172
FXUS64 KTSA 041726
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1126 AM CST Thu Dec 4 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1121 AM CST Thu Dec 4 2025

 - Chilly through tonight, then warmer Friday and Saturday, with
   another dry cold front Saturday night

 - Another warm up is expected early next week with dry conditions
   persisting

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Through tonight )
Issued at 1121 AM CST Thu Dec 4 2025

The system that brought snow to parts of the area this morning will
exit this afternoon, with any lingering rain showers across
southeast OK ending. Conditions will generally remain cloudy
through this evening, except for northeast OK, where some
clearing is anticipated. With continued cold advection at the
surface, maximum temperatures will mostly remain in the 30s.

Some additional clearing tonight should allow for sub freezing
temperatures across the area, with dry conditions prevailing. There
is some potential for patchy fog if clearing occurs where
precipitation occurred this morning.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tomorrow through Thursday)
Issued at 1121 AM CST Thu Dec 4 2025

The forecast area will remain under the longwave trough Friday and
Saturday, keeping some level of cloudiness in the area, but dry
weather is expected. The cold surface high will be south of the
area Friday, so southerly flow will result in warming temperatures,
with highs close to 50 F for many locations. Southerly flow
continues Saturday, but there is a signal in the guidance for low
clouds to spread over the area, which could keep temperatures
suppressed. Lowered max temperatures a bit to account for this and
introduced patchy fog for southeast OK.

A likely dry cold front will move through later Saturday bringing
another shot of chilly air to the region. It may not be quite as
chilly as the front we just had, so highs will only fall to the
low to mid 40s. The trough axis will shift east early next week
with a warming downslope westerly flow setting up. This should
finally boost temperatures back up above normal readings, with a
few locations potentially approach 60 F. Another cold front will
push through the area next Wednesday or Thursday. Ensemble
guidance strongly suggests this front will be dry as well. It does
not appear to be very cold, and may just knock temperatures down
closer to average.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1121 AM CST Thu Dec 4 2025

Low clouds will gradually erode across E OK and NW AR this
afternoon, with VFR cigs returning to most sites by this evening.
Overnight, redevelopment of low clouds and reduced vsbys are shown
by several models, particularly across SE OK and NW AR. There
remains enough agreement to forecast this scenario, though there is
also at least a low potential for VFR cigs to continue through the
overnight period. Regardless, low clouds are forecast to clear out
by late Friday morning or afternoon with VFR conditions forecast
areawide. Winds remain light through the forecast period,
initially out of the north before shifting to southerly overnight
and into Friday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   25  50  31  52 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   30  50  32  54 /   0   0   0   0
MLC   27  52  32  55 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   22  50  27  52 /   0   0   0   0
FYV   27  48  31  54 /   0   0   0   0
BYV   26  48  31  51 /   0   0   0   0
MKO   27  50  32  52 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   24  48  30  51 /   0   0   0   0
F10   25  51  31  52 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   29  49  33  54 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...06
LONG TERM....06
AVIATION...43