Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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FXUS63 KMPX 171014

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
514 AM CDT Sat Mar 17 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 500 AM CDT Sat Mar 17 2018

Surface analysis early this morning shows broad high pressure over
the Dakotas into MN/WI while a potent low pressure center is located
over central MO. Aloft, an upper level low is situated atop the
surface low while a ridge of high pressure sits to the north, spread
across the Dakotas into MN. The ridge over this region will be
reinforced by a ridge axis extending from the Deep South into the
Central Plains and this ridge will then poke north into the Northern
Plains. This building ridge will help squeeze the low pressure
system to the south away to the east, ending precipitation over
southern MN by around daybreak this morning and allowing skies to
gradually clear out across the Upper Mississippi River Valley region
today. As the ridge axis moves across the region, the center of high
pressure will slide southeast, moving into the Ohio River Valley
region by daybreak Sunday morning. A swath of mid-upper level
moisture on the backside of the ridge will spell an increase in
higher clouds this evening through overnight tonight but no
precipitation is expected. Warmer temperatures are expected for
today with the deep high pressure and clearing skies. Highs will
range through the 40s across the WFO MPX coverage area followed by
lows tonight in the 20s area-wide.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 500 AM CDT Sat Mar 17 2018

The main longer term concerns remain the snow chances late Monday
into Tuesday night and again late in the week.

Sunday still looks mild with some clouds still forecast to move
eastward during the day. Latest model trends they may not work
into western WI during the day. If this holds true, that region
should remain the warmest. We kept the lower and middle 40s for

The timing of the next trough brings moisture and weak forcing
into far western Minnesota late Monday. This spreads east Monday
night through Tuesday night at least. The trough weakens as it
moves through. Moisture/forcing weakens Tuesday so at the moment,
it appears any snow chances wont make it far into west central
Wisconsin. Forecast snow totals range less than 2 inches with
this system. This could change of course, depending on the stength
of the incoming trough and if it taps deeper moistures.

The Canadian and ECMWF were indicating a secondary trough moving
through the northern stream Wednesday. Small PoPs were indicated
with the blended model with this system. If the trends of the
ECWMF and Canadian models continue, we may have to increase
chances for Wednesday as well. Again, it looks like it mainly
affects the MN portion of the cwa.

Finally, the next and potentially more significant system arrives
later Thursday night and Friday as more western CONUS trough
energy moves into the region. This system looks rather warm as it
moves into the area Friday with mainly rain indicated at this
time with a rather warm boundary layer. This system will have to
be monitored for the potential of more significant weather into
the weekend.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
Issued at 1015 PM CDT Fri Mar 16 2018

Dry high pressure will be in control this TAF period, which means
mainly clear skies and light and variable winds. Any precip this
evening will have trouble making it into FRM, let alone MKT, so
confidence is high all MPX terminals remain dry. additional concerns.

SUN...VFR/MVFR cigs. Winds lgt and vrb.
MON...MVFR cigs likely. Wind ENE 10 kts.
TUE...MVFR cigs likely. Chc -SN. Wind E 5 kts.




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