Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 131927
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
227 PM CDT Fri Apr 13 2018

Tricky forecast with rain and snow chances tonight and early
Saturday. Then another strong low pressure system targeting the
state next weekend.

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday night)
Issued at 213 PM CDT Fri Apr 13 2018

Tonight...The cold front currently progressing eastward across
the state and the southward bound dry line will hang around
Interstate 35 during the late afternoon hours before progressing
eastward out of the forecast area by 1 am. In SE KS...ahead of
the boundary, enough lift and instability will exist to keep
the mention of storms in the forecast through the evening
hours.  Elsewhere, moisture will fill in behind the boundary
across central and western sections of the forecast area. The
strong N/NNW flow may produce a trowel across portions of
northern KS.  How far that sinks into our region will be key
to the rain/snow line. At this time, only a few northern
counties will drop below or hover around the freezing line. That
line is setting up in the vicinity of a Lincoln to Great Bend
Line. Areas to the north and west of that will likely have a mix
of rain and snow while those locations south and east will
experience rain and possibly a few flakes closer to the freezing
line. Snow amounts should not be very significant. The main issue
will be the winds. They will howl this evening and and snow that
falls will be blown significantly and visibilities should
deteriorate.

Saturday...Cold to cool air will reside across the area on Saturday.
NC KS will struggle to warm much above freezing while the SE
sections stay in the lower 50s. high pressure will filter in from
the north and a nice cold pool will advect in to the area, mainly
to the west of the Flint Hills. Cold and unseasonable temperatures
will occur and cause issues for sensitive plants.

Sunday and Monday...High pressure remains entrenched over the
area and temperatures will find it difficult to rebound. Should be
a pleasant day though as the high pressure will keep the winds in
check. Monday will remain under the influence of high pressure. A
rebound in temperatures will also be noted along with winds less
than 15 mph.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 213 PM CDT Fri Apr 13 2018

The area of high pressure finally moves out on Monday. Another low
pressure system and front will slide across the state on Tuesday
and Tuesday night. At this time, moisture seems limited and there
will be little chance for precipitation. If any moisture can be
ushered in, enough positive energy is present that a few storms
could pop along the boundary as it moves east. The best chance,
albeit small would be in far SE KS. We get into a little holding
pattern with a weak high pressure center floating just to south
for the remainder of the week before the next strong frontal
system tromps through Friday and Saturday. Decent moisture will
yield another chance for rain and storms.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 1244 PM CDT Thu Apr 12 2018

MVFR ceilings likely and isolated thunderstorm possible in the
vicinity of kcnu around daybreak. MVFR ceilings are possible at
KRSL/KGBD behind the cold front tomorrow morning. Strong winds
will persist tonight as surface pressure gradient increases ahead
of developing low. Low level moisture will stream low clouds into
southeast KS. KICT will be close to western edge of these clouds.
Front will move through KRSL/KGBD after daybreak with MVFR
ceilings anticipated behind the front.
-Howerton

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 213 PM CDT Fri Apr 13 2018

Very high fire danger is possible on Saturday to the west of the
Flint Hills. Winds will continue to be strong across much of the
area with speeds in the very high region from 25 to 35 mph and
gusty. However, with temperatures forecast to be well below
normal and falling below the extreme category, we are not
expecting any fire weather headlines at this time. However,
caution should still be heeded with regards to fires on Saturday
since strong winds could still make any fires that develop
difficult to control.

Tuesday looks to be another bad day in regards to fire danger with
all of the forecast area in the very high category and areas west
of Interstate 135 in the extreme category. Please plan
accordingly.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    32  42  26  50 /  20  20  10   0
Hutchinson      31  40  24  49 /  30  30  10   0
Newton          32  39  24  46 /  20  30  20   0
ElDorado        34  41  25  47 /  10  20  20   0
Winfield-KWLD   34  45  26  51 /  10  10  10   0
Russell         28  36  20  47 /  60  50  10   0
Great Bend      27  38  22  49 /  40  40  10   0
Salina          34  38  24  47 /  50  60  20   0
McPherson       32  38  23  47 /  40  40  20   0
Coffeyville     41  49  29  50 /  20  10  20  10
Chanute         40  47  28  47 /  20  10  20  10
Iola            41  46  28  46 /  20  20  30  10
Parsons-KPPF    40  48  29  48 /  20  10  20  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory until 6 PM CDT this evening for KSZ070>072-094>096-
098>100.

Red Flag Warning until 7 PM CDT this evening for
KSZ051>053-067>071-082-083-091>095-098-099.

Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT Saturday for KSZ052-053-067>069-082-
083-091>093.

High Wind Warning from 7 PM this evening to 7 PM CDT Saturday
for KSZ032-033-047-048-050.

Wind Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 7 PM CDT Saturday for
KSZ049-051.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PJH
LONG TERM...CWH
AVIATION...PJH
FIRE WEATHER...CWH



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