Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC

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FXUS62 KCAE 231821
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
221 PM EDT Thu May 23 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will be over the region through the end of the week
allowing for above normal temperatures. The ridge of high pressure
will strengthen further over the weekend into early next week,
leading to near-record high temperatures over the Memorial Day
holiday weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Cumulus continue developing across the forecast area however
with dry air in the mid and upper levels coupled with westerly
flow aloft vertical development is limited. Expect much the same
conditions through the afternoon as the upper level ridge builds
over the region and westerly flow strengthens. Have not included
any mention of showers or thunderstorms however an isolated cell
or two are possible. Cumulus will diminish with loss of heating
this evening and with low level moisture remaining expect some
stratus to develop overnight. High temperatures this afternoon
remain on track for upper 80s north to the low 90s in the CSRA.
Overnight lows will be around 70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Models are in good agreement with persistent mid/upper ridge over
the southeastern states resulting in above normal temperatures and
mostly dry conditions. The center of surface high pressure will slip
southwest of the area Friday allowing winds to become northwest.
Downslope winds combined with warming 850 mb temperatures will
produce afternoon highs in mid to upper 90s on Friday.  High
temperatures will be about the same for Saturday. Nighttime lows
will be in the upper 60s and lower 70s.


&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
An amplified upper pattern featuring a Gulf/Southeast ridge and
deep western trough will promote hot/dry conditions over our
region through the long term. Near record or record highs are
possible each afternoon through the middle of next week. Normal
highs for this time of year are in the middle 80s.

With both surface and strong upper ridging across the region,
temperatures are expected to climb into the mid/upper 90s with
possibly some the low 100s in some locations each afternoon. Due
to the expected strength of the ridge, along with a mid-level
capping inversion each afternoon, shower and thunderstorm
activity will be suppressed. Because of the dry conditions,
light winds and lack of humidity, heat indices (apparent
temperatures) may actually be a few degrees cooler than the
actual temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR conditions through much of the period with early morning
MVFR/IFR possible.

Cumulus will continue developing through the afternoon and
early evening hours then diminish with sunset. Main concern
will be potential for fog and stratus forming during the early
morning hours. With little change in the overall pattern and a
low level jet around 25 knots overnight have included mention of
stratus during the early morning and sunrise hours with some
patchy fog at AGS/DNL/OGB. Restrictions will mix out around 15z
with the remainder of the period VFR. Winds will remain
southerly around 6 knots through this evening then return to
light and variable for the overnight.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Late night/early morning
fog/stratus possible along with isolated afternoon/evening
thunderstorms through Tuesday.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record high temperatures
           CAE             AGS
05/25      101 in 2000     99 in 2000
05/26      100 in 1953     100 in 1926
05/27      99 in 1916      99 in 2000
05/28      99 in 1914      99 in 1964
05/29      98 in 1941      99 in 1914

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.

&&

$$


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