Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

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FXUS61 KBUF 241848
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
248 PM EDT Sun Mar 24 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure centered over Quebec will assure that most areas will
experience moonlit skies tonight with another day of full sunshine
on Monday. The start of the new work week will also mark a period of
notably warmer weather. Temperatures will soar into the 50s for many
areas on Monday with the mercury in the 50s and lower 60s for
Tuesday. A slow moving cold front will then lead to the likelihood
of showers Tuesday night into Wednesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Moonlit skies will dominate our weather tonight...as a large area of
high pressure will drift across Quebec to the St Lawrence valley.
While it will not be quite as cold as last night...the mercury will
still bottom out WELL BELOW where it should for this time of year...
generally in the teens to a few single digits. Clear skies...light
winds and our receding snow cover will help out with that.

Monday is guaranteed to be a warmer day throughout the region. The
area of Canadian high pressure will drift to extreme eastern Quebec
where its clockwise circulation will direct notably milder into our
area. H85 temps will be some 10 to 15 degrees C higher than those
from today with readings around 6c supporting afternoon max temps of
50 to 55 F for the vast majority of the region. Unfortunately...a
persistent and rather staunch inversion arnd 3kft will prevent full
mixing or else we would be even warmer. Even so... it will be a nice
day to get some outdoor work done.

While Monday night will certainly be pcpn free...it will become
quite windy for some areas. A 50 knot low level jet sandwiched
between the aforementioned sfc high and a deepening storm system
over the Upper Mississippi valley will impinge upon our region. The
bulk of these winds within the warm advective pattern will remain
trapped aloft by the previously discussed inversion...but in the
typical downslope areas...the south to southeast flow could prove to
be an issue. The biggest risk for strong winds will be found between
Lake Erie and the Chautauqua ridge where 50 mph winds will be
possible. A lesser threat will be found across the remaining higher
terrain of the western Southern Tier and on the north facing slopes
of the Tug Hill where gusts could top 40 mph. Funneling down the
Black River valley is another area worth keeping an eye on. It won`t
be nearly as cold Monday night...as mins are only expected to settle
into the 30s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Mid level short wave will advance toward the region from the upper
Great Lakes Tuesday, with the warm conveyor lifting into western New
York. The day starts out dry, but the strength of the low level
inflow will be efficient in transporting moisture into western New
York by Tuesday afternoon, supporting increasing chances for showers
west of the Finger Lakes. Continued warm advection will send
temperatures well into the 50s, with 60s possible along the lake
plains.

Associated cold front held upstream during the day Tuesday will
surge into the region later Tuesday night, supporting additional
chances of showers. Overall, the 00Z model suite struggling to bring
the surface based instability axis into western New York, but
wouldn`t completely rule out a rumble of thunder along the cold
frontal boundary.

Deep trough to our west will slowly creep east with showers
decreasing in coverage Wednesday from west to east. The best shot of
still seeing a shower will be from the Genesee Valley east and then
across the North Country. Drier weather will gradually return
areawide Wednesday night but it will also turn progressively cooler
behind the front.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
By Thursday the midweek system will be largely to our east...with
perhaps a few leftover showers hanging on across the North Country.
Otherwise high pressure and cooler/drier air will gradually build
across the region Thursday through Friday night and offer a period
of fair dry weather. Temperatures will be right around normal for
the end of March...with daily highs in the mid to upper 40s and
nightly lows in the upper 20s to lower 30s.

After that the medium range guidance packages diverge considerably
for next weekend...with the GFS much more aggressive at bringing a
mid-level trough and surface low across the Great Lakes compared to
the other guidance...which either has a much weaker/more suppressed
system or none at all...with the GEM/ECMWF largely keeping Canadian
high pressure dominant across our region. Given these differences
will lean more heavily toward continuity and a blended approach
for now...which favors largely dry weather and continued seasonable
temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR conditions will be in place through Monday.

Outlook...

Monday night...VFR.
Tuesday...VFR but with the chance of showers far west late.
Tuesday night and Wednesday...MVFR CIGS with showers likely.
Thursday and Friday...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Moderate east to southeast winds will be in place for tonight and
Monday, although winds will freshen across Lake Ontario. Given the
easterly flow though, the choppiest conditions will be found in
Canadian waters. However, with more of a strengthening easterly
component to the wind found across central and western Lake Ontario,
near Small Craft conditions will be possible by Monday from near
Sodus Bay westward.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RSH
NEAR TERM...RSH
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...JJR
AVIATION...RSH
MARINE...JM/RSH


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