385
FXUS64 KTSA 100551
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1151 PM CST Sun Nov 9 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1139 PM CST Sun Nov 9 2025

 - Cold temperatures continue through Monday. Wind chill readings
   fall to 12-22 F by early Monday morning.

 - Widespread hard freeze with high potential for a killing freeze
   tonight; Freeze Warning in effect from 9 PM this evening until
   9 AM Monday.

 - Much above normal temperatures return mid through late week.
   Dry weather will persist until Saturday, with breezy conditions
   at times.

 - Shower and thunderstorm chances next weekend, with a low chance
   for strong to severe storms.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Monday)
Issued at 1139 PM CST Sun Nov 9 2025

After a widespread hard to killing freeze overnight, Monday will
be another chilly day, but winds will be lighter than Sunday.
Sunshine will be abundant, with afternoon high temperatures
mostly in the 40s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 1139 PM CST Sun Nov 9 2025

Gusty south winds return Tuesday, heralding a warming trend that
will continue through the rest of the week. Fire weather concerns
will increase some Tuesday, and again Thursday and Friday, with a
brief break from the gusty winds Wednesday as a weak frontal
boundary briefly dips south into the area. Afternoon high
temperatures will warm well above normal Wednesday through Friday,
with some places possibly reaching near 80 degrees by Friday.

The next storm system will affect the area next weekend. Track and
timing differences remain, but for now it appears the highest
shower and thunderstorm chances will be Saturday and Saturday
night. Instability may be sufficient for a few strong to severe
storms as well given the strength of the system, but this time of
year track and timing will be important regarding the overall
severe threat. This will be need to be monitored as the week
progresses. Temperatures will likely cool back to near the
seasonal averages following the passage of this system late next
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1139 PM CST Sun Nov 9 2025

VFR conditions should persist through the TAF period with mostly
clear skies and light winds between west and north. Monday
afternoon and evening, winds become more variable as they begin
to transition back out of the south once surface high pressure
exits the region.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   25  46  35  68 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   28  47  30  65 /   0   0   0   0
MLC   26  49  34  68 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   21  45  29  68 /   0   0   0   0
FYV   21  43  24  61 /   0   0   0   0
BYV   21  41  26  60 /   0   0   0   0
MKO   25  47  31  67 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   22  42  28  62 /   0   0   0   0
F10   26  48  32  68 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   29  50  32  66 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Freeze Warning until 9 AM CST Monday for OKZ049-053>076.

AR...Freeze Warning until 9 AM CST Monday for ARZ001-002-010-011-019-
     020-029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...20