159
FXUS64 KOHX 090501
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
1101 PM CST Sat Nov 8 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1053 PM CST Sat Nov 8 2025

- High probability for a widespread hard freeze Sunday and Monday
  nights.

- Low to medium chance (30-50%) for light snow accumulation
  across the Plateau Sunday evening through early Monday morning.

- Temperatures rebound near normal values by Wednesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Monday Night)
Issued at 1025 PM CST Sat Nov 8 2025

Big changes are on the way starting with a cold front that will
move across Mid TN overnight accompanied by a narrow band of
showers. The front will be followed by a blustery and colder
Sunday. High temperatures will likely occur around daybreak with
falling or steady temps through the day. With actual temps in the
40s much of the day, gusty northwest winds up to 25 mph at times
will drop wind chills into the 30s.

The big changes are associated with a deep, cold trough digging
rapidly across the eastern states. A spoke of energy diving
around the trough will come in Sunday afternoon and evening
bringing a few showers, and by the end of the day, some snow
flurries as well. During the evening, the disturbance combined
with upslope flow will create snow showers with potential light
accumulations on the Plateau. Most of the Upper Cumberland will
have less than one half inch, but favored high elevations from
Jamestown to Monterey could have one half to 1 inch of snow Sunday
evening through early Monday morning. No major travel problems are
expected, but a few slick spots could occur on elevated surfaces
where the snow accumulates.

But, the main story is the blast of cold air with temperatures
plunging down into the low to mid 20s by daybreak Monday. During
the daytime Monday, temperatures will warm only into the 30s to
maybe around 40 with continued blustery northwest winds making it
feel colder.

As the core of upper level low pressure moves overhead on Monday,
we will keep snow shower chances for the Plateau and scattered
sprinkles/flurries elsewhere. Cycles of melting and new snow
showers will limit accumulations for the Plateau with most areas
staying at less than half an inch. Elsewhere, no accumulations are
expected.

Monday night will be the coldest period as skies clear and winds
settle. Lows will be in the teens to lower 20s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through next Sunday)
Issued at 1025 PM CST Sat Nov 8 2025

As quickly as the cold snap arrived, the upper trough will move
out Tuesday and low level winds will flip to southerly. This will
set the stage for a quick temperature rebound, with near-normal
readings returning by Wednesday. Dry and mild conditions are
expected late week with highs climbing back into the 60s and 70s.
The next chance for rain moves in next Sunday and Monday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1053 PM CST Sat Nov 8 2025

A disturbance aloft will be passing by the region tonight which
will feature a band of showers moving quickly west to east ahead
of a strong cold front. FROPA will bring gusty NW winds through
the period along with MVFR cigs (gusts 20-25 kts). IFR cigs are
forecast at CSV through the period. An upper low will lead to
occasional light rain or snow flurries at the end of the period
with the most persistent effects at CSV. I`ve got a PROB30 in for
BNA for -RASN, but expect no flight impacts other than a few
flakes.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      47  49  27  40 /  40  10  10  10
Clarksville    43  47  25  40 /  40  20  10  10
Crossville     47  50  20  30 /  40  40  60  40
Columbia       45  48  25  40 /  30  20  10  10
Cookeville     46  50  23  33 /  40  50  40  30
Jamestown      47  49  22  31 /  40  60  80  60
Lawrenceburg   46  49  24  38 /  20  20  10  10
Murfreesboro   46  49  26  38 /  40  20  20  10
Waverly        40  46  24  39 /  40  20  10  10

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM....13
AVIATION.....Sizemore