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000
FXUS62 KCAE 171714
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
114 PM EDT Wed Oct 17 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
A slow moving cold front has pushed into the coastal plain this
afternoon. Dry high pressure will return Thursday and Friday.
Another cold front will cross the area Saturday with showers.
Much cooler air is expected behind the front early next week
with temperatures below normal.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
The cold front has been slow to move out of the area today. A
few showers earlier this morning mainly across the CSRA and
north Midlands have diminished significantly as the frontal
boundary moved into the coastal plain. Weak cold advection this
afternoon and temperatures should max out in the low to mid 80s
most areas. Drier air begins to advect into the area this
evening and overnight. However there will be lingering low-level
moisture mainly in the east Midlands due to weak warm advection
and shallow isentropic lift tonight. Models also indicate a low
level jet 20 to 25 knots tonight, which should keep temps up a
bit. This is reflected by the higher mav mos guidance. Blended
guidance suggested near 50s north to mid 50s central midlands
and near 60 southeast Midlands/CSRA. Mostly clear northwest
after midnight and partly to mostly cloudy toward the coastal
plain.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Canadian surface high pressure will push into the Ohio River Valley
and Mid Atlantic States Thursday through Friday which will lead to
mostly clear skies and slightly below normal temperatures.

An unseasonably strong upper trough will dive into the Eastern U.S.
this weekend. This upper trough will push a cold front into the
Southeast U.S. on Saturday with showers likely.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Another Canadian surface high pressure system builds into the
Southeast U.S. early next week.  Dry and unseasonably cool weather
is forecast for Sunday through Tuesday. Gulf of Mexico moisture may
try to overrun the retreating Canadian high next Wednesday for a
chance of rain.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR conditions through the 24-hr period. Cold front has moved
east of the area and is now in the coastal plain. Morning
showers have dissipated or moved out of the area. Expect slowly
clearing skies at the terminals overnight with a few mid and
high clouds lingering possibly mainly in the southeast Midlands
near OGB.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
Dry ridging should dominate Thursday and Friday with VFR
conditions. MVFR/IFR conditions are possible Saturday in showers
and thunderstorms with the next cold front, followed by VFR
conditions again for Sunday as another area of high pressure
moves into the region.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.

&&

$$