Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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FXUS63 KABR 121753 AAA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
1253 PM CDT Mon Mar 12 2018

Issued at 1253 PM CDT Mon Mar 12 2018

18z aviation discussion updated below.

UPDATE Issued at 1052 AM CDT Mon Mar 12 2018

Surface high pressure through the day with winds under 10 mph.
Highs in the lower to mid 30s still look good with maybe some
upper 30s to 40 degrees far southwest in the cwa. Updated


.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 357 AM CDT Mon Mar 12 2018

High pressure and clear skies have dominated the forecast this
morning. So far, no solid signs of fog development on satellite
imagery or surface obs. Not overly confident in the fog occurrence in
the next few hours, but hi-res models continue to hint at at least
patchy development. Therefore, let the hi-res model visibility grids
shake out into a low coverage/patchy fog mention. Very similar set
up for early Tuesday morning, although bufkit soundings perhaps show
an even better dry air/subsidence pattern that may give us a greater
chance at fog development. There should be low level moisture due to
snowmelt after another afternoon of temperatures in the 30s, but
models also show some high cloud cover possibly sneaking by early
Tuesday morning. Not overly confident and did not mention any fog
for Tuesday morning at this time.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 357 AM CDT Mon Mar 12 2018

The pattern through mid week remains unchanged with drier conditions
and a warming trend in place. High pressure at the sfc will dominate
as an upper ridge slowly transitions east over the Plains by mid to
late week. Temperatures will range from the upper 30s to lower 50s
by Wed and Thu.

Models continue to diverge with precip chances late week with the
GFS remaining the wetter outlier in comparison to the ECMWF and
Canadian which keep the precip over southern portions of the
forecast area only from Thursday through Sunday.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1253 PM CDT Mon Mar 12 2018

Mainly VFR conditions are expected at all locations through today,
tonight and Tuesday morning. With the light winds tonight along with
mostly clear skies, expect areas of IFR/MVFR fog to form possibly
affecting all locations into early Tuesday morning.




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