Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 170900

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
400 AM CDT Sat Mar 17 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 353 AM CDT Sat Mar 17 2018

Surface ridge was located over northeast ND. Surface ridge will move
into IL by Sun morning. Return flow will bring high dewpoints for
today and tonight. Added patchy fog for this morning mainly over the
Devils Lake basin. Also added patchy fog for Sun morning for eastern
ND and parts of northwest MN.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 353 AM CDT Sat Mar 17 2018

Sunday through Tuesday...The upper ridge over the area will start
breaking down by the end of the weekend, leaving split flow aloft
with several shortwaves entering the Plains. The main upper low
looks to be well to our south, but the models are in reasonable
agreement on northern branch shortwaves tracking across the area.
The first shortwave will come into the Dakotas Sunday night/Monday,
with another one digging down out of Canada into the Red river
Valley by Tuesday. These should bring several days of light precip
chances. At this point it seems like banding potential is fairly
minimal but will keep an eye out for any changes to the model
solutions. Some model solutions are showing some drying aloft at
times which would decrease ice formation and allow some FZDZ. Snow
amounts seem mostly in the 1 to 3 inch range at this point. Temps in
the mid 30s to low 40s on Sunday will be knocked back a bit with
clouds and precip for early in the work week.

Wednesday through Friday...Mid-week should be fairly quiet with
northwesterly flow aloft and high pressure. Flow then transitions to
a more active pattern with another large trough developing over the
northern Rockies by the end of the week. Model solutions have been
fairly inconsistent with a large amount of ensemble member spread
for QPF. Will keep the blended solution with fairly high POPs and a
mix of rain/snow with temps slightly above seasonal averages.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
Issued at 1143 PM CDT Fri Mar 16 2018

Patchy shallow fog may still develop my sunrise with southerly
flow off the surface possibly bringing slightly more moisture with
warmer air mass aloft. At the same time drier air continues to
filter in from the east-northeast at the surface, and consensus
of guidance no longer favors carrying sub VFR conditions at any
TAF sites in eastern ND or northwest MN. This will need to be
monitored around 12Z Sat as an isolated vis restriction can`t be
ruled out, but confidence is low enough that preference is to
prevail VFR. Winds will remain light and generally variable below
10kt through the TAF period.




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