405
FXUS64 KTSA 062347
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
647 PM CDT Sat Jun 6 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 641 PM CDT Sat Jun 6 2026

 - Widespread showers and a few thunderstorms Saturday through
   Sunday. Heavy rain and localized flooding are the main
   concerns.

 - Minor flooding forecast for Polecat Creek near Sapulpa through
   Sunday morning.

 - A few storms could become marginally severe mainly Sunday
   afternoon. Main hazards will be damaging wind gusts and large
   hail.

 - Hot and humid weather arrives next week, with heat headlines
   likely.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Through tonight)
Issued at 1216 PM CDT Sat Jun 6 2026

Widespread showers with embedded thunderstorms are ongoing late
this morning across much of eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas.
Creek and Tulsa counties have seen the heaviest rainfall this
morning, with MRMS estimates of 2 to 4 inches across a large part
of this area and rainfall continuing. The Bristow Mesonet
observation is approaching 6 inches of rain since midnight. The
localized heavy rainfall is leading to a rapid rise on Polecat
Creek near Sapulpa, with minor flooding currently forecast there
later today through tomorrow morning.

Additional thunderstorm development is possible this afternoon,
primarily across portions of southeast Oklahoma where a higher
likelihood of seeing some breaks in the cloudiness exists. The
better chance of this appears to be just west of the forecast
area, however, given current satellite observations and recent
trends. Any storms in southeast Oklahoma would have potential for
isolated marginally severe hail and wind, although again, the
better potential for this is just west of the forecast area. The
existing activity and any additional development later today will
continue to push to the north and east into the evening and
overnight as the upper low currently spinning over the South Texas
Plains moves to the north and east. A relative lull in the
coverage will likely occur from mid to late evening into early
Sunday morning, with an increasing chance for showers and
thunderstorms once again from west to east beginning just before
dawn Sunday.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tomorrow through Saturday)
Issued at 1216 PM CDT Sat Jun 6 2026

The immediate concern in the longer term is the increased
potential for flash flooding during the day Sunday, especially
given this morning/s rains. A Flood Watch has been posted from 12Z
Sunday to 00Z Monday for much of northeast Oklahoma. Localized
potential for 3 to 4 inches of rainfall will exist given what has
occurred today and 90th percentile NBM QPF also in this range. The
watch may need to be expanded south and eastward at a later time,
depending on how things evolve this afternoon and evening.

Showers and thunderstorms should be ongoing Sunday morning, along
and west of Highway 75, having developed to the west and moved
eastward along with the aforementioned upper low Saturday night.
In addition to the heavy rain/flash flooding threat, a lower end
severe weather threat will also exist across much of the area
during the day and possibly, into the overnight. Given the
location of the upper low, this will include a tornado threat. The
showers and thunderstorm coverage will decrease from southwest to
northeast Sunday night and into Monday.

Early next week, upper level ridging builds into the area,
bringing fairly typical heat and humidity for this time of year to
the region. A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms will
exist Monday night near the Kansas and Missouri borders in
association with a disturbance moving along the periphery of the
ridge, but otherwise, a couple of days of dry weather looks
likely. Heat headlines look like a good bet during the period,
especially given the current rainfall and its likely impact on the
dew points.

Toward the latter part of the next week, an upper level trough in
the western United States will move toward the Northern and
Central Plains, which looks to bring a front into the area,
bringing additional shower and thunderstorm chances and reduced
humidity to at least northern parts of the area Friday and
possibly into Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 641 PM CDT Sat Jun 6 2026

Generally VFR conditions will prevail at the eastern Oklahoma
sites until late tonight when MVFR to IFR ceilings will develop.
Showers and storms may impact KMLC this evening. At the Arkansas
sites, widespread showers and isolated thunderstorms are expected
this evening, with MVFR to IFR conditions prevailing. Brief
improvement may occur at these sites late this evening, but MVFR
to IFR conditions will return late tonight. Conditions will
improve to VFR at most sites by Sunday afternoon, with scattered
showers and thunderstorms expected to increase in coverage again
by that time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   70  82  73  89 /  80  90  60  10
FSM   72  85  73  91 /  70  90  50  10
MLC   70  85  75  90 /  80  90  30   0
BVO   68  82  70  89 /  80  90  70  10
FYV   70  81  71  86 /  70  90  60  30
BYV   69  81  71  86 /  50  90  60  40
MKO   70  82  72  88 /  70  90  50  10
MIO   69  81  70  88 /  60  90  70  30
F10   70  83  74  89 /  80  90  30   0
HHW   71  84  74  90 /  60  70  20   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Flood Watch from Sunday morning through Sunday evening for
     OKZ055>067-154-254-354.

AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...22
LONG TERM....22
AVIATION...05