Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC

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FXUS62 KCAE 261732

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
1232 PM EST Sun Jan 26 2020

Fair weather with seasonal temps expected into this evening. A
weak system will provide a chance of light rain late tonight and
early Monday with another weak system possibly affecting the
area on Wednesday.


Weak upper level system continues moving eastward through the
MS Valley and will cross the forecast area around daybreak
Monday. Current radar and satellite imagery show an disorganized
area of cloudiness with some light rain over eastern LA and
southern MS. Upper level cloudiness will continue to slowly
increase through the afternoon and evening hours with additional
lower clouds moving in early tonight and the early morning
hours. Pwat values remain a concern with predicted values only
reaching 0.70 inches by sunrise Monday. With weak dynamics and
limited moisture have decreased pops overnight with the highest
potential remaining in the CSRA and far southeastern Midlands.
Expect any rain which falls to be light with a couple hundredths
possible through daybreak.

Temperatures this afternoon remain on track for highs ranging
from the mid 50s northern and western Midlands to around 60 in
the southeastern Midlands and CSRA. With increasing clouds
overnight lows will range from the upper 30s north to mid 40s


Scattered light rain may be occurring early Monday morning as a
weak upper level shortwave moves across the area. Qpf amounts
remain light. Activity will push east of the county warning area
(cwa) during the afternoon, with dry conditions then returning
for Monday night through Tuesday night.

Highs Monday generally in the mid to upper 50s. Dry cold
advection will take hold Monday night, allowing overnight lows
to drop back down into the 30s. Areas still remain above
freezing. Tuesdays temperatures climb close to normal with a
good amount of sunshine expected throughout the daytime hours.
Tuesday night lows falling back into the 30s. Moisture will
begin to increase during the overnight hours ahead of the next
approaching weather system, but no precipitation expected to
occur through the night.


Wednesday morning will continue to see an increase in moisture.
By the time any precip reaches the region, temperatures will be
warm enough to inhibit any mixed precip, so all rain expected
in areas that do receive any light precip. Models continue to
show limited moisture with the mid-weeks system as it pushes
east of the mountains, with the majority of the rainfall across
the central/southern cwa. Have continued with general trend of
slight chance pops from Wednesday afternoon into the evening.
Clouds and light rain should keep temperatures mainly in the 50s
for Wednesday. This system will push east of the area Wednesday
night, with dry weather on Thursday. Weak high pressure east of
the Appalachians on Thursday may create weak wedge conditions
through the day, once again only allowing afternoon temperatures
to reach the lower to middle 50s. Thursday night dry with lows
in the 30s.

Uncertainty remains Friday into the weekend. Some moisture may
be returning to the region through the day Friday, bringing
isolated light showers back to the area by the afternoon. Better
moisture may be overspreading the region Friday night into
Saturday, allowing better coverage of light rain by Saturday.
Drying occurs Saturday night into Sunday.


VFR conditions through much of the 24-hr TAF period with low
clouds moving in toward daybreak Monday.

Upper level low continues moving through the western Gulf States
and will cross the terminals toward daybreak Monday. Moisture
with the system will be limited so have remained with VFR
conditions with mention of VCSH and will adjust as confidence
in coverage and timing increase. Winds through the period will
be westerly at 8 knots of less.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Restrictions possible through Monday
afternoon as a disorganized system moves across the area.
Restrictions again possible late Wednesday into Thursday as the
next system crosses the region.




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