797
FXUS64 KTSA 141553
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1053 AM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025

...New UPDATE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 348 AM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025

  - Rain and thunderstorm chances continue through the weekend,
    with at least a limited potential for severe weather and
    localized flash flooding, especially across eastern Oklahoma.
    Continue to monitor the forecast for updates and additional
    details as they become available.

  - Warming trend and humid conditions going into next week with
    heat indices approaching or potentially exceeding 100 degrees.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1053 AM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025

The initial storm complex is weakening as it moves into northwest
Arkansas... but is likely to make it across Carroll and Madison
Counties.  Locally heavy rain and gusts 30 to 45 mph are the main
concerns.

Thunderstorms have recently increase in and near Creek County as
a push of outflow from the weakening storm upstream found some
instability to work with. Having just form, the storms may have
a chance to run east-southeast into the afternoon... though late
morning is a typical time for weakening.

A few storms will either continue near and south of I-40 or
increase again in the afternoon.

Given the extensive cloud cover from these complexes, have lowered
the highs for today several degrees.  Given it is June, am reluctant
to cut the temperatures back too much at this point.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today)
Issued at 348 AM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025

Elevated convection has developed as expected across north central
Oklahoma into the far northwest corner of our forecast area. This
activity is expected to continue for the next several hours, with
potential additional development to the southeast with time. A
limited severe weather potential will exist with this activity,
and locally heavy rainfall will also occur.

The future evolution of an MCS across western Kansas remains
unclear. It is possible that this activity may continue today and
reintensify by midday with daytime heating as it moves southeast.
Have added/upped pops for the afternoon from the NBM to account
for this possibility. Afternoon high temperatures will generally
range from the mid to upper 80s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tonight through Friday)
Issued at 348 AM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025

A low predictability forecast will continue into early next week
as general troughiness persists just to our east and northwest
flow aloft remains conducive to nightly MCS development upstream
potentially moving southeast into our area during the late night
or morning hours. Afternoon storm potential would then depend on
if/where remnant outflow boundaries setup. A limited severe
weather risk will continue at least into Monday with this pattern.

We may get a break from rain chances Monday night and Tuesday, but
this is far from guaranteed. By Tuesday night and Wednesday, an
upper trough moving across the central plains will allow a cold
front to approach from the north and reignite showers and
thunderstorms. This frontal boundary is not likely to make much
progress south into our area, although convective outflow may
reach farther south.

By late next week into the following weekend, an upper ridge
builds over the area and likely shuts down rain chances for
awhile. The heat will then be on, with widespread 90s for high
temperatures. Afternoon heat index values near or above 100
degrees can also be expected in some places.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 649 AM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025

Showers and thunderstorms are expected impact northeast OK
terminals and perhaps far northwest AR terminals this morning with
ongoing convection in northeast OK. Small hail and gusty winds
will be possible. Low cigs and reduced vsbys are expected to
persist across northwest AR through the next couple of hours or so.
Overall, the latest aviation forecast remains very low
confidence. Amendments will likely be needed through the daytime
as model guidance continues to struggle with the ongoing
convection and what happens after.

Mejia

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   84  70  88  70 /  70  20  30  20
FSM   86  72  89  71 /  60  20  40  20
MLC   84  70  88  71 /  30  20  40  20
BVO   83  67  87  68 /  70  40  40  20
FYV   83  68  87  67 /  70  20  30  30
BYV   82  68  87  67 /  60  20  30  30
MKO   83  69  88  70 /  80  20  40  20
MIO   82  69  86  69 /  60  30  30  30
F10   84  69  88  70 /  70  20  30  20
HHW   84  72  88  73 /  40  20  30  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...67