209
FXUS64 KOHX 201733
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
1133 AM CST Thu Nov 20 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1128 AM CST Thu Nov 20 2025

- Periods of showers and general thunderstorms through late
  Saturday morning.

- Another round of showers and general thunderstorms Monday
  afternoon through late Tuesday.

- Mild temperatures lasting into early next week, then turning
  sharply colder by Thanksgiving.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Friday)
Issued at 1028 AM CST Thu Nov 20 2025

A boundary is lifting north through Middle TN this afternoon
providing our first round of showers and thunderstorms. Satellite
is picking up on some lightning activity but not much overall. Our
next round of showers and thunderstorms are crossing the TN River
and will progress east through the afternoon and evening. Latest
ACARS show that instability is lacking while lapse rates remain
below 6 C/km, so not expecting any strong storms. Light showers
linger tonight before another round of showers and thunderstorms
move through Friday. The set up looks similar so only expecting
general thunderstorms. Temperatures remain mild, climbing into the
low 70s Friday. Overall, just a cloudy and rainy two days here
before a break in the rain for the weekend.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday Night through next Thursday)
Issued at 1028 AM CST Thu Nov 20 2025

Some showers linger Saturday morning, but overall, mostly dry
weather develops over the weekend as an area of surface high
pressure develops. Temperatures remain mild in the 60s, but cooler
overnight lows in the 40s. A surface low then lifts out of TX and
passes to our NW through mid next week. This brings another front
through Middle TN Monday and Tuesday. Once again, not see much of
a concern for any severe weather, with better dynamics to our
south. At this time thinking just another round of showers and
general thunderstorms with a low chance for any strong to severe
thunderstorms. An associated cold front then surges through
Wednesday, ushering in much colder temperatures for the
Thanksgiving holiday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1130 AM CST Thu Nov 20 2025

A weak low pressure system is in the region today which is causing
a variety of flight impacts across Middle TN. TAFs reflect
LIFR/IFR cigs through much of the period with waves of SHRA and
associated vis reductions. Most convection and IFR cig/vis is
forecast through ~02z, with fading coverage thereafter which makes
way for LIFR cigs again overnight. Winds remain E to S through
the period at less than 10 kts. Some hope for cigs improving to
MVFR tomorrow morning, but additional SHRA potential is forecast.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      67  60  74  59 /  90  90  60  90
Clarksville    65  59  73  55 /  90  90  90  70
Crossville     67  57  68  57 /  70  90  60  90
Columbia       72  61  74  60 /  90  80  60  90
Cookeville     67  59  70  57 /  80  90  60 100
Jamestown      67  57  69  56 /  70  90  70  90
Lawrenceburg   73  60  72  60 /  90  70  50  90
Murfreesboro   70  61  73  60 /  90  90  60 100
Waverly        65  59  72  56 /  90  90  70  70

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Cravens
LONG TERM....Cravens
AVIATION.....Sizemore