Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Reno, NV
Issued by NWS Reno, NV
526 FXUS65 KREV 092059 AFDREV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Reno NV 159 PM PDT Thu Oct 9 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... * Breezy to gusty winds through Friday with potential recreation, aviation, and localized fire weather impacts. * A cold front Saturday morning will bring cooler temperatures and low chances for light rain/mountain snow showers this weekend. * Another storm arrives early next week keeping the cold temperatures, but with better chances of rain and mountain snow. && .DISCUSSION... Seasonable temperatures combined with dry and breezy conditions will prevail through Friday before the pattern shifts to a cooler and potentially wetter pattern into early next week. This afternoon, S-SW wind gusts of 20-30 mph will be most widespread with localized stronger gusts of 35-40 mph favored along windprone stretches of US-395 and US-95 in Mono and Mineral counties. Localized elevated fire weather concerns are possible in receptive fine fuels due to gusty conditions and RH in the lower teens to upper single digit range. Friday is looking to provide more widespread gusty conditions with most areas seeing gusts of 30-35 mph with windprone areas reaching 40 mph. While humidity will be trending 5-10% higher on Friday, areas across southern Mono and Mineral counties could still face localized areas of enhanced fire weather conditions. Winds could also result in choppy and hazardous boating conditions across area lakes, cross wind impacts for high profile vehicles, and areas of blowing dust downwind of dry lake beds/playa areas. A cold front will track across the region Friday night into Saturday morning bringing 25-50% chance of light showers producing a few hundredths of precipitation from the Tahoe Basin into NE California and around 10-20% chances across far W.NV. A few spotty showers will persist through the afternoon with otherwise temperatures running 10-15 degrees cooler. These colder conditions will extend into Saturday night where temperatures across western Nevada could dip below the freezing mark. While the Reno-Sparks area will only see about a 5% likelihood of below freezing temperatures, the Carson Valley will see over a 70% chance by Sunday morning. By early next week, attention then turns to a closed low dropping south from the Pacific Northwest. While the system may provide chances for wetting rains and mountain snow accumulation, there is high uncertainty in the lows trajectory. About 40% of ensemble guidance digs this low southwest leaving little precipitation across the Sierra while others provide a higher likelihood. This track uncertainty as a result will leave low confidence in expected precipitation totals and timing, but nonetheless periods of rain and mountain snow in the Monday-Tuesday timeframe is a plausible scenario. Be sure to keep tabs of the forecast if you have travel plans during this timeframe. Fuentes && .AVIATION... VFR conditions continue through Friday with increasing S-SW winds this afternoon and Friday. Expect gusts up to 30 knots this afternoon and up to about 35 knots on Friday. Expect areas of LLWS and turbulence for all terminals through Friday. A cold front will move through early Saturday morning with 10-20% chances for light and isolated showers for Tahoe and W.Nevada terminals, but with localized LLWS along the cold front general between 14-17z. Fuentes && .REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories... NV...Lake Wind Advisory from 2 PM to 8 PM PDT Friday NVZ002-004. CA...Lake Wind Advisory from 2 PM to 8 PM PDT Friday CAZ072. && $$