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000
FXUS63 KBIS 220946
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
446 AM CDT Mon Apr 22 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Critical fire weather conditions mid-day today into this
  evening over southwest and south central North Dakota
  including the James River Valley. A Red Flag Warning has been
  issued.

- Winds gusting 45 to 50 mph over most of western and central
  North Dakota today through this evening. A Wind Advisory has
  been issued.

- Unsettled pattern develops for the later part of the work week
  into the weekend. This will bring daily shower chances with
  possibly some thunderstorms.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 359 AM CDT Mon Apr 22 2024

Current surface analysis places low along the Saskatchewan and
Manitoba border, with cold front now working its way through
western North Dakota. Behind the front, winds have switched to
the west/northwest and become gusty. Upper level analysis
places compact low over southern Saskatchewan. Radar showing and
area of reflectivity stretching from north-central into
southwest North Dakota with the initial wave ahead of the upper
low generally in the vicinity of the front. With that said,
little if any precipitation is hitting the ground per latest
observations given the very dry air down low.

For today, current band of very light rain showers continues to
push east. As mentioned before, little if any is hitting the
ground, and actually the biggest concern would be a brief period
of gusty winds with the rain evaporating. Frontal boundary will
continue its eastward track, with winds continuing to increase
in its wake. By this afternoon, forecast soundings over the area
are indicating very deep mixing. This will result in gusty
winds, strongest over western locations where gusts to 50 mph
will be possible. Gust to 45 mph expected over most remaining
locations. The exception may be far north central North Dakota
near the Turtle Mountains where deep mixing is noted, but winds
aloft are not as impressive.

Upper low tracks east over Manitoba bringing the next chances
for showers (generally 30 to 50 percent) primarily to northern
portions of the area. With that said, any showers should remain
quite light and main concern with some will be enhanced winds.
Further south where skies are expected to be clearer, low
humidity values are expected. This will combine with the gusty
winds to bring critical fire weather conditions primarily to the
southern half of our area.

Tonight shower chances will gradually push east. Winds will
decrease but still remain quite breezy, mainly over southern and
eastern areas later tonight as the surface low shifts over
Lake Superior.

Tuesday will see quiet weather as upper ridge over the western
CONUS shifts easterly. Southern and eastern parts of the area
will start out the day a bit windy, but a downward trend through
the day is expected with the departing surface low. Quiet
weather remains into Wednesday.

Ridge pushes east on Thursday, with a persistent active southwesterly
flow pattern setting up for the end of the work week into the
weekend. This will bring daily shower chances, along with some
thunderstorms.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1231 AM CDT Mon Apr 22 2024

Isolated very light rain showers will move through the area
through the overnight hours as a cold front tracks east over the
area. Although little if any rain is expected, these showers
could lead to a brief period of winds gusting around 30kts.
Winds will shift westerly as the front moves through, and will
be on the increase Monday morning, with gusts to 50 mph by mid
day into the afternoon. Additional scattered rain showers will
be possible mainly over northern areas Monday afternoon and
evening, possibly affecting the KXWA and KMOT terminals.
Ceilings will lower over these northern areas Monday evening,
possibly dipping to MVFR levels.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 355 PM CDT Sun Apr 21 2024

Winds will become west to northwest this morning, increasing to
25 to 35 mph with gusts to 50 mph over much of the area by this
afternoon. The strongest winds will be over western portions of
the area. The lowest humidity values in the mid teens to mid 20s
are expected to be mainly along and south of Highway 200, or
over southwest and south central North Dakota into the James
River Valley. Given the strong winds and low humidity values,
critical fire weather conditions are anticipated, and Red Flag
Waring has been issued for the aforementioned areas.

There is a 20 to 50 percent chance of rain showers mainly north
of Interstate 94 this afternoon. With that said, most of these
showers are expected to be quite light with only about a 10 to 20
percent chance of a tenth of an inch or more. A concern at this
point is virga or a very light shower passing through with dry
air down low, which could lead to erratic wind gusts.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory from 10 AM CDT /9 AM MDT/ this morning to 9 PM
CDT /8 PM MDT/ this evening for NDZ001>003-009>012-017>023-025-
031>037-040>048-050-051.
Red Flag Warning from noon CDT /11 AM MDT/ today to 8 PM CDT
/7 PM MDT/ this evening for NDZ017>023-025-031>037-040>048-050-
051.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JJS
AVIATION...JJS
FIRE WEATHER...JJS