Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC

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FXUS62 KCAE 141922
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
322 PM EDT Thu Mar 14 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Well above normal temperatures are expected to continue into
the weekend. Moisture increases Friday ahead of a frontal system
leading to scattered showers and thunderstorms. The front is
anticipated to stall near the area over the weekend resulting in
additional rain chances, especially over the southern forecast
area. A cooler and drier air mass moves in early next week with
chilly temperatures possible, especially Monday night.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
High pressure will remain in control through tonight. A lack of
boundary layer winds has resulted in poor air quality across the
region with smoke from multiple days of prescribed burns trapped
near the surface. Otherwise, skies are cloud-free and temperatures
have risen into the upper 70s and low 80s across the area - quite
warm for the middle of March. Dry air remains in place a little
while longer with dewpoints in the 40s this afternoon, but they are
expected to slowly increase into the low 50s from southeast to
northwest overnight. High pressure will gradually slide offshore
under upper ridging, as a cold front approaches from the west. This
will keep surface winds out of the southwest with a strengthening
low level jet. Add in some high clouds to disrupt radiational
cooling, and lows tonight remain mostly in the mid-50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Friday and Friday Night: The upper ridge shifts to our east in
response to a deepening trough over the Great Lakes region. At the
surface, a cold front will approach the forecast area on Friday with
scattered showers and thunderstorms expected along and ahead of the
boundary. Clouds and moisture increase quickly during the morning
hours with periods of showers and thunderstorms possible during the
afternoon and evening hours, potentially persisting into the
overnight. Model guidance remains divided regarding convective
evolution tomorrow with the best chance for thunderstorms over the
CSRA and points to the south and west. The latest Day 2 SPC outlook
maintains a Marginal (1/5) risk for severe weather across the entire
FA minus Chesterfield County. The NAM is the most robust model in
terms of strong to severe weather showing CAPE at or above 1000 J/kg
and 0-6km Bulk Shear in excess of 40 knots at both CAE and AGS. This
combined with anomalously high PWATs and an Inverted V
signature would support at least an isolated damaging wind
threat. Any severe threat should diminish with the loss of
daytime heating with rain chances decreasing as the cold front
passes through the CWA and stalls to our south. Temperatures
will be above normal.

Saturday and Saturday Night: Latest guidance continues to support
the frontal boundary stalling to our south allowing drier air to
filter into our forecast area. This suggests a lower rain threat
and at least partial clearing during the daytime hours with just
a slight chance of a passing shower or two. Temperatures are
expected to be slightly cooler but still above normal.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A weak area of low pressure is expected to develop along the
stationary boundary to our south and ride along the boundary
approaching the FA later in the day. After a dry start, clouds
and rain chances will increase with showers most likely over the
Southern Midlands and CSRA and the heaviest rainfall likely
passing to our south Sunday night. Temperatures on Sunday will
likely be above normal.

An upper trough dives into the Eastern CONUS from the northwest
on Monday ushering in a modified Canadian air mass behind a
reinforcing cold front. While this will result in dry conditions
for the remainder of the extended, it will also drop
temperatures with Monday night being of particular concern for
possible frost/freeze conditions. Winds are expected to be gusty
on Monday behind the front and may remain elevated into Monday
night which would in turn limit how cold temperatures get. Highs
on Monday will be near to below normal and below normal Tuesday.
Temperatures recover during the mid-week period as the trough
passes to our east and ridging gradually builds to our west.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR. SKC at all terminals with some high clouds moving in late in
the period. Some reduced visibilities with smoke in the area due to
prescribed burning, but should remain 6SM or higher. Winds southwest
mainly less than 10 kts, becoming light and variable to calm
overnight. Winds increasing again out of the southwest Friday
morning 8-12 kts, with gusts of 15-20 kts.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Cold front approaches Friday with
showers and storms and possible associated restrictions mainly
Friday afternoon through Friday night. Another round of restrictions
possible Sunday night into Monday.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...Air Quality Alert until midnight EDT tonight for SCZ016-018-
     020>022-025>031-035-037-038-041-135>137.
GA...Air Quality Alert until midnight EDT tonight for GAZ064-065.

&&

$$


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