


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
608 FXUS62 KCAE 202349 AFDCAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Columbia SC 749 PM EDT Fri Jun 20 2025 .SYNOPSIS... A frontal boundary remains stalled near the area, but mostly dry conditions are expected overnight tonight. Upper ridging builds into the region over the weekend bringing a warming trend. A few showers or storms possible Saturday followed by mainly dry conditions. Very hot conditions expected next week under the continued influence of the upper ridge. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM SATURDAY MORNING/... Key Message(s): - Near normal overnight lows with dry conditions expected into Saturday morning. GOES satellite imagery shows drier air in the region with PWAT`s between 1.0-1.25" across the FA. A diffuse surface front remains stalled across the southern FA into the Coastal Plain and the sea breeze is pushing inland, allowing an isolated storm to form in the Coastal Plain, just south of the FA. While an isolated shower/storm cannot be ruled out in the eastern Midlands over the next hour or two, mostly dry conditions are expected the remainder of this evening and into Saturday morning as upper ridging starts to build into the region. Overnight lows tonight fall into the upper 60s to low 70s with mostly clear skies expected into the morning hours Saturday. && .SHORT TERM /7 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... Key Message(s): - High pressure starts to build in with a steady warming pattern through the weekend. The stalled boundary from Thursday`s front will lift northward by Saturday morning, erasing the sharp dew point gradient and surface dew points across our entire area will climb to around 70 F. The low-deep ridging will begin to build across the area Saturday and again into Sunday, with deep subsidence aloft and therefore little rain chances, outside of some coastal plain sea breeze in the evenings. Temps both Saturday and Sunday will be in the mid-90`s with only some scattered cumulus around. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Key Message(s): - Hot, even by our typically high standards, throughout all of next week. A broad and highly anomalous ridge will build into the eastern US throughout all of next week, centered across the Mid-Atlantic where the warmest relative temps will be. EC EFI and NAEFS prog the heights and temps for our to "only" be a 90th percentile type event for our area, while a 99th percentile event across the Mid-Atlantic. This will yield temps for our area generally 5-10 degrees above average, with high temps hovering close to 100 F Tuesday-Thursday. It was typically difficult to get 100+ degrees day in the Midlands and CSRA with above average soil moisture like we have currently, but this is an impressive ridge so triple digit highs are possible. Another factor in favor of exceeding 100 F is slightly below average surface dewpoints and PWAT`s as we will sit under northwest flow aloft. This will keep rain chances fairly low and allow for some soil-surface drying to bump temps a few degrees above guidance. This will also keep the heat indices somewhat suppressed through Thursday between 105-110; a heat advisory may be needed as confidence increases but extreme heat products are not expected. Overall, this is a proper heat wave but is not uncommon occurrence around here in late June. && .AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Generally VFR conditions expected through the 24hr forecast period. It is extremely quiet this evening across the area. Drier air has worked its way into the area, with PWs less than 1.5". This has led to no convection this evening, and even limited cumulus this afternoon. Light winds and clear skies are expected tonight, with a slight chance of some ground fog at AGS given they are our problem pot for fog. Utilized PROB30 to communicate this possibility as a 30ish percent probability of fog seems pretty reasonable in this set up. There may be an isolated shower or two tomorrow afternoon but coverage looks low enough to keep even VCSH out of the TAFs. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Diurnal shower and thunderstorm activity is possible through the weekend, which could bring associated restrictions. && .CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...None. GA...None. && $$