Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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000
FXUS63 KBIS 142339
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
639 PM CDT Sat Apr 14 2018

.UPDATE...
Issued at 637 PM CDT Sat Apr 14 2018

Quiet weather remains over the region as some high clouds pass
through. For early evening update have adjusted cloud cover a bit
in line with latest observations.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 232 PM CDT Sat Apr 14 2018

Quiet in the short term period.

Sunny skies across a majority of the forecast area this afternoon.
Higher clouds are pushing into the far west, and mid-high clouds
remain over the far southern James River Valley associated with
the exiting storm system impacting South Dakota and Minnesota.

For tonight, Mainly clear and quiet. a return flow picks up in the
west which should help moderate overnight lows. But central ND
should see temperatures drop quickly tonight with lows falling
into the single digits over snow covered areas, and teens
elsewhere.

Another quiet day is expected on Sunday. Increasing clouds in the
west tonight get shunted back north and west as the initial surge
of return flow is quite dry. Thus we should see a good amount of
sunshine on Sunday with temperatures 5-10 degrees warmer than
today, depending mainly on the amount of snow remaining on the
ground.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 232 PM CDT Sat Apr 14 2018

The main concern in the long term period is the Monday night
through Wednesday timeframe.

Long wave trough pushes onshore across the western CONUS Sunday
night, then advances east into the Rockies Monday night.
There remains high uncertainty how this trough will evolve as it
crosses the Rockies into the plains. The 00Z GFS indicates the
trough becoming negatively tilted across the region, bringing a
decent amount of QPF to western and central North Dakota. The 00Z
ECMWF morphs into a split flow and develops a closed low pressure
system over the Central Plains keeping the heavier QPF to our
south. Will again maintain blended POPs for this system with rain
or snow chances across the Northern Plains late Monday night
ending during the day Wednesday.

We did get a period of mixed precipitation late Monday night into
Tuesday morning over western ND. Looking at the GFS forecast
soundings the atmosphere aloft is quite dry and there does not
appear to be a saturated 1KM layer at the surface until around 12
UTC Tue or sometime thereafter. Therefore we knocked the ProbIce
up to 100 percent to get rid of the freezing rain. However,
surface temperatures are at or below freezing during this same
time so we still get a mention of fzra. After 12Z there is a
period short period where we could potentially see a brief shot of
mixed precipitation. However, think the QPF will generally be
light and surface temperatures may or may not be below freezing.
Will keep a general mention of mixed precipitation for now as it`s
too far out for anything more specific. By the time we get to late
morning Tuesday, precipitation will either be rain or snow.

Some places could see an inch or two of wet snow on grassy
surfaces Tuesday into Tuesday evening. But daytime highs will be
warm enough that impacts will be minimal. May have to worry about
slippery/icy roads Tuesday night as surface temperatures drop
below freezing. System lingers through Wednesday but qpf amounts
drop significantly after 12Z Wednesday.

Dry weather follows on Thursday as ridging attempts to rebuild.
This is followed by another closed low moving out of the central
Rockies Friday/Friday night (GFS and ECMWF). So far both models
keep the system to our south.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
Issued at 637 PM CDT Sat Apr 14 2018

VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast period.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JJS
SHORT TERM...TWH
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...JJS



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