Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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000
FXUS63 KABR 150559 AAC
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
1259 AM CDT Tue May 15 2018

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1251 AM CDT Tue May 15 2018

See below for an aviation forecast discussion for the 06Z TAFs.

UPDATE Issued at 925 PM CDT Mon May 14 2018

Still a few spotty light showers in the cwa this evening and they
should dissipate over the next few hours. Otherwise, rest of
forecast looked good.

UPDATE Issued at 655 PM CDT Mon May 14 2018

00z aviation discussion updated below.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 320 PM CDT Mon May 14 2018

Got a couple weak waves moving through the area this afternoon. One
off to our east is still producing showers over the eastern CWA.
Another vort located over central SD is starting to produce a few
showers as well. Through the course of the evening, the trend from
the CAM`s seem to suggest a gradual departure of showers across the
east as that wave continues moving out of the area. Although, the
wave over central SD looks to potentially bring some additional
shower and thunderstorm development well into this evening. Several
CAM solutions indicate this and have included some low chance POPs
to cover this up to about 06Z tonight. Evening shift will likely
have to make some modifications to POPs based on actual areal
coverage that materializes this evening. Tuesday is looking mostly
dry, although CAM`s are hinting at a few showers across central SD,
so this will have to be examined a bit further during the overnight.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Evening through Monday)
Issued at 320 PM CDT Mon May 14 2018

The region will be between systems Tuesday night and most of the day
on Wednesday. Southerly flow at the sfc will keep warm temps going.
By Wed night a sfc low will begin to move off the Rockies. Coupled
with shortwave energy continuing to eject out of a West coast
trough, enough instability will be available for thunderstorms to
develop, especially west of the James valley. The sfc low will be
slow to depart, merely dropping farther south in the Plains. This
will keep showers in the forecast into the weekend. Thunderstorm
chances will diminish on Friday, though, as an upper trough drops
over the Dakotas. Cooler temps are anticipated in this trough with
highs only in the 60s on Fri and Sat.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1251 AM CDT Tue May 15 2018

VFR conditions are expected at all locations through tonight and
Tuesday. Caveat: light winds, clearing skies and surface relative
humidity of 100% is causing some patchy dense fog over by KATY
right now. This isn`t expected to persist for very long as a
backdoor cold front works into the KATY terminal, causing winds to
switch around to the north-northeast and increase to 5-10knots and
draw in some drier surface/near surface air (to eradicate the
fog).

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Dorn
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...Wise
AVIATION...Dorn



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