221
FXUS63 KBIS 010557
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
1257 AM CDT Tue Jul 1 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Low to medium chances for occasional showers or thunderstorms
  through Thursday afternoon.

- Gradual warming trend through Thursday, with increasing
  humidity.

- Medium to high chances for showers and thunderstorms Thursday
  night through Independence Day.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1257 AM CDT Tue Jul 1 2025

A quiet night continues across western and central North Dakota
still. Ingested the newest NBM forecast.

UPDATE
Issued at 947 PM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025

A quiet evening continues across western and central North
Dakota. Just blended in the latest observations to the going
forecast.

UPDATE
Issued at 615 PM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025

The forecast should remain quiet through the evening across
western and central North Dakota. The few fair weather cumulus
clouds floating around will continue to diminish with the loss
of daytime heating.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 153 PM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025

Current surface analysis places low over Ontario with high over
northeast Wyoming, bringing a northwesterly breeze to the area.
Upper level analysis places trough over the Midwest with ridge
over the northern Rockies. Very modest cyclonic flow over our
area combined with daytime heating has resulted in widespread
cumulus clouds over our area, with one very small compact
shower noted over south central North Dakota.

For the rest of today into this evening, mainly quiet weather
expected with the northwest breeze eventually tapering off. A
few weak showers and maybe a stray weak thunderstorm may develop
primarily around the James River Valley this afternoon in the
weak cyclonic flow, which would end by early evening.

Upper ridge then gradually creeps over our area through mid-
week. A few weak waves sliding through the ridge will bring
occasional low shower/thunderstorm chances over parts of the
area. The main story will be a gradual warming trend, with
highs pushing into the 90s over parts of the area Wednesday, and
across most of the area by Thursday. In addition, humidity will
also be on the increase.

On Thursday ridge axis slides to the east, with upper flow
becoming southwest over our area. This will result in
increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms Thursday night
going into Independence Day. For the anticipated Thursday night
storms, instability is expected to be elevated with plenty of
moisture in place, but deep layer shear remains in question,
which may be the limiting factor in severe potential, though
some areas of heavy rain may become a concern given the moist
atmosphere. An active pattern remains in place for Saturday into
the start of the upcoming week, bringing daily low to medium
chances for showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1257 AM CDT Tue Jul 1 2025

VFR CIGs and VIS through the entire period. Light and variable
winds tonight and into Tuesday morning. Wind directions will be
different throughout the state, but should only be around 12kts.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Smith
DISCUSSION...JJS
AVIATION...Smith