Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC

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FXUS62 KCAE 051559
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
1159 AM EDT Wed Aug 5 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
Increasing moisture along with an upper level trough and higher
daytime temperatures today through the weekend will result in
chances of showers and thunderstorms each day.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Showers and thunderstorms continue across the eastern Midlands
with some locally heavy rain and will monitor the potential for
localized flooding.

The upper level trough will remain west of the area through
tonight with short waves rotating through the axis of the trough
and into the forecast area. Although the eastern Midlands have
been mostly cloudy this morning elsewhere plenty of sunshine has
pushed the temperatures into the mid 80s with satellite imagery
showing cumulus beginning to develop. Low level flow will remain
south-southeasterly today pushing pwat values to near 2 inches
by late afternoon. WV imagery shows plenty of dry air aloft and
concern will become potential for wind gusts from thunderstorms
which develop this afternoon. Expect convective coverage to
increase slowly over the next couple of hours with additional
cells quickly developing during the mid and late afternoon hours
as outflow boundaries are produced and collide. With the
potential for wind gusts most of the forecast area is included
in the SPC Main marginal risk of severe area. With the high pwat
values and cells this morning being highly efficient rainfall
producers the area is also under a WPC marginal risk of
excessive rainfall. Convection will diminish with sunset
however with numerous boundaries expected across the area and
additional short waves rotating through expect some cells to
persist overnight. High temperatures this afternoon will be in
the upper 80s to low 90s with overnight lows in the low 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Upper level trough across the lower Mississippi Valley with
several weak short waves moving northeast across Georgia and
South Carolina in southwest flow aloft. Weak surface
front/trough will remain near the area. Air mass moist with
precipitable water 1.75 inches or higher and moderately
unstable through the period. High resolution CAMS and mos
support scattered showers and thunderstorms mainly in the
afternoon and evening with convergence enhanced near the
front/trough, sea breeze activity and possible short wave
triggers. Temperatures near normal with max temps in the low 90s
and min temps in the low 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Fairly typical early August weather is in store through the weekend
and into early next week. The are will sit between a weak jet stream
over the northern U.S. and the Bermuda High perched across Florida
at the far southern end of an upper level trof. Weak surface
trough across the area and moist and moderately unstable air
mass. Seasonably warm and humid conditions will prevail, with
scattered afternoon and evening thunderstorms expected. Highs
90-95 and lows 70-75 will be the rule.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR conditions for much of the period with convection expected
this afternoon into tonight.

Convection continues east of CAE/CUB/OGB with convection
expected to develop at all terminals this afternoon into
tonight. Thunderstorms which develop will produce locally heavy
rainfall and have the potential for strong and gusty winds.
Convection will diminish with sunset however some cells are
expected overnight. The potential for fog is low as a 20 knot
low level jet however with rainfall there will be potential for
stratus during the early morning and sunrise hours.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Restrictions possible each day in
mainly diurnally driven convection as well as late
night/early morning fog/stratus.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.

&&

$$



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