Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC

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000
FXUS62 KCAE 170643
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
243 AM EDT Sun Mar 17 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak area of low pressure will bring a chance for showers
Sunday afternoon and evening, particularly south of I-20. A cold
front will move through the region Sunday night and will usher
in cooler and drier air early next week with some freezing
temperatures possible. Dry weather and warmer temperatures
follow during the middle of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Water vapor satellite imagery early this morning indicates zonal
flow aloft with dry air in place over the forecast area as a
surface cold front has shifted to the Coastal Plain. With a
deepening upper trough pushing into the Midwest, do expect flow
aloft to shift slightly southwesterly, allowing moisture to
return to the forecast area. A weak shortwave embedded in this
southwest flow will move through the area late this morning into
the early afternoon which HiRes guidance indicates may lead to
some light showers developing over the area. The issue is that
forecast soundings do indicate a substantial dry layer below
10,000 feet so any rain may struggle to reach the ground. As a
result, did keep pops low through early afternoon before the
entire column moistens further by this evening. With more cloud
coverage today and likely some evaporational cooling, highs will
be cooler, in the upper 60s NW to mid 70s SE.

A stronger shortwave, currently visible generating thunderstorms
in south Texas is expected to move into the area by this
evening. The general trend has been a more suppressed solution
to the south which will favor rain chances south of I-20,
although chances will be higher in this area by evening then
they will be during the afternoon. Even with the possibility of
showers, HREF mean shows the highest probability of total
rainfall greater than a tenth of an inch favoring the Coastal
Plain. As the shortwave pushes to the east, a strong cold front
will push into the area Sunday night which will usher in much
drier air with lows dropping into the mid to upper 40s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As the shortwave axis pushes to our east overnight Sunday,
strong cool and dry advection will swing in as a deep trough
digs into the eastern CONUS, chased by the strong surface high
back across the MS Valley. Breezy and dry conditions then
expected Monday as the cold advection regime strengthens ahead
of the surface high pressure to our west. Wind gusts up to 30
mph are possible Monday afternoon and a Lake Wind Advisory may
be warranted as confidence increases. Otherwise slightly below
average high temps are expected despite clear skies and
downsloping flow.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The cold start to Tuesday morning is the primary hazard in the
long term period, as temps will likely fall to around freezing
for much of the area. While confidence is relatively high that
a frost advisory will not be needed as winds will remain 10+ mph
overnight, a freeze warning is more likely as low temps are
likely to fall at or below freezing from I-20 north and west.
NBM probs are generally between 50-75% for subfreezing temps
Tuesday morning, with good run to run consistency and fairly
limited inter- quartile ranges. Climatologically we do struggle
to cool if winds remain as elevated as expected, so holding off
on a freeze watch until confidence increases. From Tuesday and
beyond, northwest flow will generally develop aloft and help
advect dry air with below average PWAT`s through Thursday
expected. Temps will likely warm back above average as
downsloping and clear skies continues each day. By late week,
the GEFS and EC members are all hinting at a cutoff trough
ejection from the Southwest CONUS, then pushing eastward.
Confidence is quite low in any details as there is wide
intra- and inter-ensemble spread but PWAT`s look likely to
increase by week`s end along with some sort of synoptic level
disturbance. So rain chances appear likely to increase late
Thursday through Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR conditions anticipated through the TAF period.

High clouds passing over the terminals with increasing moisture
expected into the day today with clouds lowering to around 8kft.
Winds increase out of the west by early afternoon between 10 to
15 knots. Rain chances increase this evening into tonight mainly
at the southern terminals (AGS/DNL/OGB), but rain should remain
light enough to prevent flight restrictions.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Breezy conditions possible Monday
afternoon/evening. No significant impacts to aviation expected
Monday night through Thursday.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
GA...None.

&&

$$


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