KS overnight, exiting far southeast
KS by around 09z. The strongest activity will be capable of
quarter size hail, 65 mph winds, frequent lightning, and heavy
rainfall. Lingering instability and lift may support additional
hit-or-miss shower/thunderstorm development in back of this
line further west-northwest across portions of central and
eastern KS through the predawn hours, but confidence is low and
coverage should be fairly spotty. These spotty hit-or-miss
showers/thunderstorms could linger over southeast KS through
about midday.

Otherwise, mostly MVFR ceilings (with localized IFR ceilings)
will persist across the region overnight, gradually turning VFR
from west to east during the day Tuesday.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...ADK
AVIATION...ADK