Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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000
FXUS63 KAPX 130727
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
227 AM EST Wed Nov 13 2019

.NEAR TERM...(Today through Tonight)
Issued at 227 AM EST Wed Nov 13 2019

...Light synoptic snow for all today and tonight...with significant
lake enhanced snow for Western Mackinac county...

High Impact Weather Potential...Widespread mainly light synoptic
snow accumulations for our entire CWA with significant accumulations
of lake enhanced snow showers for Western Mackinac county thru
tonight. This event will lead to greatly lowered vsbys and hazardous
road conditions.

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast...Surface ridge axis is currently
extending from the Ohio Valley thru Michigan northward to James Bay
early this morning. Low level winds are still in the process of
shifting to the west and eventually to the S/SW...shifting focus of
ongoing lake effect snow showers northward toward the Tip of the
Mitt...the Straits and Eastern Upper Michigan. Winds are shifting to
a more southerly trajectory in advance of an area of low pressure
developing over South Central Canada...with the associated warm
front extending southward thru the Northern Plains. This system will
slide eastward thru the Western Great Lakes today and tonight...
setting the stage for widespread light synoptic snow for our entire
CWA and more significant lake enhanced snow showers for a small
portion of Eastern Upper Michigan.

The key to this near term forecast is the exact low level wind
trajectory that sets up in advance of this approaching system.
Latest near term models show a nearly straight southerly low level
flow...which is generally not favorable for lake enhanced snow
showers for the vast majority of our CWA. The exception is far
Western Mackinac county. If low level winds evolve to a more S/SW
trajectory...additional areas of both Chippewa and Mackinac counties
could get into some of this lake enhanced snowfall...and even
shoreline areas of Leelanau...Benzie and Manistee could see some
enhancement as well. At this point...think low level winds will set
up to a nearly straight southerly flow today into this evening.
Based on expected QPF...will keep far Western Mackinac county under
a Winter Wx Advisory with up to 9 inches of new snow expected for
this area over the next 24 hours. Will keep the rest of our CWA
headline free...but will need to keep a close eye on how radar
trends evolve as this event plays out.

Expect another chilly day and night across Northern Michigan despite
some low level WAA occurring. Afternoon highs will only warm into
the 20s...with overnight lows dipping back into the teens in most
locations.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Thursday through Friday)
Issued at 227 AM EST Wed Nov 13 2019

High impact weather potential: Possible lakeshore flooding issues
Friday with strong westerly to northwesterly flow.


A weak cold front associated with an area of low pressure over
Hudson Bay will be departing the forecast area Thursday morning.
Surface high pressure and drier air will build into northern
Michigan for a quick reprive from precipitation...although can`t
rule out some flurries here and there as 850mb temps are still cold
enough to produce lake snows with some lingering mid-level moisture
that may help with some seeder-feeder processes. Another weak cold
front will sweep through the forecast area late Thursday through
Friday with -10 to -15C 850mb temps and a bit deeper moisture
producing chances for light lake effect snows. Friday afternon high
pressure and drier air build back into the Great Lakes region from
Ontario creating a precipitation-free Friday afternoon and Saturday.
There will be some lakeshore flooding concerns Friday as winds veer
to more westerly and then northwesterly behind the aforementioned
cold front and become gusty. Highs will be in the upper 20s to low
30s throughout the period, while lows Thursday night will drop into
the upper teens to low 20s and single digits above zero Friday night
with clearing skies and light winds.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 225 AM EST Wed Nov 13 2019

High Impact Weather Potential: None at this time.

Upper level flow finally becomes more zonal. Friday will see high
pressure and much drier air begin a retreat to the east as synoptic
moisture returns with a weak clipper system Sunday. Several other
disturbances look to take aim at the Great Lakes region...producing
precipitation chances throughout the rest of the period. Highs will
be in the low to mid 30s Sunday and warm to the mid to upper 30s by
Monday and last through the rest of the period, while lows will
generally be in the 20s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
Issued at 1140 PM EST Tue Nov 12 2019

Lake effect snow showers and attendant periods of reduced
visibility and lower cigs should continue to improve early this
morning as moisture scours out and lake snow organization wanes.
Improvement won`t last long however, as next clipper type system
brings more widespread light snow and lower cigs from west to east
across northern Michigan later this morning. Any new snow
accumulations should remain light, with amounts topping out at a
few inches by late today, heaviest at KMBL. Winds become a touch
gusty out of the south today, but should not produce any
significant blowing and drifting snow. Snow to liquid ratios will
remain fairly elevated through the period.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 227 AM EST Wed Nov 13 2019

Winds and waves will continue to reach SCA criteria today into this
evening across all of our nearshore areas. Low level flow will shift
to a nearly straight southerly trajectory in advance of low pressure
that will slide thru Michigan over the next 24 hours. Widespread
light synoptic snow will develop and impact our region thru tonight.
Lake enhanced snow showers will target mainly far Western Mackinac
county for the most persistent snowfall and lowest vsbys thru
tonight.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 11 AM this morning to 10 PM EST
     this evening for MIZ095.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 7 PM EST this evening for LHZ345>349.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 7 PM EST this evening for LMZ323-341-
     342-344>346.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 7 PM EST this evening for LSZ321-322.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MR
SHORT TERM...TL
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...MB
MARINE...MR


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