Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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000
FXUS63 KBIS 271718
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
1218 PM CDT Sun May 27 2018

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1218 PM CDT Sun May 27 2018

Latest local and regional radar shows precipitation dwindling with
time. Still one area of light showers near Bismarck, and light
showers in the southwest. Expect a lull with a mix of sun and
clouds this afternoon. Adjusted pops/precipiation this afternoon,
otherwise the forecast remains on track.

UPDATE Issued at 851 AM CDT Sun May 27 2018

Scattered thunderstorms have been persistant to develop over
southern portions of the area, generally along and south of
Interstate 94, and then lift to the northeast this morning. Have
updated forecast to address this through the morning hours. Have
also increased cloud cover throughout the area as latest satellite
imagery continues to show high cloud cover covering much of the
area. Expect these storms should taper off by mid-day. Updates
have been sent.

UPDATE Issued at 646 AM CDT Sun May 27 2018

Convective system over central North Dakota has accelerated
eastward and will be exiting the east this morning, probably
before 10 am cdt. Then expect regenerative convection this
evening Southwest spreading east again.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 357 AM CDT Sun May 27 2018

At 4 am CDT a convective system moving through northern North
Dakota will spread moderate to heavy rain across the north central
with strong wind gusts across the central sections to the south
through the remainder of the early morning. Scattered thunderstorms
will form and move east across the James river valley associated
with a warm front across northern South Dakota.

Expect these areas to move east and diminish with time especially
as sunrise approaches.

The morning hours are expected to see a diurnal minimum for
convection as the low level jet regenerates for another round of
active convection Sunday night.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 357 AM CDT Sun May 27 2018

The extended forecast will be quite active with the upper low over
teh great basing lifting north and through the northern plains.
temperatures will also cool with highs Monday through Wednesday in
the 70s to lower 80s. With the precipitable water still on the
high side the potential for widespread moderate to heavy rain is
at least reasonable through the end of the week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 1218 PM CDT Sun May 27 2018

Vfr cigs vsbys forecast this taf period; however another round of
showers and thunderstorms are forecast for the southern terminals
of KDIK/KBIS/KJMS after 06z-21z Monday. Brief gusty winds of 25kt
to 40kt along with and heavy downpours can be expected during this
time. A tempo group was added for each of the southern terminals.
KISN/KMOT will be far enough removed from the precipiation and
will keep them dry through 18z Monday.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KS
SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...WAA
AVIATION...KS



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