Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 192021

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
321 PM CDT Thu Apr 19 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 320 PM CDT Thu Apr 19 2018

Mid/upper level ridging dominates pattern across the northern
plains aloft, with surface high pressure across our CWA.
Temperatures (as anticipated) have been at least as warm and in
most locations warmer than yesterday, with some locations near
60F. The upper level ridge shifts eastward some, which supports
further moderation of the air mass aloft. Fog/stratus may develop
in central ND just west of our CWA by Friday morning (and possibly
into our west), and additional cloud cover is shown to slide
eastward towards the Red River Valley. Clearing appears to be
favored in the later afternoon. This may result in highs "only" as
warm as today despite anticipated WAA aloft. If there is more
clearing/less opaque cloud cover we may see highs even warmer
Friday than today.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 320 PM CDT Thu Apr 19 2018

A quiet weather pattern expected through most of the forecast
period. Sat/Sun look to be pcpn free with highs in the 50s Sat with
southerly winds prevailing before a boost in the 60s many areas Sun
as wind swings around more to the SW. A cold front would look to
wash out as it approaches from the north and west later Sun yielding
only slight POP chances. 500mb flow brings a strengthening shortwave
across the Northern Rockies into the Plains Tuesday. With it clouds
and cooler temps along with rain chances move into the area. Highs
will be a bit lower with the 50s for the middle of the week. EC and
GEFS ensembles/plumes show that the most likely rainfall amounts
across the FA range from a tenth to a third of an inch with one
member of the GEFS suite remaining high, a spike to just short of
one inch.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1220 PM CDT Thu Apr 19 2018

VFR conditions should prevail through the TAF period for most
terminals across eastern ND and northwest MN. Fog/stratus may
develop once again across central ND, and could spread towards
KDVL. Confidence was too low to decrease vis/cigs at KDVL below
VFR at this time based on favored region of fog being further
west. Light south-southwest winds during the day and variable
winds at night are expected to continue.


Issued at 320 PM CDT Thu Apr 19 2018

Little to no snow cover remains across the forecast area other
than along the Goose River, portions of the Sheyenne, and a
small area in northwest Minnesota (according to satellite imagery
and ground observations). Therefore, most of the impacts from
winter precipitation are now making their way into area rivers and

Minor flooding remains the main threat for most points on the
mainstem Red River along with its tributaries. At this time, the
exception appears to be Oslo which has the greatest chance of
reaching moderate flood. Note that current river forecasts do not
take into account the possibility for any ice jamming which could
contribute to higher river levels than forecast. No precipitation
is expected through the weekend which should allow river levels
in the southern Red River Valley to begin to level off or even




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