Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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000
FXUS63 KABR 210536 AAC
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
1236 AM CDT Sat Apr 21 2018

.UPDATE...
Issued at 954 PM CDT Fri Apr 20 2018

Overall, the forecast appears on track. No changes planned at this
time.

UPDATE Issued at 624 PM CDT Fri Apr 20 2018

See below for an aviation forecast discussion for the 00Z TAFs.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 333 PM CDT Fri Apr 20 2018

Main forecast challenge in the near term is precipitation chances
tonight. The region is currently situated between a large area of
high pressure to the east, and elongated low pressure over the
Rockies. Precipitation is ongoing from southwestern Kansas to
southwestern South Dakota as of 19Z. Models and CAM solutions are in
fairly good agreement that some of this precipitation will reach the
southwestern CWA, but likely not much further. Will keep slight
chance/chance POPs going from late this afternoon through the
overnight hours, with the precipitation then coming to an end as the
main low drops southeastward. Temperatures will remain warm enough
through the night for the precipitation to be in the form of rain.
Saturday will be dry as weak high pressure settles in over the area.

Overnight lows will be in the mid to upper 30s, with highs on
Saturday mainly in the 50s.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday Evening through Friday)
Issued at 333 PM CDT Fri Apr 20 2018

The main focus in the long term portion of the forecast continues to
be the vigorous shortwave that is progged to move through the area
Monday night into Tuesday.

Prior to that, relatively quiet weather conditions are expected to
prevail through the latter half of the weekend into early Monday as
weak ridging aloft and a sfc high east of the region continue to
control the local pattern. Anticipate seasonal temperatures on
Sunday with highs in the upper 50s to low 60s. All eyes then turn to
the system set to move in by Monday night into Tuesday. The one
noticeable change in model solutions today is the GFS slows the
timing of the system down a tad to bring it more in line with the
CMC/ECMWF. There will be a decent shot at some rainfall with this
system. Though, amounts shouldn`t exceed a quarter to half inch
range with most locations not getting more than a quarter inch. The
one noticeable change to the forecast was the addition of a slight
chc of pops late Wed/early Thu to sections of our northeast CWA
as another upper level trough and sfc front move through the
region. Otherwise, expect dry conditions to prevail as temps
remain seasonal.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday Night)
Issued at 1235 AM CDT Sat Apr 21 2018

For the most part, VFR conditions will prevail across the area
through Saturday. Scattered rain showers may work back into parts of
the western and southern CWA (KPIR) toward sunrise Saturday and
persist for a few hours. Brief periods of MVFR cigs/visbies are
possible with the rain. But, overall, dry conditions are expected
over the next 24 hours.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Dorn
SHORT TERM...Parkin
LONG TERM...Vipond
AVIATION...Dorn



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