608
FXUS62 KCAE 202349
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
749 PM EDT Fri Jun 20 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A frontal boundary remains stalled near the area, but mostly dry
conditions are expected overnight tonight. Upper ridging builds
into the region over the weekend bringing a warming trend. A
few showers or storms possible Saturday followed by mainly dry
conditions. Very hot conditions expected next week under the
continued influence of the upper ridge.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
Key Message(s):

- Near normal overnight lows with dry conditions expected into
  Saturday morning.

GOES satellite imagery shows drier air in the region with
PWAT`s between 1.0-1.25" across the FA. A diffuse surface front
remains stalled across the southern FA into the Coastal Plain
and the sea breeze is pushing inland, allowing an isolated storm
to form in the Coastal Plain, just south of the FA. While an
isolated shower/storm cannot be ruled out in the eastern
Midlands over the next hour or two, mostly dry conditions are
expected the remainder of this evening and into Saturday morning
as upper ridging starts to build into the region. Overnight
lows tonight fall into the upper 60s to low 70s with mostly
clear skies expected into the morning hours Saturday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Key Message(s):

- High pressure starts to build in with a steady warming pattern
  through the weekend.

The stalled boundary from Thursday`s front will lift northward
by Saturday morning, erasing the sharp dew point gradient and
surface dew points across our entire area will climb to around
70 F. The low-deep ridging will begin to build across the area
Saturday and again into Sunday, with deep subsidence aloft and
therefore little rain chances, outside of some coastal plain sea
breeze in the evenings. Temps both Saturday and Sunday will be
in the mid-90`s with only some scattered cumulus around.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Key Message(s):

- Hot, even by our typically high standards, throughout all of
  next week.

A broad and highly anomalous ridge will build into the eastern
US throughout all of next week, centered across the Mid-Atlantic
where the warmest relative temps will be. EC EFI and NAEFS prog
the heights and temps for our to "only" be a 90th percentile
type event for our area, while a 99th percentile event across
the Mid-Atlantic. This will yield temps for our area generally
5-10 degrees above average, with high temps hovering close to
100 F Tuesday-Thursday. It was typically difficult to get 100+
degrees day in the Midlands and CSRA with above average soil
moisture like we have currently, but this is an impressive ridge
so triple digit highs are possible. Another factor in favor of
exceeding 100 F is slightly below average surface dewpoints and
PWAT`s as we will sit under northwest flow aloft. This will keep
rain chances fairly low and allow for some soil-surface drying
to bump temps a few degrees above guidance. This will also keep
the heat indices somewhat suppressed through Thursday between
105-110; a heat advisory may be needed as confidence increases
but extreme heat products are not expected. Overall, this is a
proper heat wave but is not uncommon occurrence around here in
late June.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Generally VFR conditions expected through the 24hr forecast
period.

It is extremely quiet this evening across the area. Drier air
has worked its way into the area, with PWs less than 1.5". This
has led to no convection this evening, and even limited cumulus
this afternoon. Light winds and clear skies are expected
tonight, with a slight chance of some ground fog at AGS given
they are our problem pot for fog. Utilized PROB30 to communicate
this possibility as a 30ish percent probability of fog seems
pretty reasonable in this set up. There may be an isolated
shower or two tomorrow afternoon but coverage looks low enough
to keep even VCSH out of the TAFs.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Diurnal shower and thunderstorm
activity is possible through the weekend, which could bring
associated restrictions.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
GA...None.

&&

$$