Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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FXUS63 KABR 120137 AAB

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
837 PM CDT Sun Mar 11 2018

Issued at 835 PM CDT Sun Mar 11 2018

Tonight`s forecast for Wind/Temps/Fog and Sky cover looks good, so
no major updates are planned this evening.


.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 335 PM CDT Sun Mar 11 2018

Back edge of the stratus deck continues to advance southeast and is
now making its way through the Glacial Lakes region. The clouds will
eventually move out of the remaining CWA this evening, making way
for clear skies and light winds overnight as high pressure settles
in. There could be some fog tonight given the setup, so have
included that in the forecast. High pressure will remain in place on
Monday as well, bringing mostly sunny skies and light winds. Highs
will rise into the 30s for most areas.

.LONG TERM...(Monday Evening through Sunday)
Issued at 335 PM CDT Sun Mar 11 2018

The warm up continues across the cwa from Tuesday into Wednesday
with not much change in high temperatures through at least Saturday.
The models show a sharp upper level high pressure ridge off to our
west on Monday night with a large upper level low pressure area off
the Pacific coast. The upper ridge and low pressure area slowly move
east through the week and into the weekend. At this time, our area
should be predominantly in subsidence with surface high pressure in
control through at least Thursday. Monday night will be another cool
night over snow cover with clear skies and light winds. There may
also be some fog forming Monday night/early Tuesday. Tuesday will be
another cool day with not much wind under sunny skies. With the
March sun, expect highs mainly in the lower to mid 30s as snow cover
continues to diminish. It will then warm up into Wednesday into the
upper 30s to the upper 40s with highs expected to remain in this
range through Saturday. Although, if surface high pressure pushes in
stronger from the north on Wednesday and Thursday as a few models
show, temperatures may be cooler with the snow cover being pretty
much limited or gone by Thursday.

The EC and Canadian show good agreement from Thursday night through
Sunday while the GFS was the outlier. The consensus still shows some
chances of light rain/snow from Thursday night through Friday with a
possible weak upper level trough coming across the region. The main
issue will be with how the models handle the large upper level low
pressure area in the southwest U.S. The Canadian and EC track it
east into the central plains from Saturday into Sunday while the GFS
was farther north. Therefore, our region would be more affected.
Have in good chances of rain/snow at this time for Sunday into
Sunday night. Things will likely change since this is at the end of
the forecast period.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday Evening)
Issued at 621 PM CDT Sun Mar 11 2018

VFR sky conditions are expected through the taf valid period.
However, patchy/areas of fog are possible late tonight with
MVFR/IFR vsbys possible with the fog. Most of the fog should have
lifted by noon on Monday.




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