Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 052002
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
302 PM CDT Fri Jun 5 2020

.Discussion...
Issued at 302 PM CDT FRI JUN 5 2020

Message of the Day: A heat advisory is in effect tomorrow from 1 PM
to 7 PM for most counties along the MO/KS border, including the KC
Metro. Temperatures are forecast to be in the low to mid 90s with
heat indices between 100-105. If going outdoors this weekend,
make sure to drink plenty of water and take frequent breaks to
remain safe. There is a chance for an area of storms late tonight
again, in northeast MO. If storms do develop, they are not
expected to be severe. The warm temperatures will continue through
Monday.


Lingering cloud cover this morning has kept temperatures cooler than
originally expected, which is welcome. Clouds are
dissipating/moving out though so we are seeing temperatures increase
quickly now. Lowered highs a few of degrees as a result of the
morning clouds, but still kept them in the upper 80s to low 90s,
with heat indices now expected to range from mid 90s to upper 90s.
We`ve also got WAA occurring around 850 mb, creating a cap over
the area. This and the lack of moisture through the vertical
profile across the area should keep us dry for the afternoon and
evening. There is a convergent boundary currently stretched across
northern MO though, which may help with storm development late
tonight in northeast MO. Model consensus is low regarding storm
chances, but the possibility is there with the surface boundary
and very subtle troughing in the upper levels over that area. If
an area of storms does develop, it is not expected to be severe,
given overall lack of forcing and very limited shear.

Tomorrow, upper level ridging moves back over the area which is
going to make it a warm weekend. A heat advisory is now in effect
tomorrow from Buchanan County, MO south to Bates County, MO and
includes our KS counties to the west from 1 PM through 7 PM. Highs
are expected to be low to mid 90s in the advisory area, with heat
indices between 100-105 degrees. If you plan on spending any time
outside tomorrow, make sure to take it easy, drink plenty of water,
and take frequent breaks in the shade and/or air conditioning.
Sunday will be similar, but heat indices may be slightly cooler.
It is possible another heat advisory will be issued for Sunday.
Not everyone will be this warm though. A surface high will be
moving through the upper MI River Valley, helping keep
temperatures on the cooler side for northeast MO. Highs in the mid
to upper 80s for the weekend with heat indices in the upper 80s
to low 90s are expected. The warm temperatures will continue into
Monday, then we will see pattern change as we head into Tuesday.
It is still very possible Cristobal moves north into MO, helping
cool temperatures and bringing in plenty of rain. If Cristabol
does move into MO, we could see a couple of inches of rain, which
could very well lead to flooding concerns across the area. Cooler
temperatures should also move in for the second half of next week.


&&

.Aviation...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 1228 PM CDT FRI JUN 5 2020

VFR conditions are expected this TAF period. Clouds should move
out shortly, making way for clear to mostly clear skies. Winds
will gradually back to the southeast by the evening. Tomorrow
morning, there could be some patchy fog that develops, but right
now it looks like visibility should stay above 6 statute miles.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Heat Advisory from 1 PM to 7 PM CDT Saturday for KSZ025-057-060-
     103>105.

MO...Heat Advisory from 1 PM to 7 PM CDT Saturday for MOZ020-028-029-
     037-043-053.

&&

$$

Discussion...Atkins
Aviation...Atkins



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