723
FXUS63 KMPX 051951
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
251 PM CDT Tue Aug 5 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered showers and storms possible in western MN this
afternoon, followed by a more likely round area-wide tonight. A few
strong storms could produce gusty winds and large hail.

- Heat and humidity increase gradually this week.

- More rain and storms expected Friday into Saturday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 241 PM CDT Tue Aug 5 2025

Satellite imagery this afternoon shows a widespread cumulus field
developing along a fairly sharp gradient with western MN clear due
to some approaching convection with eastern MN and western WI seeing
the cu. There is a hint of an outflow boundary out ahead of the
convection which is moving through Fargo Moorhead around 230pm,
which has been just enough to prevent the cu development east of the
storms. High resolution guidance has been wishy washy on keeping
these storms around, with most of the guidance so far today showing
a gradual weakening trend with a trajectory favoring the far
northern edge of the MPX CWA, favoring an east-northeasterly path
which would largely keep it clear of our area. Isolated showers and
some rumbles of thunder are possible generally west of St. Cloud
through around 5-6pm, at which point this line should be far enough
north to be out of the area.

Another convective complex is expected to develop along a line from
central SoDak to eastern NoDak later this evening, eventually
spreading eastwards and affecting our area overnight. The 18z HRRR
shows a swath of development eventually becoming a linear system or
MCS by 02-04z, moving into western MN around 04-05z. Guidance favors
a weakening trend throughout the night with relatively weak forcing
along a weak low level jet and subtle shortwave, with scattered
showers and storms moving into the Twin Cities metro between 08-10z.
The stronger segment of the line is expected to follow the gradient
of instability which will eventually lead to redevelopment favoring
the southern edge of the line and pushing it into Iowa around
sunrise with lingering weaker showers and storms for us. Lingering
showers are possible throughout the day tomorrow, however coverage
will be isolated and QPF relatively low as a result, with only a few
localized areas seeing more than a few hundredths of new rainfall.

A shortwave ridge builds into the region behind the departing
showers on Thursday with increasing 850mb temperatures west-
southwest of the region which will eventually fuel our next chances
for showers and storms arriving Friday evening/night into Saturday.
A developing low pressure system underneath a potential occluded
trough will enter the northern plains via the northern CONUS Rockies
by 18z Friday, as the surface low strengthens underneath. A surge of
warmer temperatures are expected in the lower levels and at ground
level with a strong low level jet ahead of the main trough axis,
with highs reaching the mid to upper 80s with some low 90s possible
Friday, with temps moderating a bit once rain and storms overspread
the area into Saturday. The cold front associated with this system
is  expected to contain the best overall dynamics for storms,
expected to move through the area on Saturday. Global guidance and
ensembles keep sporadic showers and storms around through the
weekend and into early next week with temperatures remaining on the
warm side as the cold front will not fully push out the warmer
airmass, especially aloft. As we head into the middle of the month,
there appears to be a sign for a larger scale ridge to build into
the area which would mean a relatively dry period, however there is
not enough confidence to say we will remain completely dry
throughout.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1205 PM CDT Tue Aug 5 2025

Most sites stay at VFR through the period, with a few chances
for showers and storms tonight into tomorrow afternoon. The
first comes from a decaying line of convection from the Dakotas
in western MN tonight. Forcing should dampen as it travels east
through MN, so have only kept mention of TSRA at AXN/RWF for
now. There is a chance it could produce isolated lightning as
far east as STC/MKT, but that looks unlikely at this time.
Scattered thunderstorms will likely redevelop tomorrow afternoon
along the boundary as it continues eastward. It looks most
likely that AXN/RWF will have enough time to destabilize, but
storms could travel eastward through the day. TAFs will be
adjusted as confidence increases.

KMSP...TSRA chances look quite low with the line of storms
moving in from the west tonight. In fact, the impacts from any
leftover SHRA should be limited as well. The better chance for
storms will likely come tomorrow afternoon into the evening as
an area of scattered storms spreads east through the day.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
WED PM...VFR. Chc MVFR/-TSRA. Wind S 10-15 kts.
THU...VFR. Chc MVFR/-TSRA early. Wind S 5-10 kts.
FRI...VFR. Chc MVFR/-TSRA late. Wind S 10-15 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...TDH
AVIATION...BED