Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC

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000
FXUS62 KCAE 140754
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
354 AM EDT Thu Mar 14 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Well above normal temperatures are expected to continue into
the weekend. Moisture increases Friday ahead of a frontal system
leading to scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms. The
front is anticipated to stall near the area over the weekend
resulting in additional rain chances. A cooler and drier air
mass moves in early next week with chilly temperatures at night.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
High pressure remains centered just to the south of the forecast
area early this morning with clear skies in place across the
entire forecast area with a dry air mass in place with satellite
derived PWATs around half an inch. This dry air is expected to
persist through the day, even as the surface high moves offshore
and winds increase out of the southwest. Upper ridging and warm
advection strengthening the second half of the day will support
temperatures a few degrees warmer than yesterday with highs
mainly in the low 80s. Winds remain out of the southwest
overnight with a strengthening low level jet and some high
clouds moving in late interfering with radiational cooling as
lows remain mostly in the mid-50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Surface and upper ridge offshore by early Friday. Low amplitude
trough across the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley amplifies in the
afternoon and evening. Deep upper low remains out in the Desert
Southwest region. As the northern stream short wave amplifies a
cold front east of the Mississippi Valley will be approaching
the Carolinas. Ahead of the front, moisture flux will be
increasing aided by 30 to 40 kt south-westerly 850mb jet.
Precipitable water increase to around 1.5 inches or about 225%
of normal for this time of year. Models continue to suggest
a limited degree of instability ahead of the front. Ensembles
are showing higher probabilities for moderate instability
across Ga and weaker instability northeast into SC. Deep layer
shear appears strongest in the evening and overnight.


00z HRRR and RAP models suggest some decaying convection will
come over the Mountains in the morning then re-develop in the
afternoon as front moves closer to the area and southern stream
low-amplitude mid level short wave approaches to provide
additional lift into the evening. SPC has marginal risk of
severe thunderstorms for the area. Perhaps a strong storm could
develop in the afternoon as soundings do show an inverted V and
dew points rise into the low 60s but overall CAPE appears long
and thin. By evening when lift is the strongest, instability
should be more limited. Expect convection to be scattered
through the afternoon then increase in coverage into the evening
especially across the southeast Midlands and CSRA. So well
above normal temperatures expected...upper 70s to low 80s. Mild
temps overnight...near 60.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
The front stalls near the area Saturday and although the deeper
moisture is likely to be south of the region, will keep slight
chance pops mainly during the morning based on NBM and EC
ensemble guidance. GFS ensemble is drier. Models continue to
indicate a weak low will develop along the Gulf coast and track
northeast along the frontal boundary near or just south of the
area. The deeper moisture appears to be south of the area but
guidance continues to indicate chance pops (mainly south
Midlands/CSRA) through Sunday. As the upper trough over the
Upper Midwest and northeastern states amplifies across the
eastern CONUS Sunday into Monday. This will drive another front
through the area early Monday. A modified Canadian air mass
will spread into the area through midweek. Frost and freeze
concern Tuesday morning.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR Conditions expected through the 24 hour TAF period.

Light winds and clear skies currently in place at all terminals
with high pressure centered over the forecast area. Not
completely out of the question that a brief period of visibility
restrictions observed at AGS but confidence remains too low to
include in TAF at this time. As this surface high shifts
offshore later today, winds will increase out of the SSW to
around 5 knots. Some higher clouds may pass over the terminals
towards the end of the period but otherwise clear skies
continue.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Cold front approaches Friday with
showers and storms and possible associated restrictions into the
weekend.

&&


.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
GA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
HYDROLOGY...


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