284
FXUS64 KTSA 030451
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1051 PM CST Tue Dec 2 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1051 PM CST Tue Dec 2 2025

 - Another potent cold front arrives today dropping temperatures
   back well below normal for Thursday.

 - Precipitation chances remain low... some light drizzle or
   freezing drizzle possible Wednesday night into Thursday and low
   chances for rain/wintry mix Thursday across southeast Oklahoma
   and northwest Arkansas.

 - Warmer and dry by the weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Through Wednesday)
Issued at 1051 PM CST Tue Dec 2 2025

Another cool night tonight into Wednesday morning, though
persistent southerly winds will keep temperatures from being as
cold Wednesday morning and they were on Tuesday. Some localized
areas of fog/freezing fog will be possible early Wednesday
morning, primarily within any sheltered valley locations across
far southeast Oklahoma or in the Arkansas River Valley of western
Arkansas. No widespread issues are expected, but some isolated
elevated surfaces could develop slick spots in the morning hours.
Temperatures will warm ahead of a frontal boundary that will make
its way into northeast Oklahoma during the late morning/early
afternoon hours. Thus, a fairly wide range in temperatures can be
expected today with temps warming into the mid to upper 40s
across northeast Oklahoma before dropping behind the front this
afternoon. While highs will get into the mid to upper 50s across
the south ahead of the front before its arrival later in the
afternoon. The frontal passage itself will be dry, just turning
sharply colder and gusty northerly winds driving wind chill values
into the 30s by late afternoon across the north.

Bowlan

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday Night through Tuesday)
Issued at 1051 PM CST Tue Dec 2 2025

The main impact for the long term will be in the Wednesday night
through Thursday evening timeframe. A fairly persistent signal has
been noted in the hi res model data, showing signs for drizzle
behind the front Wednesday night into Thursday morning as a weak
shortwave provides enough lift over the area. The moist layer
looks to remain below the frontal inversion, with the ice growth
layer remaining devoid of moisture through the night Wednesday,
and thus limiting the potential for other wintry precipitation.
With some of these areas falling well below freezing, freezing
drizzle will be the result which could lead to more widespread
travel impacts...especially by the Thursday morning commute,
mainly north of I-40. Another cold day is in store on Thursday,
with highs only in the 30s to low 40s under thick cloud cover and
with breezy northerly winds through much of the day. A secondary
shortwave will move across Oklahoma during the day Thursday. While
it will be in a weakening state, it could provide enough support
for some rain showers or possibly a light wintry mix mainly south
of I-40 from Thursday afternoon into the evening. Any amounts
look minimal, but some light icing or a couple tenths of
snow/sleet accumulations will be possible, especially in the
higher terrain areas of southeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas.

Skies clear Thursday night into Friday and the forecast generally
turns warmer and dry through the rest of the period. Various
frontal passages will moves through the region, though none
lookingnear as potent as recent fronts. A couple of disturbances
could bring some very low precip chances this weekend into early
next week, but have kept any PoPs below mentionable (less than
10%) currently. Dry and generally above normal temps will dominate
the first part of next week.

Bowlan

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1051 PM CST Tue Dec 2 2025

VFR conditions will prevail through the day Wednesday. MVFR ceilings
will develop from north to south Wednesday evening following the
passage of a cold front.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   29  49  24  36 /   0   0   0  10
FSM   28  53  34  43 /   0   0   0  20
MLC   32  54  31  41 /   0   0  10  20
BVO   25  46  20  35 /   0   0   0  10
FYV   27  50  28  40 /   0   0   0  10
BYV   27  50  26  38 /   0   0   0  10
MKO   30  52  29  41 /   0   0   0  10
MIO   27  47  21  36 /   0   0   0  10
F10   30  52  26  39 /   0   0   0  10
HHW   30  55  37  45 /   0   0  10  30

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM....04
AVIATION...05