411
FXUS64 KOHX 130454
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
1154 PM CDT Sun Oct 12 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1148 PM CDT Sun Oct 12 2025

- Rain chances return to the forecast this weekend.

- Above normal temperatures through the end of the week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1148 PM CDT Sun Oct 12 2025

Calm conditions out there tonight as satellite imagery shows no
clouds over Middle TN. This is thanks to our high pressure over
the region. Dewpoints are a little higher tonight than Saturday,
so there will be a better chance for fog to develop early Monday
morning. Winds are calm across the mid state, with dewpoint
depressions between 3-8 degrees. Once we become more saturated
through the night, fog should start to form. There could be some
patchy areas of dense fog for your Monday morning commute, so for
those who start their commute early, take extra caution while
driving through any fog.

Otherwise, another pleasant day is on tap for today. Winds remain
light and out of the N. Temperatures warm back into the upper 70s
to low 80s. Tuesday brings much of the same as our fall like
weather sticks around. That said, we are running a few degrees
above normal for this time of year. For reference, Nashville BNA`s
normal high temperature for this time of year is 75 degrees. With
BNA seeing around 80 degrees these past few days, that puts us
around 5 degrees above normal.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through next Monday)
Issued at 1148 PM CDT Sun Oct 12 2025

Temperatures climb into the mid 80s by the mid-week as our axis of
high pressure moves directly overhead. Otherwise, dry weather
remains, making for quiet weather through the end of the week.
Come this weekend, we are still watching for a mid-level low and
associated trough to swing through the Ohio River Valley. This
will bring rain chances back to the forecast through the weekend.
Today`s model runs have shifted the trough a little further north
and east from previous runs, so it is hard to say for certain what
impacts this will bring to Middle TN at this time. That said, the
pattern is favorable for decent rainfall chances Saturday night
into Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1148 PM CDT Sun Oct 12 2025

Patchy shallow fog will impact all terminals except BNA. Tempo
groups have been included for IFR to MVFR vsbys 09Z-13Z.
Otherwise, scattered mid and high clouds will develop daytime
Monday with NNE winds 5 to 8KT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      52  80  54  81 /   0   0   0   0
Clarksville    49  80  53  81 /   0   0   0   0
Crossville     46  72  49  73 /   0   0   0   0
Columbia       48  79  52  80 /   0   0   0   0
Cookeville     47  74  50  75 /   0   0   0   0
Jamestown      47  72  48  73 /   0   0   0   0
Lawrenceburg   46  77  51  79 /   0   0   0   0
Murfreesboro   47  78  51  80 /   0   0   0   0
Waverly        50  78  53  80 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Cravens
LONG TERM....Cravens
AVIATION.....13