Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

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FXUS61 KBUF 142053

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
453 PM EDT Wed Mar 14 2018

An area of low pressure will drift slowly northward through the
Canadian Maritimes tonight. Snow across the region will
gradually taper off from west to east tonight. Scattered lake
enhanced showers are expected to linger Thursday into Friday
with high pressure and mainly dry conditions for the weekend.


A 500mb closed low is located over coastal New England late this
afternoon. The Nor`easter is approaching New Brunswick today.
Northwest flow continues across the eastern Great Lakes.

A continuous moisture feed from the Atlantic has been in place
across the eastern Great Lakes today. Cold temperatures aloft have
led to increased synoptic lift and light to moderate snow has been

An embedded shortwave trough is rounding the top of the upper low
and moving across Montreal where enhanced lift is causing widespread
snow. This is expected to pivot southward across the North
Country/eastern Lake Plains of Lake Ontario through this evening
with accumulating snow continuing into tonight. Due to marginal
temperatures at lower elevations such as Watertown, Oswego and
Sodus, additional accumulations will range from 2-4 inches
whereas accumulations at higher elevations will range from 6 to
12 inches on the Tug Hill Plateau through tonight. A Winter
Storm Warning continues for eastern Lake Ontario while a Winter
Weather Advisory for Wayne, N. Cayuga and Ontario counties goes
through tonight.

Elsewhere...synoptic moisture will diminish across Western NY as dry
air starts to move into the mid-levels. Widespread snow will taper
off from west to east this evening with the exception of the
Southern Tier/Boston Hills and higher elevations around the western
Finger Lakes where an additional 1-3 inches is expected. A Winter
Storm Warning continues for the Southern Tier through tonight. A
Winter Weather Advisory continues for Allegany and Livingston.

Lake enhancement and upslope will continue southeast of the lakes
Thursday while mid-level dry air continues to enter the region. Snow
showers will be confined to these locations with additional
accumulations of 2 to 4 inches expected across the Southern Tier and
Boston Hills. Around an inch of accumulation is expected across the
Tug Hill Plateau region.

Temperatures will drop to the 20s tonight and rise into the low to
mid 30s Thursday.


Thursday night a weak secondary trough/cold front will make its
way across our region...with colder air (850 mb temps lowering
to the negative mid teens) overspreading our region in its wake.
This will encourage lingering synoptically/orographically-driven
snow showers to transition over to more in the way of pure lake
effect snows southeast of the lakes...though with a shorter/modestly
sheared northwesterly flow in place and the best lift largely lying
beneath the prime snow growth region...snowfall rates will probably
not be all that impressive. At this point total nighttime accums
look to range from a couple of inches or so in those regions of
most favorable lake/orographic enhancement to an inch or less
elsewhere. Otherwise...overnight lows should range in the upper
teens to mid 20s.

Friday and Friday night high pressure and much drier air will
gradually build eastward into our region. Coupled with strong mid-
March diurnal effects during the day Friday...this will result in
lingering snow showers diminishing from west to east through this
period...with just some lingering scattered activity left southeast
of Lake Ontario by Saturday morning. Additional snowfall accumulations
through this time frame should be on the order of an inch or less...
with the bulk of these coming Friday morning across areas southeast
of Lake Ontario. Meanwhile it will remain on the cold side...with
highs on Friday struggling to get much above the mid 20s to lower
30s...and lows Friday night dipping into the mid teens to lower

After that...whatever scattered snow showers are left southeast of
Lake Ontario should finally die out altogether Saturday morning as
the aforementioned high builds deeper into our region and strong
diurnal effects resume...with dry and quiet weather then anticipated
for the remainder of the period with the surface ridge and drier air
likely to remain in firm control across our region. As for temps...
these will remain below average with highs mainly in the lower to
mid 30s Saturday only climbing a category or so for Sunday...while
nighttime lows Saturday night should range in the teens to lower


High pressure over the region will maintain relatively dry/quiet
weather with colder than average temperatures through Monday.

A surface low will advance east from the Midwest and potentially
brings a chance of precipitation to our area Tuesday and Wednesday.
However, uncertainty remains high with this next system with respect
to track and its intensity. GFS move the surface low through the
Tennessee Valley then moves it off the Mid-Atlantic coast with another
Nor-easter developing and moving up the Northeast coast largely
leaving our area with nuisance amounts of precipitation. MCMWF-HiRes
tracks the low up across the Central Great Lakes/Ohio Valley and
weakens, becomes closed off (vertically stacked). With such high
uncertainty with lack of run to run consistency with the models have
opted to keep low end chance POPs through the end of this period.

Temperatures likely will remain below climo as we head towards the
latter half of March. Highs should be by this time of year in the
lower 40s then quickly climb to the upper 40s by the end of the

Climate as of (3/14/2018):
Buffalo:   Low: 33F  High: 41F
Rochester: Low: 25F  High: 42F
Watertown: Low: 20F  High: 40F


Snow will gradually taper off from west to east through this
evening. The steadiest snow will lower vsby to a mile or less,
with this transitioning to light snow showers. Northwest winds
will gust to 25-30 kts with some areas of blowing and drifting
snow. Conditions will improve to MVFR from west to east with
the exception of KJHW to KART where snow will continue. IFR
vsbys expected across these terminals through tonight. A brief
period of VFR/MVFR conditions expected late tonight into
Thursday morning before snow showers pick up again mainly near


Friday...VFR/MVFR with scattered snow showers southeast of the lakes.
Saturday and Sunday...VFR.


Northwest winds near 30 knots will continue into this evening. As
the coastal low departs to eastern Canada, the pressure
gradient will relax some, likely ending small craft conditions
for most areas by Thursday afternoon.


NY...Winter Storm Warning until 8 AM EDT Thursday for NYZ006>008.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 6 AM EDT Thursday for NYZ004-005-
     Winter Storm Warning until 2 AM EDT Thursday for NYZ012-019-
     Winter Weather Advisory until 2 AM EDT Thursday for NYZ013-021.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Thursday for LEZ040-041.
         Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for
         Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EDT Thursday for



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