Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37

000
FXUS62 KCAE 190055
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
855 PM EDT Mon Mar 18 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Some freezing temperatures are possible tonight and early
Tuesday morning across the northern and western Midlands. Dry
weather and warmer temperatures follow during the middle of next
week. Our next storm system is expected to develop across the
southeast late in the week and bring increased chances of rain
Friday and Saturday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
Batch of clouds continues to move through the northern Midlands
and Pee Dee with much lower dewpoints moving into the western
Midlands. Winds have also remained around 10 mph with gusts to
15 mph so temperatures have been a bit slower to fall however
with the drier air temperatures will also begin falling.
Continue to expect overnight lows in the western counties will
fall to freezing or below so the freeze warning will continue
through early Tuesday morning. Elsewhere expect overnight lows
generally in the mid 30s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
After a cold start, deep northwest flow will build in at low
levels  and aloft Tuesday behind the sharp trough axis and will
continue the strong cold-dry advection into the area. PWAT`s
will fall below 0.2" and cold advection will strongly mitigate
any diurnal heating or downsloping, so temps will stay below
average and top out right around 60F. Cold advection will
steadily weaken overnight Tuesday into Wednesday, but winds will
still prevent ideal cooling. So overnight lows will be
noticeably warmer than Monday night. With little-no advection to
speak of, downsloping flow and diurnal heating will help
rapidly warm temps back into the 70`s Wednesday afternoon. A
very weak dry front is then expected to move across the area
late Wednesday into Thursday as a low pressure system moves
across the Ohio Valley. Moisture will be so limited that only
some mid-level clouds are expected, but a marked wind shift from
the northwest to east will occur by Thursday morning.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Confidence is increasing overall in the long term period as a
clearer picture for the SW CONUS trough is no evident in the
GEFS  and EC ensemble members. Thursday is generally a
transition day, with fairly high confidence that we will remain
warm and dry ahead of the approaching trough. As now seen in the
GEFS and EC (both operational and ensembles), the SW Conus
cutoff mid- level low will phase with some stronger southern
stream flow and eject eastward Thursday. Strong warm-moist
advection will occur ahead of the shortwave across our area by
late Thursday night and throughout much of the day Friday. The
ensemble solutions nearly universally show a widespread
isentropic lift setup with a wedge-like surface ridge in place
lee of the Appalachians, as PWAT`s climb to around 150% of
average. So a fairly classic setup for the region for a fairly
prolonged light-moderate overrunning rain event. The trough then
will push east and likely develop some sort of coastal low
pressure into Saturday. Rainfall totals are still a bit
uncertain but confidence is much higher in the PoP`s than 24
hours ago. Drier and cooler air will fill in behind the coastal
low late Saturday and Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
High confidence in VFR conditions through the TAF period.

Skies continue to clear out as of 00z and are then expected to
remain clear through the rest of the TAF period. West to
northwest winds of 10-15 kts, gusting to 20-25 kts continue
through about 06z before diminishing to generally less than 10
kts. Winds pick up again after 18z-19z, gusting to near 20 kts.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Rain and associated restrictions
possible Friday.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...Lake Wind Advisory until 8 AM EDT Tuesday for SCZ016-018-
     020>022-025>031-035-037-038-041-115-116-135>137.
     Freeze Warning from 5 AM to 8 AM EDT Tuesday for SCZ016-018-
     020-021-025-026-115-116.
GA...Lake Wind Advisory until 8 AM EDT Tuesday for GAZ040-063>065-
     077.
     Freeze Warning from 5 AM to 8 AM EDT Tuesday for GAZ040-063-
     064.

&&

$$


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.