Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC

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FXUS62 KCAE 151736

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
136 PM EDT Wed Aug 15 2018

A weak surface trough will remain stretched near our
southeastern forecast area this evening, providing a slight
chance of afternoon/evening showers and thunderstorms for that
area. Otherwise, fair and warm with drier air and upper ridging
keeping the forecast dry overnight and into Thursday morning.
An upper trough and increasing moisture will provide a return to
scattered afternoon/evening thunderstorms Friday through the
weekend into early next week.


Today: Pwat values remain low across the area, with values
across the Midlands as low as 1 inch. Higher values do exist
along the NC/SC border, and across the coastal plain.  The dry
air, combined with a mid- level capping inversion, should help
to inhibit convection over most areas. Exception may be closer
to the higher pwat values. Will continue to carry only slight
chance pops over far eastern Midlands in vicinity of the stalled
frontal boundary, along with adding slight chance across
portions of the Pee Dee and Catawba Regions, closer to the slightly
deeper moisture. Temperatures will be warm again with highs in
the lower to mid 90s.

Tonight: Isolated rainfall will dissipate by sunset. Another
relatively dry night across the cwa, with skies mostly clear and
light winds. Can not rule out brief patchy fog at the usual
locations towards sunrise. Overnight lows in the lower 70s.


Southwesterly flow will bring increasing moisture on Thursday.
However, high pressure will remain over the area and mid-level
capping will inhibit convection through most of the day. Precipitation
chances will be better on Thursday evening as the ridge weakens
and a trough approaches from the west. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms can then be expected Friday evening as the upper
trough moves closer and a surface lee trough develops. Temperatures
during this period will be near to above normal with highs in
the low to mid 90s and overnight lows in the low 70s.


The upper trough will start moving over the area Saturday, and be
over the region on Sunday. Atmospheric moisture will therefore continue
to increase with a good chance for showers and thunderstorms. This
first trough will move out Sunday night, but another will approach
on Monday, so diurnal convection will remain likely. A front will
move through on Tuesday and unsettled weather will continue. The
front should stall near the coast on Wednesday, thus convection may
be more concentrated over the southeast Midlands.


Generally VFR conditions expected through the 24 hr forecast.

Dry air mass remains in place and will limit convection to the
Coastal Plain, so taf sites remain dry. Expect scattered VFR
cumulus deck to remain through the afternoon, then become mostly
clear overnight. Winds around 5 knots, variable at times through
the afternoon, then becoming light and variable overnight. With
light winds and mostly clear skies tonight, can not rule out
patchy fog near bodies of water once again.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...There may be areas of late night and
early morning stratus and fog. There will also be a chance of
mainly afternoon and evening thunderstorms Thursday through




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