Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC

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FXUS62 KCAE 312247
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
647 PM EDT Tue Mar 31 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure will move east of the forecast area overnight as
dry weather and more seasonable temperatures will return
through Saturday. A weakening cold front will move into the
area Sunday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
Showers and isolated thunderstorms have generally moved east of
the forecast area as a surface low near Statesboro GA continues
to shift to the coast and push offshore this evening. Regional
radar shows scattered showers over the far eastern Midlands but
these should clear by 8pm. The upper trough currently over the
OH/TN Valleys will move over the area overnight and this may
bring additional light rain to the forecast area during the
10p-3a time frame. Cooler air will advect into the area with
northwesterly winds, gusty at times overnight, as high pressure
builds into the area in the wake of the exiting low.
Temperatures will fall back to near normal values, with lows in
the mid to upper 40s by Wednesday morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Surface high pressure and upper level ridging will build into area
Wednesday and remain in control through Friday. Clouds will decrease
Wednesday as a cooler and drier airmass overspreads the region. PWAT
values will be one half inch or less. Cold air advection will hold
high temperatures on Wednesday in the low to mid 60s. Winds Wednesday
night will be light and with mostly clear skies radiational cooling
conditions will be excellent. This will allow overnight lows to fall
into the low to mid 40s. The upper level ridge will continue
building into the region Thursday through Friday night. A dry air
mass will remain in place with mostly clear skies and moderating
temperatures. High temperatures on Thursday will be in the upper 60s
and lower 70s, then warm into the low and mid 70s Friday. Overnight
low will be in the mostly in the 40s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
High pressure will move off the coast Saturday allowing moisture to
return for the beginning of next week. A weakening front will move
into the area Sunday. The chance for showers or thunderstorms will
return Sunday through Tuesday as moisture and instability increase.
Temperatures will be above normal through the long term.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Surface low currently just to our south will quickly track to the
east this evening while main upper trough moves through overnight.
In the near term, radar indicates main rain area moving out of our
forecast area (FA).  However, moisture wrapping around the surface
low combining with lift from the upper trough, may provide patchy
light rain tonight, along with lowering of CIGS. Will expect IFR to
MVFR CIGs early, then trending a little higher later tonight but
will keep it MVFR. Wind will shift to NW behind the departing
low tonight as well, and the wind will preclude fog. Guidance
indicating the lower clouds to gradually shift east of the TAF
sites late tonight/early Wednesday morning, then VFR expected
Wednesday.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR generally expected Wednesday
afternoon through Saturday. Late night/early morning localized
ground fog possible at fog prone AGS Fri/Sat.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.

&&

$$


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