


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN
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276 FXUS63 KDLH 060548 AFDDLH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Duluth MN 1248 AM CDT Sun Jul 6 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Rain across northwest Wisconsin ends tonight. An isolated thunderstorm or two is still possible this evening across parts of Price and Iron counties. - Seasonal temperatures much of the week with a brief warm up Thursday. - Rain chances return Monday into Tuesday and again late week, but no severe storms currently expected. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 419 PM CDT Sat Jul 5 2025 A cold front was draped across the Northland this afternoon from the North Shore into east-central and south-central Minnesota. Expansive cloud cover was located ahead of the front along with areas of showers and thunderstorms across northern Wisconsin and Upper Michigan. A secondary front/trough was sinking southward across central Minnesota and leading to a line of showers and a few embedded thunderstorms. Clear skies were located behind this activity. The front will slowly clear the region this evening and tonight with chances for showers and isolated thunderstorms persisting ahead of the front. An isolated strong to severe storm cannot be ruled out through this evening across portions of Iron and Price counties in northwest Wisconsin. Current meso-analysis shows around 1000 J/kg of CAPE in that area with minimal shear. The main threat will be wind gusts to 40 to 60 mph. PWATs remain around 2" across northwest Wisconsin as well, so heavy rainfall in any storms will be possible as well. Clouds have been prevalent across northwest Wisconsin through the day, which helps to temper the strong to severe storm threat. Weak high pressure moves through the region for Sunday with generally zonal flow aloft. This will bring dry and cooler conditions with highs in the 70s and dewpoints in the 50s making for a much more comfortable day. A weak trough will slide along the International Border for the evening and overnight hours which may lead to an isolated shower or thunderstorm, but chances will only be around 20%. Clouds then increase Monday afternoon as a stronger shortwave trough embedded in the zonal flow aloft moves into the Northern Plains. This will bring chances for showers and storms to the Northland for Monday afternoon into Tuesday. A marginal risk for a few strong to severe storms is in place Monday afternoon and evening for much of northern Minnesota outside of the Arrowhead. Most of the rainfall looks to occur Monday night, but an isolated stronger storm cannot be ruled out ahead of the system Monday afternoon and evening. Shear looks marginal but conditions may support a threat for some near severe hail as the primary threat. Highs Monday will be in the 70s and lower 80s. Showers and a few non-severe thunderstorms may linger for Tuesday as the system moves through. Highs will again be in the 70s and lower 80s. Temperatures then warm into the 80s for Thursday ahead of the next chance for showers and storms as another trough moves through for Thursday into Friday. The timing of this system doesn`t currently look conducive for severe storms, but that may change as the week progresses. Rainfall chances then linger into the weekend with temperatures pulling back into the 70s. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/... Issued at 1248 AM CDT Sun Jul 6 2025 A cold front has moved through the Northland with drier air working into the region in the wake of the front. Some areas that saw rain yesterday could see some areas of MVFR to IFR fog during the current overnight, particularly KHYR. However, as the drier air continues to work in, winds could stay just elevated enough to prevent more than just isolated fog development. Outside of this fog potential, VFR conditions are expected for the remainder of the period with diurnal cumulus developing today with some Canadian wildfire smoke mainly staying aloft. A few showers could affect the KINL vicinity later this afternoon into evening, but drier air near the ground may just evaporate any rain before it reaches the ground. && .MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/... Issued at 419 PM CDT Sat Jul 5 2025 Dense fog has developed across much of western Lake Superior and is expected to lift this evening. Improvement has already been seen at the head of the lake, but a scan of webcams along the North and South Shores shore poor visibility elsewhere. Once the cold front moves through and clear skies arrive, fog is expected to lift. Northerly winds around 5 to 10 knots tonight turn northeasterly at 5 to 15 knots for Sunday. Winds will then be light and variable Sunday night before becoming northeasterly again Monday at 5 to 10 knots. Chances for showers and thunderstorms then return Monday afternoon. For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt. && .DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...None. WI...None. MARINE...Dense Fog Advisory until 7 AM CDT this morning for LSZ121-147- 148-150. && $$ DISCUSSION...BJH AVIATION...Rothstein MARINE...BJH