814
FXUS64 KTSA 021115
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
515 AM CST Tue Dec 2 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 514 AM CST Tue Dec 2 2025

 - Cold night tonight with clearing skies

 - Temperatures warm somewhat through Wednesday before another
   potent cold front arrives dropping temperatures back well below
   normal for Thursday.

 - Precipitation chances remain low... some light drizzle or
   freezing drizzle possible Wednesday night and low rain chances
   Thursday near the Red River

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Through Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1047 PM CST Mon Dec 1 2025

Precipitation has exited the area this evening and skies will
begin to gradually clear from west to east with the passage of
the trough axis overnight tonight. Surface high pressure settling
over the region will allow temperatures to drop into the 20s to
upper teens by Tuesday morning. After the cold start, a decent
warm up is expected during the day Tuesday aided by mostly sunny
skies and a return of southerly winds. The surface high quickly
shifts east by Tuesday afternoon, while surface cyclogenesis
commences over eastern New Mexico in advance of the next wave. The
result will be rather gusty southerly winds by afternoon across
eastern Oklahoma, with some gusts of 20 mph possible. Temperatures
look to range from the mid 40s to lower 50s, though the breezy
conditions will likely make it feel cooler. Tuesday night won`t be
as cold, with lows generally in the upper 20s to lower 30s.

Bowlan

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 1047 PM CST Mon Dec 1 2025

Moving into the middle part of the week, the slight warming trend
will continue into Wednesday ahead of another frontal boundary
set to move through the region Wednesday afternoon. This will
bring another shot of cold air to the region. Trends continue to
be drier with this frontal passage as moisture remains pushed well
south of the forecast area. Still, a subtle mid level disturbance
moving across northern Oklahoma Wednesday night could generate
some very light precipitation over the area, though it will have
to overcome relatively dry air both aloft and near the surface.
Forecast soundings show more of a drizzle/freezing drizzle
scenario with the lack of any deeper moisture in the layer.
Chances still appear very low at this point, but will bear
watching as freezing drizzle can cause travel impacts rather
quickly if it occurs.

Thursday will be another cold day with highs in the 30s and breezy
northerly winds. Another wave moving through the area late
Thursday could generate some light rain showers, primarily near
the Red River Thursday into Thursday night. Better chances will
remain south of the forecast area, where better moisture will stay
put through the period. Generally seasonable and dry conditions
will close out the work week and weekend as we remain entrenched
in a northwest flow pattern aloft. Another frontal passage looks
to arrive on Sunday, though not as strong as the two fronts this
week. Any appreciable synoptic lift looks to remain north of the
local region, and thus precipitation chances remain below
mentionable through the rest of the period.

Bowlan

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 514 AM CST Tue Dec 2 2025

MVFR ceilings will persist across NW AR through early morning with
skies then becoming clear across all terminals by mid to late
morning. Light winds becoming southerly will corresponding to
passing sfc ridge axis.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   48  31  50  22 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   46  28  55  32 /   0   0   0  10
MLC   50  34  56  27 /   0   0   0  10
BVO   48  27  47  18 /   0   0   0  10
FYV   44  28  50  24 /   0   0   0  10
BYV   43  27  50  22 /   0   0   0  10
MKO   46  30  52  24 /   0   0   0  10
MIO   43  28  47  17 /   0   0   0  10
F10   49  31  53  22 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   46  30  57  34 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM....04
AVIATION...07