370
FXUS65 KPUB 142023
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
223 PM MDT Mon Jul 14 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Daily afternoon and evening showers and storms are expected
through the long term period, with the greatest probabilities  over
the mountains for Tuesday, then all areas for Wednesday and onward.

- Hottest day of the week is Tuesday with high temperatures over the
lower Arkansas River Valley in 100s

- Cold front to cool temperatures briefly for Thursday

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 222 PM MDT Mon Jul 14 2025

Upper level high pressure sits to the southwest of Colorado and
short wave trough over the Pacific northwest begins to make its way
to the central portion of the United States. The main impacts for
the short term forecast are showers and thunderstorms primarily over
the mountains with some of the storms pushing over the foothills and
plains only to dissipate quickly as they progress to the east. The
main risks over the mountains will be gusty winds of up to 40 MPH
and a low chance for flash flooding, but the storms would need to
remain stationary for that to happen. Over the eastern plains, some
small thunderstorms look to form along a few instability axes over
Baca County and near Crowley Counties tomorrow from 3pm-7pm. Main
risks with those storms will be gusty outflow winds with gusts up to
40MPH.

Tomorrow is going to be our hottest day in the week with high
temperatures above 100F over the lower Arkansas River Valley and mid
to upper 90s over the rest of the plains. This isn`t quite hot
enough for a Heat Advisory, so no product issuance there. The HRRR
smoke model does put pockets of smoke over the western half of the
CWA, but that is very patchy and not too dense, so no major concerns
for vulnerable populations.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 302 AM MDT Mon Jul 14 2025

Other than a slight delay on an incoming cold front midweek, the
general weather pattern through the extended period has not changed
much. There will be a daily shot of afternoon and evening
convection, with the best chance across the higher terrain for
Tuesday. Frontal passage will temporarily cool at least the eastern
plains midweek, then precipitation chances start to ramp up for the
upcoming weekend.

Wednesday and Thursday...The upper low over the Pacific NW on Tue
will weaken and move east across the Rockies overnight into early
Wed morning as an open wave. That will force a cold front south into
CO Wed morning, with the front pushing across the Palmer Divide and
into the southeast plains by midday. Due to this later expected
frontal passage, high temps on Wed are forecast to drop down to
right around normal levels, then eventually cool to below normal for
Thu. The resultant easterly upslope surface flow will aid in
moisture advection, and scattered to likely convection is
anticipated for all areas by Wed late afternoon and carry over
through Thu. Look for highs in the 80s for the high valleys both
days, while the plains will warm into the mid 80s to mid 90s for
Wed, then the 80s on Thu.

Friday through Sunday...The upper pattern is still sporting a
monsoon-like look through the upcoming weekend, with an upper high
over the Gulf and an upper low sitting over the CA Baja. Convection
potential remains elevated and widespread, with near normal
temperatures all three days. Moore

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1141 AM MDT Mon Jul 14 2025

Generally VFR conditions with diurnal wind regimes expected
at COS, PUB and ALS over the next 24 hours. Flow aloft has
transitioned to more westerly, leading to potential storms
moving off the higher terrain and across the terminals. Most
likely timeframe for storms affecting the terminals is 21Z Mon
through 02Z Tues, with gusty outflow winds up to 40kts and
lightning the main threats, along with brief locally heavy
rain.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SKELLY
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...MW