Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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000
FXUS63 KAPX 130105
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
905 PM EDT Wed Aug 12 2020

.UPDATE...
Issued at 905 PM EDT Wed Aug 12 2020

High pressure is overhead this evening, though weakening somewhat,
with a stronger high up by Hudson Bay gradually becoming dominant.
Return flow into western WI is helping support deep convection,
with a prominent MCV providing a considerable amount of forcing.
This small MCS is going to outrun any semblance of a low-level jet
as it tries to move eastward. CAMs wipe out this activity very
quickly, and that appears to be very much in error. But am still
thinking that it unlikely for precip to make it to this forecast
area. 00Z APX sounding is relatively dry, especially below 575mb.

But, incoming cloud cover is already nudging toward eastern upper
MI, and a fairly large swath of clouds is inbound further west.
Guidance has gone cloudier for the overnight hours and into
Thursday morning, and that is an idea I can get behind. Will have
eastern upper MI becoming mostly cloudy overnight, and northern
lower becoming partly cloudy. Those cloudier conditions have also
been stretched into the daylight hours Thu morning.

The above favors boosting min temps in most areas.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(Through Thursday)
Issued at 238 PM EDT Wed Aug 12 2020

...Quiet stretch of weather...

High Impact Weather Potential: None.

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast: Short-wave ridging extends through the
central and northern Plains into Canada with downstream westerly
mid level flow through the Great Lakes. A couple of smaller scale
waves are embedded in the flow; one sliding into northern Lower
Michigan with little more than patchy clouds. Second convectively
induced wave is moving through Minnesota into Wisconsin along with
a compact round of showers/storms.

At the surface, large expanse of surface high pressure and dry
air encompasses all the Great Lakes providing lots of sunshine and
quiet weather across the region. Southerly return flow of
moisture/instability extends northward through the Plains with
aforementioned compact round of showers/storms occurring along the
very eastern edge of the instability gradient.

Primary Forecast Concerns: Minimal.

Upstream wave in Minnesota will slowly track across northern
Michigan later tonight through Thursday. Ongoing convection will
continue to move slowly eastward into the U.P. tonight although
weaken substantially as it outpaces it`s supporting instability
axis further to the west. But there may be some remnant cloud
cover (maybe a shower?) that tracks through the region late
tonight through Thursday. I`ll keep the forecast dry...but I have
nudged cloud cover upward just a bit late overnight through
Thursday, particularly across eastern Upper MI.

Overnight lows will dip into the 50s for most areas, possibly a
few upper 40 degree readings. Highs Thursday will once again span
the 80s with the warmest readings in the SW counties owing to
easterly downsloping flow.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Thursday night through Saturday)
Issued at 238 PM EDT Wed Aug 12 2020

High impact weather potential: Thunder possible Saturday night,
although none expected to become severe at this time.

Pattern synopsis/forecast:

Surface high pressure and upper level ridging continues to dominate
northern Michigan`s weather through at least Saturday afternoon.
This ridge of high pressure begins a push eastward and allows a weak
cold front associated with an area of low pressure over Canada to
begin an approach into the Great Lakes region Saturday evening and
provides the next chances for some rain showers...beginning in
eastern upper and progressing to the east and southward through the
night. Thunder will be possible late Saturday into the overnight
hours and possibly into the next forecast period. Don`t expect any
severe storms at this time due to weak shear and instability.
Daytime temperatures will be in the mid 80s and a bit more humid
Saturday with southerly flow advecting low level moisture into the
forecast area. Nighttime lows will be in the mid 50s to near 60.
Winds will continue to be light out of the south to southwest under
high pressure through Saturday night...until the aforementioned cold
front passes Sunday, then the winds will veer to northwesterly.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 238 PM EDT Wed Aug 12 2020

High Impact Weather Potential: Minimal...

Amplified ridging in place across Ontario will give way to troughing
approaching from the west Sunday. This troughing looks to dig into
the Great Lakes, supporting a cyclone that is expected to move
across Hudson Bay over the weekend. An associated cold front will
likely sweep down across the region from Canada in the Sunday
timeframe. This will provide the next chance for rain and possibly
thunder across northern Michigan. While southerly low-level flow
should bring some mid 60s dewpoints into the area, meager upper-
level shear will work against the potential for stronger, organized
thunderstorms over the weekend. This frontal passage would wipe
favorable low-level moisture from the Great Lakes and, along with
surface high pressure building in behind, bring the return of rain-
free weather to northern Michigan. High temperatures look to drop
back down into the low to mid 70s behind the front, making for a
cooler start to next work week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
Issued at 725 PM EDT Wed Aug 12 2020

IFR fog possible PLN/MBL overnight.

High pressure is overhead this evening, and will slowly head off
to the ne during this forecast. Mainly clear skies will be seen
this evening, though mid/high clouds (remnants of showers now
advancing into nw WI) will push into the area overnight. There is
expected to be IFR fog at times overnight at MBL and PLN. Some mid
and high clouds will linger Thursday, but no precip is expected.

Light winds.


&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 238 PM EDT Wed Aug 12 2020

High pressure across the Great Lakes will maintain overall light
winds and waves on the lakes through Thursday. System will weaken
a bit later Thursday into Friday while low pressure deepens
through the Ohio Valley. This will lead to a little stronger east
to southeasterly flow, although winds/waves will remain below any
headline criteria.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JZ
NEAR TERM...BA
SHORT TERM...TL
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...JZ
MARINE...BA


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