244
FXUS63 KMPX 280456
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1156 PM CDT Mon Jul 27 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Heat continues through Wednesday, but dew points in the 60s
  should make it a little more tolerable than the past few
  days.

- Rounds of elevated wildfire smoke from the Pacific Northwest
  are expected throughout the week, but chances for surface
  smoke look low.

- Precip chances increase late Wednesday into Friday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 145 PM CDT Mon Jul 27 2026

The cold front has moved through, allowing for some relief from the
oppressive Tds we saw early this morning. Northwesterly flow
has brought elevated wildfire smoke back in from the Pacific
Northwest. This will continue to be the case throughout at least
the first half of the week. Models indicate that the majority
of this smoke will remain elevated, but surface smoke isn`t out
of the question for far western Minnesota. Surface wise today,
temperatures have once again reached 95 or better early this
afternoon across southeastern Minnesota and western Wisconsin
where a Heat Advisory remains in effect through this evening.
High temperatures will continue to run a few degrees above
normal in the upper 80s/low 90s with a few low chances of spotty
afternoon showers and storms. PoPs may need to be increased
Tuesday and Wednesday afternoon, but for now any impacts look
minimal. NBM did introduce some 15-20% PoPs for Wednesday, which
appears reasonable.

We don`t see any widespread/organized precip chances until Thursday.
A trough moving along the top of the ridge centered over the
southern Rockies looks to dig southward across the Dakotas/Minnesota
before potentially evolving into a cutoff low late in the week.
Widespread rainfall and thunderstorms are expected late Thursday
through Friday. With PWATs increasing to 1.6 to 1.8", we would
expect these to hopefully bring the region some much needed precip.
QPF totals range from a quarter inch for central Minnesota to an
inch or better to the south. This system looks to meander around the
western Ohio River Valley into the weekend, which would allow our
western Wisconsin counties to see continued low shower chances into
the weekend. Following the bulk of the rainfall Friday, temperatures
do fall back into the mid 80s, but this looks to be shortlived once
again with 90s possible early next week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1141 PM CDT Mon Jul 27 2026

No significant weather for all sites. Winds will be at or below
5 kts for the majority of the period, becoming mostly S/SE by
Tuesday afternoon. Mid-high level clouds stream across the
region, with some fair weather cu possible during the day.

KMSP...No additional concerns.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
WED...VFR, slight chc -TSRA/MVFR pm. Wind SW 5kts.
THU...VFR, chc -TSRA/MVFR pm. Wind SW 5kts.
FRI...MVFR/-SHRA, chc -TSRA early. Wind SE to NE 5kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Dye
AVIATION...BED