330
FXUS63 KMPX 020018
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
618 PM CST Sun Mar 1 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- An impressive warming trend will take place this week through
  next weekend. Highs in the 50s are likely by Tuesday with 60s
  possible Thursday and Sunday.

- A 20-40 percent chance of rain/snow across southern Minnesota
  Monday night, then widespread rain likely Friday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 250 PM CST Sun Mar 1 2026

High pressure continues to build southeast into the Great Lakes
region today. Winds are beginning to turn southerly this
afternoon as the center of the high reaches Lake Huron. Aside
from a band of clouds across southern Minnesota, it`s been a
rather sunny day for most. The high will shift east to New
England Monday and strengthening return flow will bring a
warming trend through midweek. A low pressure system will track
east across the central Plains to the mid Mississippi Valley
Monday night. Chances for rain and snow continue across much of
the region, with the highest probabilities across southern MN.
Temperatures in the boundary layer will be just on the warm side
of freezing, so expecting mostly rain. Any snow that falls is
not likely to accumulate. Another system could glance us to the
southeast Tuesday night and early Wednesday, bringing the next
very low chance of rain and snow to far southern MN.
Temperatures will warm into the low to mid 40s Monday, lower 50s
Tuesday, and mid 50s Wednesday.

The pattern undergoes a more interesting transformation mid to
late week as a subtropical ridge builds and parks itself across
the southeastern U.S. and a deep trough develops across the
Rockies. Southwest flow will prevail across the central U.S. and
several disturbances could eject northeast from the western
trough. The first disturbance will eject northeast across the
Plains Thursday night reaching the Upper Midwest Friday.
Temperatures ahead of it will continue warming and many could
experience the first 60 of the season Thursday. This first
system could shear itself out a bit as the trough continues to
dig into the southwest. It also doesn`t appear it will have good
cold air to work with, so snow probs remain low. Widespread rain
and mild temperatures should accompany the late week system. As
that system moves out, mild Pacific air will remain in place
and temperatures should rebound again next weekend. Highs in the
upper 50s to low 60s appear quite possible again next Sunday.

There remains some potential for a larger system early next
week, but a lot of spread remains and is tied to how the closed
off upper low in northwestern Mexico gets picked up by another
developing trough over the Rockies. That likely won`t be known
for several more days, but it bears watching.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 552 PM CST Sun Mar 1 2026

VFR conditions throughout with light southerly winds and mid-
level clouds. On Monday, clouds will thicken and lower as
moisture moves up from the south.

For now, went with SCT025 at KMKT, but could see some MVFR
clouds toward the end of the TAF period, along with some light
drizzle of rain at the southern TAF sites like KMKT, KRWF, KMSP,
and KEAU.

KMSP...
VFR conditions with light south/southeast winds and mid level
clouds. On Monday, winds will become more southerly, and should
see clouds lower to around 4-5Kft. If ceilings trend lower,
may have to introduce MVFR ceilings and some drizzle or light
snow after 00Z.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
TUE...MVFR. Wind S 5 kts.
WED...VFR. Wind SE 5-10 kts.
THU...VFR. Wind SE 5-10 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Borghoff
AVIATION...JRB