Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC
790 FXUS62 KCAE 120003 AFDCAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Columbia SC 803 PM EDT Fri Jul 11 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Weak ridging is moving over the region and through the weekend, allowing temperatures to slowly rise with typical summertime showers and thunderstorms. The ridge breaks down early next week, leading to cooler temperatures and higher rain chances once again during the middle of next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Key Message(s): - Isolated showers and storms this evening, then fairly tranquil overnight. Isolated to scattered showers and storms will continue through this evening before diminishing in coverage by midnight. With lingering low-level moisture from the rainfall the past few days, can not rule out some patchy fog development later tonight, but overall the coverage will remain limited. Lows overnight continue to range between 70 and 75 for most areas. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... Key Message(s): - Hot and humid conditions through the period. Heat Indices on Sunday and Monday should reach the 100 to 105 degree range. - Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms possible each day as upper ridging moves overhead. There is little change with this forecast package in the short term as weak upper ridging is still progged to move overhead this weekend and toward Monday, aiding in bringing high temperatures into the mid to upper 90s and with dewpoints remaining in the low to mid 70s, heat indices likely reach between 100 and 105F, just below Heat Advisory criteria. Sunday and Monday likely are the hottest with the greatest chance to approach advisory criteria expected Monday, but this is something that will continued to be monitored as the weekend starts with confidence in reaching criteria mainly Monday is low to medium. In terms of thunderstorm/shower chances, a return to more typical isolated to scattered afternoon and evening chances is expected as ridging aids in some suppression, but PWAT`s do remain between 1.7-2.0", thus deep moisture combined with diurnal heating should allow for these pulse storms to form with a lack of appreciable forcing and deep layer shear. Modest to strong instability each day does bring the chance that a storm or two could be on the stronger side with moderate DCAPE values in forecast soundings, but widespread severe weather is not anticipated. Locally heavy rain will also be possible in this environment with storms not moving very quick. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Key Message(s): - Near normal temperatures through the extended with increased rain chances as a diffuse upper low weakens ridging over the region. Recent global model runs and ensemble guidance are in decent agreement that upper ridging will become a bit more suppressed Tuesday through Thursday as a weak upper low and its surface reflection move across the Bahamas and toward the Gulf. As this moves into the Gulf, strong subtropical high pressure over the Atlantic (around 1.5 standard deviations from normal) develops and this should allow southeasterly to easterly flow to take over in the low levels throughout the region, allowing PWAT`s to reach near the NAEFS 90th percentile through the period. This combined with subtle forcing should allow mainly diurnally driven showers and storms each day where scattered to widespread coverage is expected at this time. Toward the end of the week there is a weak signal in the EC Ensemble and GEFS that the strong subtropical high may begin sliding slowly westward. && .AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Isolated thunderstorms with associated restrictions continue into this evening. Otherwise, VFR conditions expected through the TAF period. Isolated to scattered showers and storms will continue to be possible around all taf locations through 02z, then expect to see diminishing coverage through midnight. Outside of any rainfall, mainly vfr conditions are expected to occur, with the exception of brief patchy ground fog towards morning near areas that received any rainfall. Confidence remains too low to include at this time, however. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...There is the possibility of diurnally driven showers and thunderstorms this weekend with the potential for periodic restrictions. && .CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...None. GA...None. && $$