Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 191953

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
253 PM CDT Thu Apr 19 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 209 PM CDT Thu Apr 19 2018

Fog is likely to redevelop across parts of northwest and north
central North Dakota tonight, continuing into Friday morning.

The latest CAM model guidance and forecast NAM BUFR soundings
support the redevelopment of fog in these areas around midnight,
continuing through about 11 AM CDT tomorrow morning.

A split flow synoptic pattern will continue through Friday with a
large upper level low centered over the Central Plains and nearly
zonal flow across North Dakota. A surface high centered over
Minnesota will lead to 10-15 kt southeasterly winds tomorrow
across western and central North Dakota.

Forecast NAM/GFS BUFR soundings and the latest suite of model
guidance suggest a mostly cloudy day tomorrow across southern
North Dakota with breaks of sunshine in the afternoon for much of
central and northern North Dakota after morning fog lifts. A brief
sprinkle cannot be ruled out across southwest North Dakota along
the border of South Dakota tomorrow. High temperatures look to be
in the 50s.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 209 PM CDT Thu Apr 19 2018

Warmer temperatures with dry weather for the weekend, with the
return of precipitation Monday night into Tuesday highlight the
extended forecast.

The 12z iterations of the GFS and ECMWF favor the continuation of
a split flow synoptic pattern as the large upper level low over
the Central Plains dives southeast into Arkansas by Sunday.

Nearly all of western and central North Dakota should feature
highs in the 60s for Saturday and Sunday with partly to mostly
sunny skies. Most model guidance suggests temperatures that are
too cold for the Missouri Coteau, likely due to a combination of
model snow depth being too high compared to observations and bias-
corrected models struggling with a pattern change to warmer

A potent shortwave trough swings through North Dakota Monday
night through Tuesday, bringing with it enough moisture and lift
to support light to moderate rain across North Dakota. The 12z
iteration of the GFS suggests moderate to strong mid-level
frontogenesis across southern North Dakota for Monday night,
combined with modest Q-vector convergence. For these reasons,
southern North Dakota looks to have the best chances for heavier
rainfall Monday night.

Wednesday and Thursday look to be dry with the return of zonal
flow across North Dakota. Strong late April sunshine will help
warm western and central North Dakota into the upper 50s and 60s for
both Wednesday and Thursday.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1236 PM CDT Thu Apr 19 2018

Fair weather cumulus clouds will continue to develop this
afternoon and with MVFR/VFR cloud bases through sunset. An area
of low to mid clouds will move into North Dakota tonight with
MVFR/VFR conditions continuing for all terminals. Patchy fog will
likely affect KMOT between 05z and 14z, leading to IFR conditions.
Fog may also affect KISN during this time as well, however
confidence is not as high for this terminal.




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