873
FXUS64 KTSA 020447
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1047 PM CST Mon Dec 1 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1047 PM CST Mon Dec 1 2025

 - Cold night tonight with clearing skies

 - Temperatures warm somewhat through Wednesday before another
   potent cold front arrives dropping temperatures back well below
   normal for Thursday.

 - Precipitation chances remain low... some light drizzle or
   freezing drizzle possible Wednesday night and low rain chances
   Thursday near the Red River

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Through Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1047 PM CST Mon Dec 1 2025

Precipitation has exited the area this evening and skies will
begin to gradually clear from west to east with the passage of
the trough axis overnight tonight. Surface high pressure settling
over the region will allow temperatures to drop into the 20s to
upper teens by Tuesday morning. After the cold start, a decent
warm up is expected during the day Tuesday aided by mostly sunny
skies and a return of southerly winds. The surface high quickly
shifts east by Tuesday afternoon, while surface cyclogenesis
commences over eastern New Mexico in advance of the next wave. The
result will be rather gusty southerly winds by afternoon across
eastern Oklahoma, with some gusts of 20 mph possible. Temperatures
look to range from the mid 40s to lower 50s, though the breezy
conditions will likely make it feel cooler. Tuesday night won`t be
as cold, with lows generally in the upper 20s to lower 30s.

Bowlan

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 1047 PM CST Mon Dec 1 2025

Moving into the middle part of the week, the slight warming trend
will continue into Wednesday ahead of another frontal boundary
set to move through the region Wednesday afternoon. This will
bring another shot of cold air to the region. Trends continue to
be drier with this frontal passage as moisture remains pushed well
south of the forecast area. Still, a subtle mid level disturbance
moving across northern Oklahoma Wednesday night could generate
some very light precipitation over the area, though it will have
to overcome relatively dry air both aloft and near the surface.
Forecast soundings show more of a drizzle/freezing drizzle
scenario with the lack of any deeper moisture in the layer.
Chances still appear very low at this point, but will bear
watching as freezing drizzle can cause travel impacts rather
quickly if it occurs.

Thursday will be another cold day with highs in the 30s and breezy
northerly winds. Another wave moving through the area late
Thursday could generate some light rain showers, primarily near
the Red River Thursday into Thursday night. Better chances will
remain south of the forecast area, where better moisture will stay
put through the period. Generally seasonable and dry conditions
will close out the work week and weekend as we remain entrenched
in a northwest flow pattern aloft. Another frontal passage looks
to arrive on Sunday, though not as strong as the two fronts this
week. Any appreciable synoptic lift looks to remain north of the
local region, and thus precipitation chances remain below
mentionable through the rest of the period.

Bowlan

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1047 PM CST Mon Dec 1 2025

Precipitation has ended across the area, with the remaining major
consideration for aviation purposes being timing the improvement in
the extensive MVFR ceilings to clear skies at each site. Satellite
trends indicate improvement at BVO/TUL/RVS/MLC within the first hour
or so of the valid TAF period. Timing for XNA/ROG/FYV/FSM remains
more likely toward 12-13Z. FSM is currently showing a VFR ceiling
but given observations just west of there, it should decrease into
MVFR category once again within the first hour or two of the TAF
period. Wind speeds should remain below 10 kts through the period at
all sites, with northerly winds becoming southerly at most sites by
afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   22  48  31  50 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   25  46  28  55 /   0   0   0   0
MLC   23  50  34  56 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   18  48  27  47 /   0   0   0   0
FYV   20  44  28  50 /  10   0   0   0
BYV   22  43  27  50 /  20   0   0   0
MKO   22  46  30  52 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   20  43  28  47 /  30   0   0   0
F10   22  49  31  53 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   25  46  30  57 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM....04
AVIATION...22