845
FXUS64 KOHX 140402
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
1102 PM CDT Fri Jun 13 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1022 PM CDT Fri Jun 13 2025

- Humid with medium to high chances for showers and thunderstorms
  each day through the weekend. Greatest rain chances each
  afternoon and early evening.

- Generally low risk for severe weather, but some of the storms
  will contain torrential downpours, frequent lightning, and gusty
  winds.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Sunday Night)
Issued at 1022 PM CDT Fri Jun 13 2025

An upper-level trough continues to slowly track through the area
with this feature currently centered near SE MO and the
Mississippi River. This trough has kept scattered thunderstorms in
the area all day, and radar shows a decaying line of showers/storms
currently making their way through west TN. Do expect these
storms to continue to weaken as they approach the TN River, but
still won`t rule out isolated showers/storms overnight.

As the trough sticks around through the weekend, this will keep
daily scattered thunderstorms both Saturday and Sunday. Coverage
will be dirunally-driven meaning that greatest coverage is
expected during the afternoon and evening hours. There will be
plenty of instability with CAPE values around 1500 J/kg, but shear
and lapse rates will be lacking which keeps our severe weather
threat low. PWATs will be high though at around 1.75 to 2 inches.
So while organized severe weather is not expected either Saturday
or Sunday, the typical thunderstorm hazards of heavy rain,
frequent lightning, and gusty winds are all possible.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through next Saturday)
Issued at 1022 PM CDT Fri Jun 13 2025

A break from this activity doesn`t look like it comes anytime soon
as a troughing pattern and plenty of moisture continues into next
week which keeps daily rounds of thunderstorms in the forecast
through at least Friday. Storms continue to be dirunally-driven
with highest storm chances each afternoon and evening. Still not
seeing any obvious signs for organized severe weather with weak
wind shear and poor lapse rates. But any pulse thunderstorm any
day will be capable of heavy rain, frequent lightning, and gusty
winds. A break from the persistent rain chances perhaps comes next
weekend as models are showing a strong ridge building over the
eastern US.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 629 PM CDT Fri Jun 13 2025

Most of the ongoing activity is exiting off to our east. CSV and
SRB will experience rain through the next hour or two. As we move
into the overnight hours, the majority of the night looks to be
mostly dry. MVFR clouds will build in near 12Z along with a wind
shift out of the SSW between 6 to 9 kts with the approach of the
upper low. VFR thresholds look to return late morning as pop up
thunderstorm activity returns. Due to low confidence in the exact
location of thunderstorm development, PROB30 groups are in the taf
at each terminal during the late morning and afternoon hours
tomorrow.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      70  84  71  87 /  60  80  40  60
Clarksville    70  82  70  85 /  50  80  30  20
Crossville     65  80  66  80 /  70  90  70  70
Columbia       69  83  69  87 /  60  80  40  50
Cookeville     67  80  67  81 /  70  90  60  80
Jamestown      65  80  66  80 /  70  90  60  90
Lawrenceburg   68  82  69  86 /  60  80  50  60
Murfreesboro   69  85  69  87 /  50  80  40  60
Waverly        68  81  68  85 /  60  80  30  10

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Clements
LONG TERM....Clements
AVIATION.....Baggett